Find Me a 100 Winner: Straight-hitting Todd to enjoy tougher test

As highlighted in the preview, as many as nine of the 15 winners of the Honda Classic at the PGA National have been matched at a triple-figure price before the off so there's a reasonable chance of an upset on the PGA Tour this week.

I've picked out four possible candidates at a triple-figure price, starting with 140.0139/1 chance, Adam Svensson...

Stick with Svensson

This will be Adam Svensson's first visit to PGA National since he finished down the field back in 2019 when a PGA Tour rookie but that appearance certainly showed promise of better to come.

On that occasion the Canadian could only finish 59th but a 64 in round two, which had seen him leap from 86th to fourth, demonstrated that the venue suits him and that's no surprise given he led the Sony Open after round one in his rookie season and that he finished seventh in that event last month.

Waialae Country Club (home of the Sony) correlates superbly with this venue and as many as three triple-figure-priced Honda winners (Russell Henley, Michael Thompson, and Keith Mitchell) finished inside the top-seven and ties with Svensson there a month ago.

Svensson is back on the PGA Tour after winning twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and at 28, and with a bit more experience under his belt, he's arguably better equipped than he was a couple of years ago when he first graduated to the PGA Tour.

I chanced Svensson in the American Express at a juicy price, and he never really got going there but he sat second at halfway in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last time out, so the form is there.

A disastrous 77 in round three derailed Svensson at Pebble and he eventually finished tied for 49th but he clearly has the game to win on the PGA Tour and this venue looks perfect.

Back 1 ½ u Adam Svensson @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Straight-hitting Todd to enjoy tougher test

Despite course form that reads 32-MC-MC-MC, Brendon Todd is an interesting runner this week. He first played the Honda Classic way back in 2009 as a PGA Tour rookie in what was just his fifth start on Tour and he was badly out of form at the time.

He opened with a 74 to sit tied for 100th but rounds of 69, 66 and 72 followed and his 32nd placed finish was his highest on any tour between October and July and his three missed cuts can all be forgiven too.

Todd lost his game completely after winning the Byron Nelson Championship in 2014 but even before that he was wildly inconsistent so those weekends off in 2012, '14 and especially 2019 can largely be ignored.

The rough has been left to grow an inch longer than usual this time around so Todd's straight driving is going to be a huge asset. He arrives in fair form this time around given he finished 16th at Pebble Beach and 26th at Phoenix and 180.0179/1 looks big.

Back 1 ½ u Brendon Todd @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Sony link points to Satoshi

As many as nine of the 15 winners to date at this venue have been from overseas so I'm more than happy to chance Japan's Satoshi Kodaira, who finished 12th at the aforementioned Sony Open last month, despite sitting tied for 112th after round one!

Like Todd, Kodaira is nice and straight off the tee and his sole PGA Tour success to date came at the RBC Heritage in 2018 at Hilton Head. Another exposed and wind-affected track like this one.

His course form figures, reading MC-MC-36 aren't fantastic by any means but he's in fair form this year and the sterner rough will play to his strengths.

Back 1 u Satoshi Kodaira @ 350.0349/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Houston winner Herman can surprise again

Out of form course-specialist, Brendan Steele, Hayden Buckley and Mark Hubbard were all also carefully considered but for my fourth and final pick I've taken a flier on someone seemingly woefully out of form - Jim Herman.

The 44-year-old Florida resident has won three times on the PGA Tour since 2016 and he's been so badly out of form on each occasion that he's gone off at 999/1 every time!

Although his form figures here are generally poor, he finished seventh here on debut in 2015 so the course does suit him and his first success on the PGA Tour, a year later, was in the Houston Open, at the old venue - the Golf Club of Houston. And that's another course that correlates nicely with the PGA National.

Last year's surprise Honda winner, Matt Jones, became the third player to win at both the Golf Club of Houston and PGA National and had Ian Poulter converted a three-stroke lead here in 2015 (matched at a low of 1.53), he'd have joined Jones, Adam Scott and Russell Henley to make it four.

In addition, Stuart Appleby finished second at both venues and the 2015 Houston Open winner, J.B Holmes, was tied for second with a round to go here last year so Herman popping up again and contending might not be the shock his odds suggest it would be.

Back ½ u Jim Herman @ 800.0799/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

I'll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter