The Punter's In-Play Blog: Berger five clear at the Honda

9:30 - February 27, 2022

A scruffy and unexpected bogey six at the par five 18th took the shine off Daniel Berger's third round at the Honda Classic yesterday but he's still in command. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:20.

Daniel Berger -11 1.282/7
Shane Lowry -6 12.523/2
Chris Kirk -6 20.019/1
Sepp Straka -6 24.023/1
Kurt Kitayama -6 44.043/1
Adam Svensson -5 42.041/1
-2 and 250.0249/1 bar

Daniel Berger began the third round with a three-stroke lead and despite picking up only two birdies on the day, he stood on the 18th tee with a six stroke lead and he was matched at a low of just 1.171/6.

The 28-year-old Floridian had looked in a strong position at the halfway stage with only six players within six strokes of his lead and he was helped tremendously by the fact that five of those six closest challengers posted an over-par round yesterday.

My Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Adam Svensson, met the first lay back target when he played the first third of his third round in two-under-par, hitting a low of 6.411/2, but he lost his way after that, and Austria's Sepp Straka was the only player within six at the start of the day to shoot under-par. He matched Berger's one-under 69.

Shane Lowry was the biggest mover on the day, closing from tied ninth and seven adrift to tied second and five back thanks to a three-under-par 67 and he's Berger's biggest threat today but it's very hard to look past the leader.

The last nine players to hold a five-stroke lead with a round to go on the PGA Tour have all gone on to win and five-shot 54-hole leaders have an 86% strike-rate since 1996.

Only four of 29 have failed on the PGA Tour since 1996 and it's nine years since we last saw it happen. Scott Stallings messed up at what's now called The American Exprees, 12 months after Kyle Stanley threw the Farmers Insurance Open away at Torrey Pines.

The last man to successfully convert a five-stroke lead was Stewart Cink at The Heritage almost a year ago and Berger looks unopposable at the price.

We do have to bear in mind how tough this course is, and how easy it is to go on a poor run. There were plenty of examples yesterday - my man Svensson for starters! And we also have to consider that on the last two occasions that Berger's led through 54 holes he's been soundly beaten...

Berger coolly converted a three-stroke lead in the St Jude Classic in June 2016 but two months later he followed a 62 in round three with a 74 in round four at the Travelers Championship to fall from three clear to three back and tied fifth and he also fell from tied first to fifth at the US Open in 2018.

I'm not sure we can knock him for falling short in a US Open and one could also defend his Travelers collapse by arguing that it's notoriously tough to back up a super-low round but he has shown a fallibility that Lowry and co will be hoping re-emerges today.

I'm going to sit this one out for now and hope for some drama tonight but I really don't expect any. Berger is very experienced, and he spoke after the second round about how he knows where to play to around this track. He knows how to play safe and not take chances around here and that's all he needs to do today to collect.

9:15 - February 26, 2022

For the second day in-a-row darkness stopped play at the Honda Classic yesterday and Daniel Berger fired an impressive five-under-par 65.

Andrew Kozan will return to PGA National this morning hoping to par the 18th hole to make the cut but given he trails Berger by 12, the current leaderboard isn't going to alter once we officially reach the halfway stage.

Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 9:00.

Daniel Berger -10 1.875/6
Chris Kirk -7 9.08/1
Kurt Kitayama -7 25.024/1
Adam Svensson -6 15.529/2
Mark Hubbard -6 27.026/1
Sepp Straka -5 32.031/1
Chase Seiffert -5 60.059/1
Shane Lowry -3 32.031/1
-3 and 65.064/1 bar

Daniel Berger has put up an impressive display so far, playing neat and tidy golf from tee-to-green and gaining more than five strokes with the putter.

The 28-year-old Floridian is enjoying playing just half an hour from his parent's house and he appears in complete control but the stats are certainly against him.

We've seen three players lead the Honda Classic by three strokes this century and the last two were soundly beaten. And the recent record of 36-hole leaders on the PGA Tour suggest Berger is short enough at odds-on too...

Jesper Parnevik hung on to win by a stroke here in 2001 but both Carl Pettersson in 2004 and Aaron Wise 12 months ago finished 13th after leading by three at this stage and we've seen as many as 17 players hold a clear lead at halfway at the Honda Classic since 1996 and only three of them went on to win.

At PGA National, the host course since 2007, seven players have held a clear advantage at this stage and only one of them, Padraig Harrington, has gone on to win. He beat Berger in extra time in 2015 but only after he'd lost the lead after round three.

And on the PGA Tour over the last 15 years, three-stroke 36-hole leaders have a 33.9% strike-rate so statistically, Berger looks too short at odds-on.

That's far too simplistic a way to assess the current situation though and the world number 21 is going to take some beating.

The pre-event third favourite, who drifted out from an opening 18.017/1 to 27.026/1 before the off, doesn't appear to have too much opposition heading into the weekend. The leaderboard is sparse and all the players within seven strokes of Berger were matched at a triple-figure price before the off.

Add in the fact that on the only previous occasion Berger has led by three at halfway he went on to win by three - at the St Jude Classic in 2016 - and he's starting to look fairly-priced at just a shade of odds-on.

I made my bed at the halfway stage of yesterday's second round, laying the leader at 2.26/5 before the afternoon starters began their rounds but that backfired with the likes of Brooks Koepka and Billy Horschel firing over-par in the afternoon.

Berger understandably shortened up as the main contenders fell away so I'm just going to sit it out now but I'm not doing so without hope.

As highlighted in the preview, form at Waialae Country Club and at the Golf Club of Houston holds up brilliantly here which is why I backed Chris Kirk here 12 months ago before the off at 60.059/1. He's been runner-up at both venues and like the leader, he's a four-time PGA Tour winner with a win in the Charles Schwab Challenge on his CV. Kirk won there in 2015 and Berger in 2020.

I've also got one of the Find Me a 100 Winner picks, Adam Svensson, within four of the lead, with another player mentioned in that column, Mark Hubbard, alongside him. Both cement the aforementioned course correlations.

Berger is in a very commanding positions and if he posts another two under-par rounds it's hard to see him getting caught. Leading is never easy though and he gave up a three-stroke 54-hole lead at the Travelers back in 2016 so he's no certainty to kick on and get the job done.

The furthest any winner has trailed at his stage at this venue is only five strokes and Sungjae Im, who sat tied for ninth, trailing by three two years ago, is the only winner not to be inside the top-seven places at halfway so it's highly unlikely that someone from off the pace takes the trophy and Chris Kirk is arguably the best value at this stage.

Kirk is no bigger than 7/1 on the High Street so the 9.08/1 on offer on the exchange looks decent and given how well he's playing, Svensson is no forlorn hope either.

Adam Svensson hits all 18 greens in regulation during the second round of The Honda Classic, becoming the second player to accomplish the feat since the event moved to PGA National in 2007 (first: Cody Gribble, R1, 2017).

? PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) February 25, 2022

I've got my fingers firmly crossed that Svensson can keep in touch today but I can't pretend I'm not slightly worried about his putting given he missed a couple of four-footers on Thursday.

8:50 - February 25, 2022

Last week's wire-to-wire winner of the Genesis Invitational, Joaquin Niemann, briefly threatened to go wire-to-wire back-to-back when he raced to four-under-par through ten holes of his opening round at the Honda Classic yesterday morning.

The pre-event 23.022/1 shot was matched at a low of 6.411/2 but he lost his focus coming in and finished the day on level-par -six strokes behind the surprise leader, Kurt Kitayama.

Due to the fading light, the final group didn't manage to finish the 18th hole so the first round hasn't officially finished but none of the leaders are affected so here's the early standings with prices to back at 8:40.

Kurt Kitayama -6 29.028/1
Daniel Berger -5 5.04/1
Chris Kirk -5 13.525/2
Rory Sabbatini -5 26.025/1
Arron Rai -3 36.035/1
Danny Willett -3 48.047/1
Matthias Schwab -3 55.054/1
Peter Uihlein -3 80.079/1
Andrew Kozan -3 440.0439/1
Brooks Koepka -2 15.014/1
Billy Horschel -2 16.531/2
-2 and 30.029/1 bar

After his third bogey-free spin around PGA National, Daniel Berger heads the market and he's a perfectly fair price at 4/1.

Berger lost a playoff here to Padraig Harrington on the first occasion he played in the event in 2015 and he finished fourth last year. Surrounded by pre-event outsiders at the summit, he's a tempting price at 5.04/1 on the exchange given he's no bigger than 7/2 on the High Street but discretion may well be the better part of valour this morning.

Berger has been tied for the lead after round one once and he's trailed by just a stroke on four occasions and he's finished 51st, 10th, 29th, 33rd and 5th. That's a little off-putting.

Although there's a gap of two strokes to the group of five players tied for fifth, Berger and co are only three shots in front of a huge group tied for tenth and I'm happy to bide my time.

This year's disappointing favourite, Sungjae Im, who shot a four-over-par 74 yesterday afternoon, is the only winner here (2020) to be outside the top-seven at halfway and three strokes back is as far as anyone has trailed at halfway so today's the day to jockey for position.

If you're looking to trade in-running today, bear in mind how tough the Bear Trap is (holes 15, 16 and 17) but watch out for the three-hole stretch on the front nine between holes five, six and seven as they played even tougher than the Bear Trap yesterday.

Scoring opportunities are scarce. A good start can soon unravel and anyone teeing off at the 10th today will find the best opportunity to score between holes 18 and five.

Pre-Event Selection:
Sungjae Im @ 16.015/1

In-Play Trades:
Daniel Berger layed @ 2.26/5
Chris Kirk backed @ 9.08/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 1 ½ u Adam Svensson @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1 ½ u Brendon Todd @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1 u Satoshi Kodaira @ 350.0349/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back ½ u Jim Herman @ 800.0799/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

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