Hero World Challenge: Rahm all set for another repeat win

• World's best head for the Bahamas

• Rahm a worthy favourite for another repeat success

• Albany's a trader's dream

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Tournament History

The Hero World Challenge was first staged at Greyhawk Golf Club in 1999. It moved to the Sherwood Country Club in California in 2000 and remained there for the next 14 years before it switched from west to east and to the Isleworth Golf and Country Club in Florida in 2014, when Jordan Spieth won by an incredible ten strokes.

It moved further south to the Ernie Els designed Albany Course in the Bahamas in 2015 and it's been there ever since, although we missed the 2020 edition because of the pandemic.

The Hero World Challenge is a limited invitation only event with a high-class field consisting of just 20 players that was to includes the tournament host, Tiger Woods, but he withdrew yesterday with plantar fasciitis and he's been replaced by Sepp Straka.

Venue

Albany, New Province, Bahamas

Course Details

Par 72, 7,302 yards

The Ernie Els designed Albany Course only opened in 2010 and it was used for a professional tournament for the first time when hosting this event seven years ago.

It's a par 72 but with five par fives, five par threes and eight par fours, it's a little different from most par 72s as they usually have four long and short holes and ten par fours.

It's an exposed flat links-style course with dunes up to 30 feet tall and the TifEagle bermuda greens are fairly small.

Here's what the designer had to say about his creation prior to the off in 2015.

"It's a very special golf course. If I were trying to paint an outline mental picture for anyone, I'd say think of a mix between maybe Royal Birkdale and the Els Club Dubai. The bunkering is another particularly strong feature and is partly inspired by one of my favourite types of golf course, the Australian sand-belt classics such as Royal Melbourne."

If you want a bit more on the course, here's the hole-by-hole guide.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days - starting at 18:30 UK and Ireland time on Thursday. Coverage starts at 16:00 on Sunday.

Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2021 - Viktor Hovland -18 12.523/2
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Henrik Stenson -18 42.041/1
2018 - Jon Rahm -20 15.014/1
2017 - Rickie Fowler -18 11.010/1
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama -18 10.09/1
2015 - Bubba Watson -25 13.012/1

What Will it Take to Win the Hero World Challenge?

Somewhat frustratingly, they don't produce any stats for this event for some reason, so we're hindered to a certain degree but given the calibre of the small field, I'm not entirely sure they'd be of much use anyway.

It's not easy to sort the wheat form the chaff given the absence of chaff so perhaps current form is our best angle in...

Henrik Stenson was winning his first event in more than two years when he took the title in 2019 but every other winner at this venue, and most of the winners of this tournament, have been bang in form.

Last year's winner, Viktor Hovland, had won the World Wide Technology Championship in his previous start and the man that really should have won, Collin Morikawa, who traded at as short as 1.081/12 in-running before finishing fifth, had won the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai on his previous outing.

Jon Rahm had just finished fourth defending the DP World Tour Championship title when he won four years ago, Fowler had finished second in the World Wide Technology Championship in his previous start before winning in 2017 and Hideki Matsuyama was winning his fourth tournament in five starts five years ago. Bubba Watson was in fine fettle when he won in 2015, having just finished third in Japan, following a decent run in the FedEx Cup, and Spieth had been red-hot when he won this in 2015 in the final event before it moved to the Bahamas.

With the end of the year fast approaching and holidays and downtime on the agenda, it stands to reason that the in-form players fare well. I suspect those that are struggling are just waiting for a break and a chance to regroup next year.

Links and desert form could hold the key

Links form stands up very nicely here, but previous course experience isn't at all important and Hovland, and the man that should have won, Morikawa, tick both those boxes emphatically.

Both were playing here for the first time (as was the runner-up, Scottie Scheffler), Morikawa had won the Open earlier in the year and Hovland was tied for the lead at St Andrews in July with a round to go before eventually finishing fourth.

Rahm had never played here before either when he won in 2018 and neither had the runner-up, Tony Finau, or the first-round leader and eventual fifth, Patrick Cantlay, but those three, and all the winners here, have good form in the desert.

Rahm had Phoenix Open form figures reading 5-16-11-10, Fowler and Matsuyama have both won the Phoenix Open and Bubba Watson has an eighth, a fifth, a fourth and two seconds in the event so the Phoenix Open looks a very solid guide and so does the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.

Had Morikawa not messed up from five in front with a round to go last year, the last three renewals would have been won by DP World Tour Championship winners.

Wind to be a significant factor once again

Albany is exposed to the elements and the forecast suggests wind will be ever-present again this time around. Friday is currently predicted to be the windiest day but we can expect gusts in excess of 20 mph all week long.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

There were one or two reasonably long priced winners at Sherwood and Stenson was relatively unfancied three years ago, but the previous five winners were all very well fancied before the off. Hovland was a 12.523/2 chance last year and when Rahm went off at 15.014/1 four years ago he was the biggest priced winner in the five renewals.

The last three winners have all been European.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2021 - Viktor Hovland - tied third - trailing by six 26.025/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Henrik Stenson - solo second - trailing by a stroke 6.611/2
2018 - John Rahm - tied for the lead 3.4549/20
2017 - Rickie Fowler - tied fifth - trailing by seven 30.029/1
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama - led by seven 1.182/11
2016 - Bubba Watson - led by three 1.654/6

In-Play Tactics

Spieth won by ten strokes at Isleworth in 2014 and the first four winners here won by a clear margin too.
Watson only won by three and Matsuyama by two in the first two editions here but both men were further clear than that at various stages and although neither of them ever looked like losing, this is a quirky track where strange things can happen and two of the last four 54-hole leaders have thrown away huge leads.

Charley Hoffman led by five with a round to go (trading at around 1.75/7) five years ago before Fowler came from seven strokes back and trading at 30.029/1 to win. Having been matched in running at 60.059/1, Fowler fired an amazing 11-under-par 61 to win by four!

And we witnessed all sorts of carnage again last year when the pre-event 8/1 favourite, Morikawa, threw away a five-stroke lead with a round to go.

Collin Morikawa's second double bogey in three holes.

12:57 p.m.: Morikawa leads by 5
1:23 p.m.: Morikawa trails by 2 pic.twitter.com/TW33g4Lp5u

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) December 5, 2021

Having been a 1.282/7 chance on Sunday morning, the Open champ was matched at a low of just 1.081/12 before he lost his ball on the fourth and we finished up witnessing five different players take the lead on Sunday before Hovland, who was matched at 180.0179/1 in-running, finally assumed command late on with back-to-back eagles at 14 and 15.

Away from Morikawa's collapse, there were also all sorts of dramas with plenty of other players in the field...

Scottie Scheffler would have won but for a triple-bogey seven at the fourth hole on Sunday (he was matched at 1000.0 after that and before a late rally) and Sam Burns tripled the 14th in round four to highlight just how easy it is to rack up a big number here.

The first-round leaders last year, Rory McIlroy, Abraham Ancer and Daniel Berger, finished 18th, 14th and tied for seventh, the halfway leader, Bryson DeChambeau, shot three-over on the weekend to finish tied for 14th and Morikawa's closest challenger with a round to go, Brook Koepka, shot 74 on Sunday to finish tied for ninth!

All sorts can happen here, and it can be a great event in which to trade positions.

Market Leaders

Following his third success in the World Tour Championship in Dubai a fortnight ago, the 2018 winner, Jon Rahm, who finished second when defending on his only other previous visit here, is an extremely worthy favourite and I'm not at all surprised to see he's been well supported.

He looks a perfectly fair price with the Sportsbook at 11/2 in the Enhanced Win Only market and he may be one to side with if he starts slowly too.

Rahm has 16 wins to his name, but he's only led after round one twice when winning. He's led after round one nine times in total so there's an argument to be made that he's one to take on if he's in front after day one if he's trading at a short price. As brilliant as he is, he can't be described as a great frontrunner.

World number two, Scottie Scheffler, is the clear second favourite and that's not surprising given he was second on debut last year.

Scheffler is well-rested after a third in Mexico and a ninth in the Houston Open and his chance is obvious, but the bang-in-form Tony Finau could be the man to give Rahm most to worry about.

Finau won the Houston Open in impressive fashion last time out and with course form figures reading 2-10-7, he's expected to contend.

Selection

Jon Rahm commands the utmost respect when playing in any event or at any venue where he's won before.

He's won three Dubai World Tour Championships, three Open de España titles, two Irish Opens and he's won both the Farmers Insurance Open and the US Open at Torrey Pines.

Rahm would have also won the Memorial Tournament when defending in 2021 had he not had to withdraw when leading by six with a round to go due to Covid so he's clearly comfortable at returning to a venue or an event where he's previously tasted success.
.
His victory in Dubai didn't come out of the blue two weeks ago and with current form figures reading 2-1-4-1 and course form figures of 1-2, he's clearly the man to beat and a fair price.

Selections:
Jon Rahm @ 6.511/2 - Sportsbook Enhanced Win Only

I'll be back later with the South African Open preview.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter