The Punter's In-Play Blog: Young up by six with 18 to play

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09:00 - May 3, 2026

Due to the likelihood of poor weather, the fourth round of the Turkish Airlines Open is already underway and live on Sky and with stormy weather forecasted in Miami, the tee-times for the final round of the inaugural edition of the Cadillac Championship have also been brought forward.

Due to forecasted inclement weather Sunday, the final round of the Cadillac Championship will now feature threesomes off split tees from 7:30 - 9:40 a.m.

-- PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) May 2, 2026

The 36-hole leader at Doral, Cam Young, found water with his second shot on the opening hole in round three yesterday and he went on to record a scruffy bogey six but he recovered nicely after that to post a very respectable two-under-par 70 on a tricky, blustery day and that was enough to stretch his lead from five at halfway to six with 18 to play. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back on the Betfair Exchange at 08:50.

Cam Young -15 1.211/5
Scottie Scheffler -9 10.09/1
Si Woo Kim -9 38.037/1
Kristoffer Reitan -9 50.049/1
Ben Griffin -8 110.0109/1
Matt McCarty -8 150.0149/1
Nick Taylor -8 160.0159/1
-7 and 230.0229/1 bar

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, 54-hole leaders don't have a brilliant record at Doral.

J.B Holmes led by five strokes through 54 holes in 2015 but was soon caught and passed, having been matched at a low of 1.4640/85 during round three, and in the 10 editions of the WGC event held here, between 2007 and 2016, there were eight clear 54-hole leaders ranging between two and five strokes clear, and Tiger Woods (twice) was the only man to convert. All eight, including Tiger, shot a round in the 70s on Sunday. 

Woods won the 2007 edition by two after a 73 in round four, after he'd led by four through three rounds, and he won the 2013 edition by two with a 71 on Sunday, having again led by four. 

Rory McIlroy lost a three-stroke 54-hole lead in the final edition in 2017 so it's a tough place to convert a lead with a round to go but six strokes is a considerable advantage...

If we disregard Jon Rahm's withdrawal at the Memorial Tournament in 2021, when he tested positive for Covid when six clear through 54 holes at Muirfield, only five of 29 men have failed to convert a six-stroke 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour over the last 30 years.

Greg Norman famously lost the US Masters 30 years ago having led by six, Sergio Garcia failed to convert at what's now called the Truist Championship in 2005, Spencer Levin at the Phoenix Open in 2012, Dustin Johnson at the WGC HSBC Champions in China in 2017, and most recently, Collin Morikawa at The Sentry three years ago.

Jacon Bridgeman, at the Genesis Invitational in February, was the last man to lead by six with 18 to play and he was trading at 1.241/4 with Rory McIlroy sitting in second. Bridgeman went on to win by just one.

If Young is to struggle, the very obvious candidate to capitalise is his playing partner, Scottie Scheffler, who, along with Si Woo Kim, tee-offs alongside Young at 14:52 in the UK.

The world number one is no bigger than 15/28.50 on the High Street so the 10.09/1 available on the Betfair Exchange is more than fair.

I really don't expect the leader to slip up from here but if he does, Scheffler is far and away the most likely to capitalise.

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17:15 - May 2, 2026

Ewen Ferguson was matched at as short as 4.67/2 to win the Turkish Airlines Open when he hit the front with a birdie at the par four 15^th earlier today.

With just three holes of his third round to play, and having played his first 15 holes in a bogey-free four-under-par, Ferguson looked comfortable, but he hit a poor tee-shot to the edge of the water at the tough par three 16^th and as the rain began to fall in earnest he decided to take a penalty drop rather than try and hit it.

With the conditions worsening by the second, he hit a scruffy chip to just inside eight feet just before the horn sounded for a suspension in play.

Play resumed after a couple of hours and Ferguson missed the bogey putt before bogeying the last two holes too and he's now tied for 15^th but only three off the lead.

Play will start early again tomorrow with the final three-ball teeing off at 9:10 (7:10 in the UK) but with rain in the forecast all day, it's going to be a slog and there's a very slight chance that the event gets reduced to 54-holes.

Here's the latest state of play with Betfair Exchange prices at 17:05.

Mikael Lundberg -7 6.05/1
Daniel Rodrigues -7 7.06/1
Wenyi Ding -6 11.521/2
Guido Migliozzi -6 12.011/1
Gregorio De Leo -6 15.014/1
Ugo Coussaud -6 15.014/1
Kazuma Kobori -6 19.018/1
Rocco Repetto Taylor -6 24.023/1
Matteo Manassero -5 32.031/1
Marcus Armitage -5 34.033/1
JC Richie -5 38.037/1
Ashun Wu -5 44.043/1
Richie Ramsay -5 60.059/1
Yuvraj Snadhu -5 70.069/1
Ewen Ferguson -4 50.049/1
Fabrizio Zanotti -4 180.0179/1
-3 and 50.049/1 bar

My 160.0159/1 Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Guido Migliozzi, is just one off the lead with 18 to play despite missing eight putts in round three from 10 feet and shorter.

He looked to be rounding into form last week in China and he played magnificently today, making five birdies in-a-row around the turn when the putter finally started working.

Trailing by just one, Migliozzi looks very fairly priced at around 12/113.00 but the tournament is absolutely wide open and I've added three more modest bets at big prices about some of the chasers.

Ashun Wu, who put up a decent defence of his China Open title last week, looks too big given he's only two adrift and so too is Scotland's Richie Ramsay, who sits alongside him.

At the age of 40, Wu is in search of his sixth DP World Tour title and Ramsay, who's two years older, is looking for his fifth.

On a day that could get frustrating with persistent rain and possibly multiple stoppages, the patience that only experience can bring may prove vital.

Both men know how to get the job done and both look too big to ignore.

And finally, the pre-event favourite, David Puig, has looked out of sorts all week but he's still only four off the lead and he's capable of something out of the ordinary as others falter.

He too looks a fair price in what is now an extremely open heat.

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09:00 - May 2, 2026

After overnight storms, and with the threat of more adverse weather later today, the third round of the Turkish Airlines Open kicked off early today.

The halfway leaders are still on the front nine and it's currently live on Sky so I'll be back later today to take a look at that event with just 18 to play. 

Over on the PGA Tour, my pre-event pick, Cam Young, is five clear at the halfway stage of the inaugural edition of the Cadillac Championship and he's clearly the man to beat with two rounds to go.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:45.

Cam Young -13 1.625/8
Jordan Spieth -8 18.535/2
Alex Smalley -8 27.026/1
Nick Taylor -8 46.045/1
Gary Woodland -7 38.037/1
Scottie Scheffler -6 7.413/2
Si Woo Kim -6 40.039/1
Kristoffer Reitan -6 85.084/1
Taylor Pendrith -6 85.084/1
Alex Fitzpatrick -6 110.0109/1
Brian Harman -6 140.0139/1
-5 and 110.0109/1 bar

There are reasons to think that the leader is fractionally short at around 1.68/13 on the Betfair Exchange and having backed him at 14/115.00 before the off, I've layed my stakes back for a stress-free weekend.

Over the last 30 years on the PGA Tour, five-stroke 36-hole leaders have a healthy 62.5% strike rate but five of the last six to lead by five at halfway have been beaten and the only one of the six to win was Akshay Bhatia at the 2024 Texas Open and that event went to a playoff.

In the last 30 years, 17 men have held a clear halfway lead at this week's venue, Doral, and only seven of them went on to win.

That's a strike rate of only 41% but it's well worth highlighting that only one of the 17 was leading by more than two strokes. Franklin Langham finished second having led by three in 2000, but everyone else led by one or two strokes.

If Young goes low again today, he could hold an unassailable lead with 18 to play but as highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, 54-hole leaders don't have a great record.

Scottie Scheffler, who trails by six, is Young's biggest danger but the one that strikes me as a value play at halfway is the man that will partner the leader in today's final two-ball - Nick Taylor.

In search of his sixth PGA Tour title, the Canadian knows how to win and he's a very fair price on the Betfair Exchange at 46.045/1.

The 38-year-old, who has won a PGA Tour event in each of the last three years, is no bigger than 35/136.00 on the High Street.

He's had some issues with his back this week but as the old saying goes, beware the injured golfer!

You don't see this every day

Nick Taylor getting an on-course physio session after suffering from back issues @Cadillac_Champ. pic.twitter.com/mrELqR0LmD

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 1, 2026

His back is obvioulsy a worry but he's simply too big to win his fourth PGA Tour event in four years and I was happy to chance him.

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