The Punter's In-Play Blog: History suggests Thomas can pounce

• Defending champ cruises clear

• Clear leaders have flopped at Albany

• Thomas the value ahead of round four

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14:55 - December 4, 2022

Pre-event 22.021/1 chance, Cameron Young, threatened to take control of the Hero World Challenge yesterday after racing to six-under-par through ten holes in tricky conditions but having been matched at a low of just 2.6413/8, he played his last eight holes of round three in two-over and that was in stark contrast to the finish put in by the defending champ, Viktor Hovland.

Hovland played his final eight holes in five-under-par and that included a bogey at the 18th!

Hovland hit a low of 1.51/2 before his final hole hiccup but he's still the man to beat. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 14:45.

Viktor Hovland -13 1.75/7
Scottie Scheffler -10 4.3100/30
Justin Thomas -8 16.015/1
Cameron Young -8 18.017/1
Xander Schauffele -7 28.027/1
Collin Morikawa -7 34.033/1
Jon Rahm -4 200.0199/1
-3 and 700.0699/1 bar

Hovland has a commanding lead and with the wind dropping today he should take some catching.

The Norwegian clearly loves the layout at Albany and up until the Open Championship this year, when he shot 74 in round four at St Andrews to fall from tied first to fourth, his record when leading has been strong.

Before that disappointing finish in July, he'd converted three clear 54-hole leads in-a-row so leading won't faze him, but we've already seen today, at the South African Open, when Thriston Lawrence very nearly blew a five-stroke lead with five to play, anything can happen on a Sunday and we've already experienced plenty of drama at this venue...

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, two of the last four 54-hole leaders have thrown away huge leads at Albany.

Charley Hoffman led by five with a round to go five years ago and we witnessed all sorts of carnage last year when the pre-event 8/1 favourite, Morikawa, also threw away a five-stroke lead.

Having been a 1.282/7 chance on Sunday morning, the Open champ was matched at a low of just 1.081/12 before he lost his ball on the fourth hole and we finished up witnessing five different players take the lead on Sunday before Hovland, who was matched at 180.0179/1 in-running, finally assumed command late on with back-to-back eagles at 14 and 15.

With all that in mind, laying the leader at 1.75/7 and trading the event in-running, laying anyone else that trades at odds-on, is one way to play the event but instead of laying Hovland, I've had a speculative play on Justin Thomas, who has made a habit of winning tournaments from off the pace.

Thomas shot 64 to defend the CIMB Classic title back in 2015, having trailed by four with a round to go and he won the St Jude Classic in 2020 by three strokes, having trailed by four with a round to go, thanks to a final round 65. He shot 64 at the WGC Mexico Championship in round four back in 2018 before losing a playoff, having trailed by four through 54 holes, and he won the US PGA Championship in May having trailed by seven after three rounds!

If Hovland does have a humdrum day, Thomas looks fairly-priced to swoop.

18:45 - December 3, 2022

The third round of the Hero World Challenge is well underway and live on Sky but both this week's DP World Tour events - the Australian Open and the South African Open - have both reached the 54-hole stage.

The halfway leader Down Under, Adam Scott, took his time to get going today but after turning in one-over-par, he birdied the 12th and 14th before holing this monster for eagle at the 18th.

Adam Scott takes the clubhouse lead at the last!

He eagles the 18th for the second day in a row. #AusOpenGolf pic.twitter.com/Ng9ox6VrR1

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) December 3, 2022

That took Scotty back to the front but he'll have his work cut out tomorrow and I'm not sure he's great value at odds-on. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 18:30.

Adam Scott -11 1.845/6
Adrian Meronk -10 3.55/2
Min Woo Lee -7 10.519/2
Haydn Barron -7 55.054/1
-6 and 100.099/1 bar

Scott has a 50% conversion rate when leading or tied for the lead in his homeland (4/8) and a 66% strike worldwide and one of those converted leads Down Under came in this event back in 2009. He's the man to beat and the fact he's already won this title is a plus.

Adrian Meronk led for much of the third round and he's clearly the biggest danger to the leader but Min Woo Lee at in excess of 9/1 may represent better value for those looking for a sporting wager.

Over at the South African Open, Thriston Lawrence, who led after rounds one and two, looked like pulling away from the field after a blistering start to round three but to his credit, Clement Sordet has clung on to his coattails admirably. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 18:40.

Thriston Lawrence -18 1.584/7
Clement Sordet -16 4.131/10
-12 and 65.064/1 bar

Sordet was really impressive today and he kept the pressure on Lawrence brilliantly but the South African repeatedly responded equally well.

Sordet holed for birdie at both the 17th and 18th holes but Lawrence followed him in on both occasions and he looks very hard to beat.

Lawrence does have the pressure of attempting to win his home Open and that may well be a huge factor but he's yet to show any sign of nerves and I'm confident that he'll convert.

With the threat of stormy weather, play starts early tomorrow and the leaders will tee off at 7:00 UK time.

I'll be back in the morning with a look at the Hero World Challenge with a round to go.

22:45 - December 2, 2022

Despite feeling that he isn't playing well, the defending champion, Viktor Hovland, will head into the weekend at the Hero World Challenge, with a one stroke lead.

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 22:30.

Viktor Hovland -5 5.79/2
Scottie Scheffler -4 5.24/1
Xander Schauffele -4 6.25/1
Cameron Young -4 9.417/2
Collin Morikawa -4 8.88/1
Tom Kim -3 15.014/1
Justin Thomas -2 14.013/1
Billy Horschel -1 60.059/1
Sepp Straka -1 100.099/1
Jon Rahm Ev 21.020/1
Tony Finau Ev 36.035/1
Matt Fitzpatrick Ev 60.059/1
+1 and 150.0149/1 bar

With 12 of the world's best players within five strokes of Hovland's halfway lead, it's hardly surprising that it's still 4/1 the field.

The last two winners have trailed by four strokes at halfway and the 2017 winner, Rickie Fowler, trailed by five, so although two of the six previous winners at Albany were tied for the lead at halfway, the tournament is clearly still wide open.

After almost holing his tee-shot on the par four 14th on Thursday, Hovland slam-dunked his third shot on the par five sixth today, so he's caught a break or two and he might be worth taking on over the weekend.

SLAM DUNK!

Viktor Hovland holes out for eagle on the par-5 No. 6. pic.twitter.com/RMRBzYEPW7

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) December 2, 2022

Scheffler impressed in round two but that hasn't been missed by the market. Scheffler is the new favourite as we head into the weekend and that's perfectly correct but I'm happy to sit on my hands for now.

Yet more windy weather is predicted for round three and I'm more than happy to sit back and see what happens tomorrow.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, we've witnessed some extremely dramatic finishes at Albany and with the wind predicted to ease slightly on Sunday I'm happy to wait and survey the situation again after 54 holes.

17:35 - December 2, 2022

As so often happens in the Joburg area, storm clouds gathered this afternoon and the risk of lightning led to a suspension in play at the South African Open at 15:10 local time.

The threatening front refused to budge and a couple of hours later play was suspended for the day, so we return in the morning at 7:00 local time to finish off round two.

Of the many players yet to finish their second rounds, none are any closer than seven strokes adrift of the leader, Thriston Lawrence, and he looks a very fair price on the exchange at around 6/4.

Lawrence leads by two over Ockie Strydom, who broke the course record this morning, and by three over the French outsider, Clement Sordet, and the South African amateur, Christian Mass, with Sweden's Jens Fahbring alone in fifth, four strokes adrift.

Incredible golf @OckieStrydom

A course record and a bogey-free round of 63 (-9) at Blair Atholl Golf & Equestrian Estate.#InvestecSouthAfricanOpen pic.twitter.com/SSlwTsMTSi

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) December 2, 2022

It's not often I side with a short one in-play, but I'd have Lawrence much closer to an even money shot given the calibre of the chasers and how impressive he was in-contention when he won the European Masters in the summer so I'm happy to play him at average of 2.56/4.

I'll be back later tonight or in the morning with a look at the state of play in the Bahamas at halfway.

The second round of the Hero World Challenge is well underway, scoring is already tough, and it's live on Sky at 18:30 UK time.

11:20 - December 2, 2022

A week after the pre-event favourite, Cameron Smith, won the Australian PGA Championship, another fancied runner is dominating Down Under at the Australian Open.

Smith went off at around 5/2 as punters fancied the Open winner to back up last week's success but it's another homegrown major winner, Adam Scott, that dominates the market at halfway and given how often one of the market leaders wins these events in Australia, the pre-event 14.013/1 second favourite is probably fairly priced at a shade of odds-against.

Scott is tied for the lead with pre-event 120.0119/1 chance, David Micheluzzi, and the pair are three clear of the remainder.

After a pair of over-par openers, Smith has only just made the cut and he trails the leaders by ten so favourite backers appear to have done their dough.

The second round of the DP World Tour event's other event this week, the South African Open, is still underway and I'll take a look at the halfway stage.

The brand-new venue - Blair Atholl - has been easy enough on the eye but it took the field a little time to get to grips with Gary Player's ludicrously long layout.

Germany's Matti Schmid set the early pace with a six-under-par 66 in the morning yesterday and that looked a fair target compared to the other morning scores, but the afternoon wave averaged more than a stroke less than the early starters and the well-fancied 26.025/1 chance, Thriston Lawrence, managed an eight-under-par 64 to show the way.

Lawrence has just followed that with a five-under-par 67, thanks to birdies at four of his last five holes, and he's very much the man to beat.

Over on the PGA Tour, four men are tied at the top after the opening round of the Hero World Challenge - Tiger Woods' last minute replacement, Sepp Straka, another course debutant, Tom Kim, last year's winner, Viktor Hovland, and the man that really should have won, Collin Morikawa.

Bombs away for Hovland

Inches away from an ace on the par 4 14th. pic.twitter.com/Ux3aunVRju

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) December 1, 2022

We've had six editions of the event at Albany and we're yet to see a first round leader or co-leader go on to take the title so we might be due one but I'm more than happy to bide my time.

As highlighted in the preview, we've seen all sorts of drama at this venue and with more blustery weather forecasted, I'm more than happy to see what today brings.

My sole pre-event pick, Jon Rahm, started quite slowly, with a one-over-par 73, but he only trails by four and there's a long way to go yet. Rahm trailed by six after round one when he won here in 2018 so I haven't pressed the panic button just yet.

South African Open Pre-Event Selection:
Daniel van Tonder @ 44.043/1

In-Play Pick:
Thriston Lawrence @ 2.56/4

Hero World Challenge Pre-Event Selection:
Jon Rahm @ 6.511/2 (Sportsbook - Enhanced Win Only)

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2u Dan Bradbury @ 110.0109/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Sean Crocker @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter