RBC Heritage: Sepp Straka the sole selection at 69/1

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RBC Heritage Tournament History 

The late great Arnold Palmer won the inaugural staging of the RBC Heritage back in 1969 so this will be the 58^th edition of the tournament.  

As usual, the RBC Heritage is the first event after the US Masters in neighbouring Geogia so it's a strong line-up. 

The RBC Heritage is the fourth Signature Event of 2026 so it's a limited field event with no cut. 

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Venue 

Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, South Carolina 

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Course Details

Par 71, 7,213 yards.
Stroke Index in 2025 - 69.37 

Assisted by Jack Nicklaus, Hilton Head was designed by the late great Pete Dye, who also designed Sawgrass, home of the Players Championship, and it's always been the event's venue, so there's plenty of course form to go on.   

The fairways aren't overly narrow and the rough has only measured 1 ¼ high over the last two years, but you do need to find the right spots on the fairways to attack the tiny Bermuda greens that usually run at around 12 ½ on the Stimpmeter.   

It's one of the players favourite stop-offs on the PGA Tour and it's very easy on the eye. 

The course underwent a six-month long renovation by Davis Love III's Love Golf Design after last year's edition, but the facelift has been subtle.

Old photographs helped guide the minor changes that were made on every hole. Some were as simple as a rerouting the cart path on the first, restored bunkers on the 12th and a slightly expanded green on the par three 17th.

Davis Love had this to say about the work.

"We've loved Harbour Town in every era, so which era was the best? Kind of our trick we ended up deciding is we need a 'best of Pete Dye' at Harbour Town."

The most noticeable change is probably on the par five fifth, where a large live oak was moved 18 feet to the left so its overhanging limbs could once again protect the right third of the green.

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Weather Forecast 

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TV Coverage 

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:00 UK time on Thursday 

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices 

2025 - Justin Thomas -17 27.026/1 (playoff)
2024 - Scottie Scheffler -19 6.86/1 
2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick -17 38.037/1 (playoff) 
2022 - Jordan Spieth -13 50.049/1 (playoff) 
2021 - Stewart Cink -19 120.0119/1 
2020 - Webb Simpson 32.031/1 
2019 - C.T Pan -12 460.0459/1 
2018 - Satoshi Kodaira -12 500.0499/1 (playoff) 
2017 - Wesley Bryan -13 200.0199/1 
2016 - Branden Grace -9 44.043/1

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What Will it Take to Win the RBC Heritage? 

Historically, accuracy off the tee has been of more importance than distance but neither metric appears important now.  

The 2024 winner, Scottie Scheffler, ranked third for Driving Accuracy and when the 2018 winner, Satoshi Kodaira, ranked fourth for DA, he was the seventh winner in ten years to rank inside the top ten for that stat but it's not a crucial stat anymore.

The five winners in between Kodaira and Scheffler only ranked 31^st, 57^th, 33^rd, 55^th and 59^th for DA, the two winners before Kodaira ranked only 55^th and 57^th, and last year's winner, Justin Thomas, ranked only 59^th for Driving Accuracy.

Scheffler ranked as high as tied second for Greens In Regulation two years ago and Thomas ranked eighth last year, but as is the case with DA, that stat doesn't appear as important as it once was.  

Strong putting used to be the key to victory here, with six of the seven winners between 2006 and 2012 having a Putting Average ranking of sixth or better but it's been a mixed bag lately.

Thomas ranked 11^th for PA last year, Matt Fitzpatrick ranked second three years ago and Stewart Cink had a ranking of seventh in 2021.

The 2019 and 2020 winners ranked third and second but Scheffler only ranked 35^th for PA and 34^th for Strokes Gained: Putting in 2024 and Jordan Spieth putted deplorably when he won in 2022! 

When asked what he was most proud of in terms of his performance his answer was unequivocable. 

"Well, I won this golf tournament without a putter!" 

And he wasn't wrong. Spieth's putting stats really were incredible. He ended the week ranking 60th for Strokes Gained Putting with a -2.55 strokes gained figure, which was the worst SG putting number by a PGA Tour winner since Sean O'Hair in 2009 at Quail Hollow (-3.29), and he ranked 37th for Putts Per round and 40th for Putting Average but he did rank highly for the two most essential stats - Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Scrambling.

Spieth ranked first for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and sixth for Scrambling in 2022, Scheffler ranked first for those two metrics in 2024, and they're the two key stats to consider. 

Thomas only ranked 11^th for SG: T2G and eighth for Scrambling last year but the next four on the leaderboard ranked inside the top five for SG: T2G and the top four for Scrambling.

The last nine winners have ranked 11^th, first, sixth, seventh, 11^th, seventh, first, third and first for SG: T2G and although the 2019 and 2020 winners only ranked 27^th and 16^th for Scrambling, I'd still consider that the most important traditional stat to ponder.  

These greens are considerably smaller than average, and everyone is going to miss plenty of them so getting up-and-down to save par is crucial.   

Fitzpatrick ranked fourth for Scrambling in 2023, the front three in 2021 ranked fourth, second and third and in 15 of the last 17 years, whoever has topped the Scrambling stats for the week has finished inside the top 11.   

The best four scramblers finished inside the top five last year and in 2016, eight of the top ten scramblers finished tied ninth or better.  

Being a seaside links, Harbour Town is exposed and wind-affected, so great wind exponents do well here year after year. 

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Is There an Angle In? 

It's a bit more open than this track, but form at the Seaside Course, Sea Island, home of the RSM Classic in November, is well worth considering. It's only around the corner so it makes sense that it should correlate nicely, and it does.  

The first three RSM Classic winners all had a top-six finish here on their CVs and although there have only been 16 editions of that event, there are plenty of examples of players playing well at both tournaments.   

It's a very similar exposed, wind-affected, seaside course so it's no surprise that form there stands up well here.  

Other courses to consider are Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony Open in Hawaii, TPC Southwind, which hosts the FedEx St Jude in August, the Grand Reserve Country Club, home of the Puerto Rico Open, and Colonial Country Club, which hosts the Charles Schwab Challenge all correlate nicely, but arguably the best new correlating course is the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, home of the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship.  

Although a terrible final round saw him finish tied for 48^th, the 2022 Corales winner, Joel Dahman, was sitting just one off the lead with a round to go here in 2020, the 2023 Corales winner, Matt Wallace, finished 18^th here in 2021, having sat fourth through 54 holes, the 2024 winner, Billy Horschel, has finished fifth and ninth here, and the 2018 edition of the Corales was won by the 2013 Heritage winner, Graeme McDowell.  

And finally, although not a coastal course, and designed by Donald Ross and not Pete Dye, Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, also correlates superbly. 

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Is There an Identikit Winner? 

As the old adage goes, there are lies, damn lies and statistics and looking at recent history, three of the last five winners of this event have finished inside the top 12 at Augusta, suggesting a good week in the year's opening major is a plus but despite recent history, the stats this century suggest it isn't. 

The remarkable Scottie Scheffler won here after winning the US Masters two years ago, but he was the first to double up since Bernhard Langer way back in 1985. 

Matt Fitzpatrick won here in 2023 having finished tied for 10^th at Augusta the week before and the 2021 winner, Stewart Cink, had finished 12^th in the US Masters but those three appear to be the exceptions rather than the rule and most winners haven't contended in the year's first major.  

The US Masters was shifted to November in 2020 and this event was staged in June but prior to 2020, apart from 2011 and '12, this event has traditionally followed the year's first major since 1983, so I've looked at how the winners here had fared at Augusta on every occasion that this event has followed the US Masters this century below.  

2025 - Justin Thomas - 36th
2024 - Scottie Scheffler - Won 
2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick - 10^th 
2022 - Jordan Spieth MC at Augusta
2021 - Stewart Cink - 12^th
2019 - C.T Pan - Didn't play at the Masters
2018 - Satoshi Kodaira - 28th at Augusta
2017 - Wesley Bryan - Didn't play at the Masters
2016 - Branden Grace - MC at Augusta
2015 - Jim Furyk - MC at Augusta
2014 - Matt Kuchar - 5th at Augusta 
2013 - Graeme McDowell - MC at Augusta 
2010 - Jim Furyk - MC at Augusta 
2009 - Brian Gay - Didn't play at the Masters 
2008 - Boo Weekley - 20th at Augusta 
2007 - Boo Weekley - Didn't play at the Masters 
2006 - Aaron Baddeley - Didn't play at the Masters 
2005 - Peter Lonard - MC at Augusta 
2004 - Stewart Cink - 17th at Augusta 
2003 - Davis Love - 15th at Augusta 
2002 - Justin Leonard - 20th at Augusta 
2001 - Jose Coceres - MC at Augusta 
2000 - Stewart Cink - 28th at Augusta  

In addition to Scheffler, Fitzpatrick and Cink, Matt Kuchar's fifth at Augusta 12 years ago is the result that stands out but every other winner here has either not played at Augusta, missed the cut at Augusta, or finished no better than 15^th. And it's perhaps worth highlighting that all those that have performed well here after a top 20 finish in the US Masters had very strong and usually winning form here anyway.  

A high finish last week could be construed as a bit of a negative and it was his weekend off at Augusta that inspired the 2022 winner, Spieth.  

"Last week was really a killer for me. My favourite tournament in the world (the US Masters), not getting to play on the weekend, so I tried to come in and work a little extra hard this week, and game felt in a good place, just needed to give myself a chance and it felt really good to make a putt that mattered on 18 in regulation."  

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Course form counts at Harbour Town 

Although we've witnessed a few younger winners of late, prior to 2016, 12 of the previous 14 winners were in their 30s and Jim Furyk was 44 when he won here in 2015. Cink was 47 when successful in 2021 so experience often counts for plenty at Harbour Town.  

Harbour Town is a tricky track that doesn't suit everyone, and course form stands up well. In its 56-year history, ten men have won the event more than once and Davis Love III has won it five times.  

Fitzpatrick had finished fourth two years before he won two years ago and Thomas had course form figures reading 11-75-8-35-25-5 before he won 12 months ago but we've also seen a few first-time shock winners of late too.  

Cink was a big price five years ago and C.T Pan was the third consecutive big outsider to take the title in 2019. Pan was also the fourth winner in-a-row winning for the first time on the PGA Tour.  

It's hard to gauge now that it's a Signature Event but historically, it's been a fair event for longshots. 

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four 

2025 - Justin Thomas - T2 - trailing by one 4.03/1
2024 - Scottie Scheffler - led by one 1.834/5 
2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick - led by one 3.613/5 
2022 - Jordan Spieth - T9 - trailing by three 22.021/1 
2021 - Stewart Cink - led by five 1.51/2 
2020 - Webb Simpson - tied for the lead with three others 5.85/1 
2019 - C.T Pan - T5 - trailing by two 36.035/1 
2018 - Satoshi Kodaira - T12 - trailing by six 440.0439/1 
2017 - Wesley Bryan - T6 - trailing by four 30.029/1 
2016 - Branden Grace - T5 - trailing by three 15.014/1 

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In-Play Tactics 

Thomas trailed by just a stroke last year and the two winners before him were in front with a round to go, Cink won from the front in 2021, and Webb Simpson was tied at the top in 2020, so four of the last six winners have been leading or tied for the lead but this isn't an easy track to make the running.  

The third-round leader in 2019, Dustin Johnson, having traded as short as 1.564/7 during round three, eventually finished tied for 28^th and as you can see by the data above, this is a venue where many a winner comes from way off the pace.  

Until 2020, we hadn't seen a 54-hole leader convert since 2012 and the winner had come from outside the final pairing every time since.  

Pan was the seventh winner in-a-row to come from at least a couple of strokes adrift in 2019 and although he was quite close to the lead compared to some winners, he was still unfancied and a 36.035/1 shot after three rounds. 

Since Carl Pettersson converted from the front in 2012, and Prior to Webb's win in 2020, the winners had trailed by four, four, four, three, four, six and two strokes, and Spieth was three adrift with traffic in front of him three years ago.  

In addition to those seven results between 2013 and 2019, Brandt Snedeker beat Luke Donald in a playoff in 2011, having trailed by six after 54 holes, but Cink easily trumps them all.  

Back in 2004, when winning the second of his three titles, he came from an incredible nine shots back to win, so if your picks start slowly, don't give up on them and taking on the leaders with a round to go has been a profitable exercise in many a year. 

The par five 15^th is the last hole in the woods at Harbour Town and it's a tricky finish after that. The par four 16^th is a tough hole if the fairway is missed, and the exposed par three 17^th trips up many a contender. The fairway is ridiculously generous on 18 but it's a tough second shot, even from the fairway so great rounds can untangle at the end quite easily.  

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Straka the sole selection

A 76 on Sunday saw Sepp Straka slip outside the top 40 at the US Masters so he has the underwhelming week at Augusta that's so often a positive here and he also has plenty of course form to his name too.

He finished only 33^rd and 59^th on his first two visits and he missed the cut in 2023, 12 months after he'd finished third behind Jordan Spieth, but he was tied for the lead at halfway two years ago before he finished fifth behind this week's favourite, Scottie Scheffler, who finished runner-up to Rory at Augusta, and a pair of  67s over the weekend last year saw him climb from 46^th to 13^th.

Straka has won the Cognizant Classic around the exposed PGA National layout, he has form at TPC Southwind, Waialae, Colonial Country Club and Pebble Beach so it's not at all surprising that this layout suits his eye and he's a very fair price at 70.069/1 given he's no bigger than 50/151.00 on the High Street. 

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