The Punter's In-Play Blog: Odds-on Fitzpatrick up by three at Harbour Town

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10:00 - April 19, 2026

After a slow start (bogeys at one and three), the 36-hole leader, Matthew Fitzpatrick, rallied nicely in the third round of the RBC Heritage and he stretched his lead to three when he holed a putt for a birdie two from off the green at 14, before chipping in for eagle at the par five 15^th.

Stretching the lead to 3!

Matt Fitzpatrick holes out from off the green for the second straight hole at the 15th to extend his lead @RBC_Heritage.

CBS pic.twitter.com/hBWIAfCReK

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 18, 2026

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:50.

Matthew Fitzpatrick -17 1.910/11
Scottie Scheffler -14 3.814/5
Si Woo Kim -13 20.019/1
Sepp Straka -13 23.022/1
Brian Harman -13 30.029/1
Ludvig Aberg -12 40.039/1
Patrick Cantlay -12 44.043/1
Gary Woodland -12 120.0119/1
Andrew Novak -12 120.0119/1
Aldrich Potgieter -12 180.0179/1
-11 and 170.0169/1 bar

Over the last 10 years, 44 men have led a PGA Tour event by three strokes through 54 holes and 23 of them went on to win. That's a strike rate of 52%, suggesting Fitzpatrick is fractionally short at 1.910/11.

Add in the fact that his nearest challenger is the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, who appears to be getting back to his best, and he definitely looks a bit short, although it's impossible to pick holes in his record when leading...

Fitzpatrick won the US Open, having been tied for the lead with a round to go in 2022, and he beat Jordan Spieth in a playoff in this event in 2023, following a 68 on Sunday after he'd led by a stroke at this stage.

He finished second in the Arnold Palmer back in 2019, having led by a stroke, and he also finished second in the BMW Championship in 2023, having been tied for the lead with 18 to play, but he can't be described as flaky in contention.

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Will we witness another off the pace winner?

Looking at this event in isolation, recent history suggests you need to be up with the pace with 18 holes to play.

Last year's winner, Justin Thomas, sat tied for second and just one off the lead after 54 holes and four of the five winners before him were leading or tied for the lead with a round to go but historically, off the pace winners have been fairly common at Hilton Head.

Trading at 22.021/1 and trailing by three strokes in a tie for ninth, Jordan Spieth shot 66 in round four in 2022 before beating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff and prior to Webb Simpson's victory in 2020, we hadn't seen a 54-hole leader convert since 2012.

And like Spieth four years ago, the winner had come from outside the final pairing every time.

CT Pan, in 2019, was the seventh winner in-a-row to come from at least two strokes adrift and although he was quite close to the lead compared to some winners, he was still unfancied, trading at 36.035/1 prior to the start of round four.

Since Carl Pettersson converted from the front in 2012, and prior to Webb's win in 2020, the winners had trailed by four, four, four, three, four, six and two strokes so the recent run of results is somewhat surprising.

In addition to the seven results before 2020, Brandt Snedeker beat Luke Donald in a playoff in 2011, having trailed by six after 54 holes, but Stewart Cink easily trumps them all.

Back in 2004, when wining the second of his three titles, he shot 64 on Sunday to come from an incredible nine shots back to win!

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Two chanced at big prices from five back

It's obviously highly likely that one of the front two get the job done but given the history here, I'm happy to chance a couple of players with work to do - Ludvig Aberg and Patrick Cantlay.

Aberg was the last man to lead by three with a round to go on the PGA Tour when he led the Players Championship through three rounds last month.

He slumped to fifth place with a sorry 76 at Sawgrass but he won't be under anywhere near that pressure here and he won the RSM Classic around the corner from Harbour Town to get off the mark on the PGA Tour in 2023 when he shot back-to-back 61s over the weekend.

Trailing by five, he'll need a super low round to win but he's more than capable of doing so.

Patrick Canlay is alongside Aberg, and he too is capable of a super low round.

The Harbour Town specialist has twice been beaten in a playoff having trailed by five with 18 to play and he finished second in The American Express in 2021 after shooting a 61 on Sunday from off the pace.

Cantlay shot 60 when still an amateur at the Travellers Championship in 2011, at another Pete Dye designed course, TPC River Highlands, and with course form figures here reading 3-7-3-MC-2-3-3-13, he clearly loves this layout.

He hasn't won on the PGA Tour since 2021 so he's overdue another victory and being just off the pace at his favourite track, he's got a better chance of achieving the feat than his odds suggest.

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08:00 - April 18, 2026

We've reached the midway point of the RBC Heritage and Matthew Fitzpatrick leads by a stroke over Viktor Hovland. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:50.

Matthew Fitzpatrick -14 2.3811/8
Viktor Hovland -13 4.94/1
Harris English -10 26.025/1
Ludvig Aberg -9 18.535/2
Patrick Cantlay -9 22.021/1
Sepp Straka -9 34.033/1
Robert MacIntyre -8 46.045/1
Si Woo Kim -8 46.045/1
Rickie Fowler -8 85.084/1
Kurt Kitayama -8 90.089/1
Keegan Bradley -8 130.0129/1
Michael Brennan -8 140.0139/1
Aldrich Potgieter -8 260.0259/1
Scottie Scheffler -7 14.013/1
Collin Morikawa -7 65.064/1
-7 and 100.099/1 bar

It's difficult to know how much credence we can give the in-running stats at Harbour Town now that the RBC Heritage is a Signature Event but historically, it's been a tough place to make the running.

Last year's winner, Justin Thomas, was up by two at this stage and he was trading at 3.7511/4 and Stewart Cink was five clear at halfway when he won five years ago.

Webb Simpson had led by a stroke when he took the title a year before Cink but 12 of the last 15 winners were trailing by at least two strokes at halfway.

Scheffler sat tied for 10^th and three off the lead two years ago, the 2023 champ, and this year's halfway leader, Fitzpatrick, had been tied for 18^th and six off the lead. And Jordan Spieth had sat tied for eighth and four back when he won in 2022.

Those results are fairly typical here and year after year we see winners at Hilton Head come from off the pace after rounds two and three.

Looking back over the last 30 years, 12 men have taken a one-stroke lead into the weekend and only two (Simpson in 2020 and Nick Price in 1997) went on to win.

That stat makes the leader look short at less than 6/42.50 and when we add in the fact that he's held a clear lead in a 72-hole stroke play event six times without winning since he converted a three-stroke lead in the Nordea Masters 10 years ago, and he starts to look worth taking on.

Viktor Hovland, who Dave Tindall made a great case for at 30/131.00 before the off in his each-way column, is Fitzpatrick's closest challenger and he looks a fair price at almost 4/15.00.

He's three clear of the man in third, Harris English, so the front two have opened up a bit of daylight, but we've seen winners come from multiple shots back at this stage on many occasions at this venue.

It's not uncommon to see the winner come from four and five strokes back after 36 holes and when Fitzpatrick won from six adrift at halfway three years ago, he was the sixth winner in 24 years to be that far back at this stage.

My pre-event pick, Sepp Straka, who trails by five in a tie for fourth, is certainly close enough and I haven't yet given up on my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Sami Valimaki, who sits alongside the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, in the group of players tied for 14^th and seven off the lead.

Jeff Sluman lost a playoff in 1999 having trailed by seven and Stewart Cink won the title in 2004 having been seven adrift at halfway.

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