The Punter's In-Play Blog: Two tied at the top at Twin Cities

• Olesen ace helps Dane maintain his lead

• Tight at the top with 18 to play

• In-form Gotterup in-contention again

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08:00 - July 27, 2025

Dave Tindall's 33/134.00 each-way fancy, Kurt Kitayama, was trading at 350.0349/1 to win the 3M Open this time yesterday but an 11-under-par 60 around TPC Twin Cities has propelled the 32-year-old Californian up the leaderboard and from tied 44^th and six off the lead at halfway, he's now tied third and just one back with 18 holes to play.

The halfway leader, Thorbjorn Olesen, who made a hole-in-one at the eighth, shot 67 to remain in front but he's been caught by pre-event 38.037/1 chance, Akshay Bhatia, who birdied three of his last four holes.

IT'S AN ACE

Thorbjørn Olesen makes a hole-in-one on No. 8 @3MOpen. pic.twitter.com/UFen6zCcrT

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 26, 2025

Both of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks in-the-mix at halfway have fallen out of contention but pre-event pick, Jake Knapp, recovered nicely after a slow start and he's just one off the lead. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 7:50.

Akshay Bhatia -18 5.04/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -18 7.26/1
Jake Knapp -17 7.413/2
Kurt Kitayama -17 8.415/2
Sam Stevens -17 11.010/1
Takumi Kanaya -17 16.015/1
Chris Gotterup -16 12.011/1
Alex Noren -16 20.019/1
Pierceson Coody -16 22.021/1
Jesper Svensson -15 44.043/1
William Mouw -15 60.059/1
Wyndham Clark -14 50.049/1
-14 and 150.0149/1 bar

Kitayama demonstrated yesterday that it's possible to come from off the pace here and last year's runner-up, Max Greyserman, had sat eight off the lead with a round to go before trading at as low as 2.727/4 on Sunday, having been a 1000.0999/1 chance through 54 holes, so we can't rule out a winner from some way back but the previous six event winners have all been in the van with 18 to play.

The first two winners, Matthew Wolff and Michael Thompson, were both tied for the lead through 54 holes, the last two winners, Lee Hodges and Jhonattan Vegas, both held clear advantages with 18 to play and the 2021 winner, Cameron Champ, trailed by just two strokes in a tie for fourth.

The 2022 winner, Tony Finau, was five off the lead at this stage but there were only two men ahead of him and the four-stroke 54-hole leader, Scott Piercy, shot 76 on Sunday to make Finau's task considerably easier than it might have been. Finau shot 67 on Sunday to win by three.

With all that in mind, we probably need to be concentrating on the top six, who are separated by a single stroke, but the fact that it's still 4/15.00 the field demonstrates just how tricky a tournament this is to predict.

I'm happy to stick with Knapp, who hit as high as 30.029/1 after a run of 11 straight pars to start round three yesterday, and I've topped up on Wyndham Clark, who hit a low of 8.07/1 yesterday.

Clark birdied his first three holes yesterday but for the second time in three days he recorded a double-bogey six at the ninth and doubles feel like quads when the scoring is as low as it is this week.

The bang-in-form, Chris Gotterup, looks dangerous from two adrift and I was tempted to play him at 12.011/1 but I'm going to leave the event alone now and cheer on Knapp and Clark.

Bhatia is the man to beat according to the market, and he was an impressive winner of the Barracuda Championship in 2023 and the Texas Open last year but he was a little disappointing on the last occasion he was tied for the lead with 18 to play, finishing tied for second at the Rocket Classic a year ago after a 72 on Sunday.

Like Kitayama, Bhatia needs to back up a low round yesterday and that's never easy to do.

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11:20 - July 26, 2025

Pre-event 120.0119/1 chance, Thorbjorn Olesen, leads the 3M Open at the halfway stage but with 17 players within four strokes of the Dane, we've got a wide-open market to assess. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 11:10.

Thorbjorn Olesen -14 6.86/1
Jake Knapp -13 5.49/2
Sam Stevens -12 13.525/2
Pierceson Coody -12 17.016/1
Matti Schmid -11 23.022/1
Chris Kirk -11 27.026/1
Takumi Kanaya -11 34.033/1
Chris Gotterup -10 17.016/1
Wyndham Clark -10 18.017/1
Akshay Bhatia -10 23.022/1
Luke Clanton -10 32.031/1
Emiliano Grillo -10 32.031/1
Matt Wallace -10 36.035/1
Alex Noren -10 46.045/1
William Mouw -10 60.059/1
Joel Dahmen -10 80.079/1
Chad Ramey -10 80.079/1
-9 and 55.054/1 bar

There'll be no hard luck stories regarding the draw this week with a bias between the two halves of just 0.11 of a stroke over the first two days.

After two benign days, a slightly breezier one is predicted today but TPC Twin Cities is an easy enough layout, and the birdies will continue to drop.

Aggressive golf is going to be rewarded and ordinarily, it's very hard to make up ground when the scoring is this easy.

On a bunched leaderboard like this, it's highly likely that one of those listed above will shoot two low enough rounds over the weekend to take the title but the brief history of the event suggests that may not be the case.

The 2023 winner, Lee Hodges, was already four clear by this stage and he went on to win by seven, and the 2020 winner, Michael Thompson, was tied at the top at halfway, but the other four winners all made up ground over the weekend.

Although inside the top five places, last year's winner, Jhonnatan Vegas, trailed by four at this stage and the 2022 winner, Tony Finau, was five back.

The 2021 winner, Cameron Champ, trailed by four in a tie for 19^th and the inaugural winner, Matthew Wolf, sat tied for 35^th and eight strokes off the lead!

Wolff shot 62-65 on the weekend to win by a stroke.

Adam Svensson, who now sits tied for 32^nd after a sorry 75 yesterday, shot a course record 60 on day one, and Alex Noren moved up 86 places with his 62 on day two so low scores are out there, and we're bound to see one or two make giant strides today, but I'm adding a player that sits just four off the lead.

Jake Knapp (@KnappTime_LTD) leads the @3MOpen in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+3.909).

With rounds of 64-65, he's bogey-free through 36 holes for the first time on TOUR.

And he's one back of leader @ThorbjornOlesen through Friday's morning wave in Minnesota. pic.twitter.com/OfIYGosoBX

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 25, 2025

With pre-event pick, Jake Knapp, sitting second, and at the head of the market, and two of Find Me a 100 Winner selections, Chris Kirk (tied fifth) and Luke Clanton (tied eighth), both in the mix, I'm quite happy with the state of play at halfway but this is so competitive I could add another half a dozen and still not snare the winner.

It's a really tough tournament to work out but I would kick myself if I didn't back Wyndham Clark at 18.017/1.

The 2023 US Open winner finished tied fourth at the Open last week, despite sitting tied for 129^th after round one, and he's creeping into this week's event nicely too after rounds of 67 and 65 over the first two days.

No bigger than 14/115.00 on the High Street, Clark looks a fair price at 18.017/1 at halfway.

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10:25 - July 25, 2025

After a course record 11-under-par 60 around TPC Twin Cities, pre-event 660.0659/1 pick, Adam Svensson, leads the 3M Open by two strokes but he makes little appeal at 14/115.00.

Svensson has led a PGA Tour event after round one three times previously, and his record is poor.

He finished 43^rd at the Sony Open in 2019, having led by a stroke after a 61 on day, sixth at the Barbasol Championship in 2022, having led by two after an opening 62, and he also led the inaugural edition of the Black Desert Championship by a couple of strokes in October last year, having fired 60 in round one. On that occasion he finished tied for 25^th!

Less than two weeks after winning the Scottish Open and just four days after finishing third to Scottie Scheffler in the Open Championship, Chris Gotterup has kept his red-hot streak going with an eight-under-par 63 to sit tied for fourth and he's the 13/27.50 favourite on the Exchange with three rounds to play.

Given how incredibly well he's been playing over the last fortnight, that's a tempting price but I'm happy to sit on my hands for now and see what today brings.

A couple of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks, Chris Kirk, who shot -7, and Luke Clanton (-5), have started nicely enough and my only selection at a double-figure price, Jake Knapp, is now trading at 14/115.00 after a seven-under-par 64 sees him sitting tied for seventh.

152 yards and IN!@KnappTime_LTD drops it in for eagle on the 456-yard par 4 @3MOpen.

Golf Channel pic.twitter.com/x67rXMuJE5

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 24, 2025

In six previous editions, we've seen three winners sit inside the top three and within two strokes of the lead after round one, but we've also seen three winners trail by at least five strokes after the opening round.

Last year's winner, Jhonattan Vegas, sat tied for 24^th and five back, the 2021 winner, Cameron Champ was tied for 38^th and five adrift and the inaugural winner, Matthew Wolff, was seven off the lead after day one and tied for 49^th.

With another benign day on the cards today, the scoring is going to be super low again so making up ground is going to be tough for those that started slowly yesterday, and it doesn't look like there'll be any sort of draw bias either.

There was a differential of just 0.1 of a stroke between the AM and PM wave yesterday and I suspect we'll see a similarly balanced split again today. 

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3M Open Pre-Event Pick:
Jake Knapp @ 40/141.00 

Find Me a 100 picks:
Luke Clanton @ 110.0109/1
Jhonattan Vegas @ 110.0109/1
Chris Kirk @ 150.0149/1
Nick Dunlap @ 400.0399/1

In-Play Pick:
Wyndham Clark @ 18.017/1 and 60.059/1

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