Honda Classic: Waialae form offers the best angle in for a PGA National play

Tournament History

First staged in 1972 and originally known as the Jackie Gleason Inverrary Classic, Honda have sponsored the tournament since 1982.

The tournament switched to its current venue 15 years ago when Mark Wilson won a four-man playoff after the event had run into a Monday finish.

The Honda Classic usually attracts a fairly strong field but after last week's stellar line-up at Riviera, where the world's top-11 were all in attendance, this week's line-up is a bit underwhelming.

This is the 50th edition of the Honda Classic.

Venue

PGA National Champion Course, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

Course Details

Par 70, 7,125 yards
Stroke index in 2020 - 71.19

This is the 16th year in-a-row that the Tom and George Fazio-designed PGA National will be used and it's a really tough test.

The course was extensively reworked by Jack Nicklaus in 1990 and it was again tweaked in 2014 and in the 15 years that the event's been staged here the winner has only got to double-digits under-par four times. And on three of those four occasions, including last year, the winner was the only player to reach double-digits under-par.

It's a heavily bunkered course and water is in-play on 13 holes. As most courses are in Florida, PGA National is laid to Bermuda and the greens usually run at around 12 on the stimpmeter.

The PGA National is famous for its intimidating finish which includes the three-hole stretch at 15, 16 and 17, known as the Bear Trap.

The par three 17th was the hardest par three on the PGA Tour in 2018, averaging more than half a stroke over par at 3.533, but it played much easier in 2019 (3.09) after the addition of a new tee-box, positioned 15 yards nearer to the putting surface, and it averaged 3.21 12 months ago.

It's still a tough finish, though, and it's a tough course all round. The Champion Course has been the most difficult par 70 among all non-majors in each of the last four seasons, and in six of the last seven. And it won't be playing any easier this time around given the rough has been allowed to grow an inch higher than usual.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days starting at 11:45 on Thursday

Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2021 - Matt Jones -12 110.0109/1
2020 - Sungjae Im -6 34.033/1
2019 - Keith Mitchell -9 300.0299/1
2018 - Justin Thomas -8 13.012/1 (playoff)
2017 - Rickie Fowler -12 20.019/1
2016 - Adam Scott -9 26.025/1

What Will it Take to Win the Honda Classic?

Michael Thompson only ranked 53rd for Driving Distance when he won here in 2013 but in the next six years, 12th (Adam Scott in 2017) was the worst any winner ranked for DD.

Matt Jones ranked as high as 15th last year but Sungjae Im ranked only 40th two years ago and, with the rough up this time around, finding fairways may well prove more important that hitting it long off the tee. Jones also ranked 15th for Driving Accuracy and Im ranked 10th and I suspect this year's winner will ranking highly for accuracy too.

The last four winners have all ranked first for Strokes Gained Tee to Green and nine of the 15 winners here to date have ranked inside the top-10 for Greens In Regulation.

The 2014 winner, Russell Henley, ranked tied for 26th for GIR and that's the worst any winner has ranked but two of the three men he beat in the playoff, Ryan Palmer and Russell Knox, ranked tied first for GIR.

The ability to get up-and-down regularly is clearly important and in eight of the last 11 years the top scrambler for the week has been placed. In the last nine renewals, 44 of the 57 players to finish inside the top-five and ties have ranked inside the top-25 for scrambling.

This is one of the few events in which a great week with the putter isn't essential. The last four winners have ranked 28th, 38th, 38th and 35th for Strokes Gained Putting and only three of the last 11 winners have ranked inside the 10 for Putting Average.

And finally, although this week's forecast doesn't look too blustery, excellent wind exponents usually come to the fore here.

Is There an Angle In?

Although PGA National is not a links course, it's an exposed and wind-affected venue so the fact that we've seen three Open Champions win here is perhaps not surprising.

Although he's never won a major, Rickie Fowler has a great links pedigree and a decent bank of Open Championship form and Open form came to the fore six years ago too. The winner, Adam Scott, and the runner-up, Sergio Garcia, haven't won an Open but they're both great links players and they've both traded at odds-on to win the world's greatest tournament. Scotty has a decent bank of form at the Sony Open too and that's our best angle-in.

Mark Wilson, Ernie Els, Russell Henley and Justin Thomas, have all won this event and the Sony Open, one of the 2014 playoff protagonists, Ryan Palmer, has also won a Sony in Hawaii, the 2016 winner, Scott, has finished second at Waialae, and Rory Sabbatini, the 2011 Honda Classic winner, has twice finished runner-up at the Sony Open.

Brendan Steele, who traded at odds-on in both the 2020 and 2021 two editions of the Sony, has finished fourth and third here in the last two editions and this year's Sony Open highlighted the association nicely.

Russell Henley, who was matched at a high of 400.0399/1 before winning here, was beaten in a playoff by Hideki Matsuyama. The 1000.0999/1 shock 2013 Honda winner, Michael Thompson, finished fifth, and the 2020 300.0299/1 Honda winner, Keith Mitchell, finished tied seventh alongside Russell Knox, who was matched at 280.0279/1 here before losing in a playoff in 2014.

Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony, is also a wind-affected Bermuda track and the two courses clearly correlate very nicely.

Matt Jones' only previous PGA Tour victory was the Houston Open at what's now called the Golf Club of Houston and that's a course that correlates nicely with the PGA National too.

Jones is the third player to win at both courses and, had Ian Poulter converted a three-stroke lead here in 2015 (matched at a low of 1.538/15), he'd have joined Jones, Scott and Henley to make it four.

Stuart Appleby finished second at both venues and the 2015 Houston Open winner, J.B Holmes, was tied for second with a round to go here last year so that's another angle in to consider.

This is a really stern test so it's perhaps not all that surprising that Major champions fare well. Justin Thomas became the sixth major champion to win at the venue in 11 years when he took the title in 2018, joining Ernie Els, Y.E Yang, Rory McIlroy, Padraig Harrington and Adam Scott.

The Players Championship is often referred to as the fifth major and form at that event is a definite plus too. Following Thomas' win at Sawgrass last year, four of the last 10 winners of this event, and the 2016 runner-up, Sergio Garcia, have all won the Players Championship and the 2018 Players champ, Webb Simpson, perhaps should have also won this. He led after the opening round and he was still sitting second with a round to go, alongside the winner, Thomas, before fading to finish fifth four years ago.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Between 2016 and 2018, all three winners were fairly well-fancied but this is a decent event for outsiders.

Last year's victor, Matt Jones, was matched at a high of 140.0139/1 before the off, the 2019 winner, Mitchell, went off at around 300.0299/1, having been matched at a high of 400.0399/1, and nine out of the 15 winners at PGA National have gone off at huge at a triple-figure price.

Americans won the first 21 editions of this event and they've won five of the last nine editions but since Nick Price broke the initial US run in 1994, an overseas player has won 15 of the last 28 editions and nine of the 15 winners at this venue have been from overseas.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2021 - Matt Jones - led by three strokes 2.245/4
2020 - Sungjae Im T5th - trailing by three 15.014/1
2019 - Keith Mitchell T2nd - trailing by one 9.89/1
2018 - Justin Thomas T2nd - trailing by one 3.052/1
2017 - Rickie Fowler led by four strokes 1.548/15
2016 - Adam Scott solo 4th - trailing by three 7.413/2

In-Play Tactics

History suggests you have to be up with the pace at PGA National and that was certainly the case last year. Jones led after rounds one and three and he sat second at halfway.

Sungjae Im confounded the usual in-running trends two years ago when he sat tied for 63rd after round one, following a two-over-par 72. He trailed by six after the opening day but a four-under-par 66 in round two saw him shoot up into a tie for ninth at halfway and he sat tied for fifth with a round to go.

The inaugural course winner, Mark Wilson, trailed by seven strokes after round one and Scott trailed by five in 2016. But they're the only other two course winners to be more than four adrift after the opening round and every course winner bar Im has been inside the top-seven places at halfway. The 2008 winner, Ernie Els, who sat tied for sixth, is the only winner to be more than three strokes adrift at halfway.

If you plan to bet in-running, especially on Sunday, bear in mind that, while the par five 18th ranked as the second easiest hole on the course again last year, the finish to PGA National is tough enough even when you're not in contention. When there's a title on the line, it's brutal. As a result, we've witnessed plenty of in-play carnage here.

Market Leaders

Sungjae Im is a very worthy favourite.

He's ticked along nicely since winning the Shriners in style in October and while his 33rd placed finish at the Genesis on Sunday wasn't great, he still shot 66 in round two and 67 on Sunday.

Prior to that, having missed the cut in the Sony, Im had finished 11th in the American Express and sixth in the Farmers so he arrives in fair form and without the pressure of defending. He finished eighth 12 months ago with that burden to carry.

With course form figures that read 2-MC-MC-29-36-4, Daniel Berger commands plenty of respect but he's been in the wars again. He pulled out of last year's event before the off with a rib injury and we don't really know his fitness this time around given he missed the AT&T Pebble Beach after contracting Covid. He missed the cut two weeks ago at the Phoenix Open.

Joaquin Niemann is a bigger price this year than he was last, which is something of a surprise given how easily he won the Genesis Invitational, and he went into last year's renewal with course form figures reading 59-MC. He finished 25th 12 months ago and he's bang in form but winning back-to-back is tough.

Selection

Other than the 2020 winner, Sungjae Im, who I thought was fairly priced at around 16.015/1, there appears to be little value at the head of the market and some very short prices about a lot of players who haven't won in ages, or aren't in great form, so a very small play on Im is my only involvement to date.

I like a number of big priced runners though and I'll be back with a rundown of those with the Find Me a 100 Winner column tomorrow.

Selection:
Sungjae Im @ 16.015/1

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