The Punter's In-Play Blog: Novak cruises to a five-stroke win

08:40 - November 2 - Novak victory never in doubt, despite a slow start on Sunday

Pre-event 44.043/1 chance, Andrew Novak, was matched at as high as 140.0139/1 during the first round of the Mexico Open.

Stuck on level par after 10 holes on Thursday morning, the 31-year-old looked set for an ordinary week, but he rallied on the back nine to end the day on -4.

With Karl Villips setting the early pace with an opening nine-under-par 62, Novak was sitting outside the top 20 and he was trading at 55.054/1 in-between rounds, but he got his skates on - on Friday afternoon, posting a course-record equalling 61 to lead by three.

He backed that up superbly with a nine-under-par 62 on Saturday and leading by six with 18 to play, Novak never really looked in trouble on Sunday, despite a fairly slow start (level par for the day after 11 holes).

Having been a solid 1.121/8 chance before the final round, Novak hit a high of 1.330/100 on Sunday as Doug Ghim, who hit a low of 5.04/1, started the final round nicely.

Ghim, who had been a well-supported 25/126.00 chance before the off, birdied three of the first five holes on Sunday and he turned for home in four-under for the day but that was as good as it got.

Ghim and Novak both bogeyed the 10^th but Novak kicked away with three birdies in-a-row from the 12^th as Ghim dropped away tamely to finish tied for sixth after a double-bogey at the 72^nd hole.

Novak eventually claimed his first PGA Tour title by five strokes, with a tournament record total of -25, to move up from number 90 to number 58 in the Official World rankings and from 89^th to 53^rd in the FedEx Cup standings.

11:30 - November 1 - Novak shoots clear with a second successive super low score

It's notoriously hard to back up a really low round, although there's a very valid argument to be made that it's obviously going to be hard to back up a great knock with anything close to it the following day.

Super low scores are just so rare, but Andrew Novak demonstrated yesterday at the Mexico Open that backing up something special with another great score is certainly possible.

After posting a course record-equalling 10-under-par 61 on Friday, Novak fired a nine-under-par 62 around Vidanta Vallarta to double his advantage at the top of the leaderboard from three to six.

Novak won the Zurich pairs event alongside Ben Griffin last year but he's yet to win an individual event on the PGA Tour. It's hard to see him giving himself a better chance than this to do so and he's a very short favourite with just 18 holes to play. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back on the Betfair Exchange at 11:15.

Andrew Novak -23 1.132/15
Matthieu Pavon -17 38.037/1
Doug Ghim -16 26.025/1
Ben Griffin -15 65.064/1
Max Greyserman -15 100.099/1
Pierceson Coody -15 130.0129/1
-14 and 370.0369/1 bar

If we disregard Jon Rahm's withdrawal at the Memorial Tournament in 2021, when he tested positive for Covid when six clear through 54 holes at Muirfield, only five of 31 men have failed to convert a six-stroke 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour over the last 30 years.

Greg Norman famously lost the US Masters 30 years ago having led by six, Sergio Garcia failed to convert at what's now called the Truist Championship in 2005, Spencer Levin at the Phoenix Open in 2012, Dustin Johnson at the WGC HSBC Champions in China in 2017, and most recently, Collin Morikawa at The Sentry three years ago.

We've already seen four men convert a six-stroke lead on the PGA Tour and the prices on the four with 18 to play varied greatly.

Wyndham Clark held on to win the US Open in June by a stroke, having been trading at a very generous 1.434/9 with a round to go, Cameron Young was trading at 1.211/5 before going on to win the Cadilac Championship in May, Jacon Bridgeman, at the Genesis Invitational in February, was trading at 1.241/4, and Justin Rose was as short as 1.061/18 when he led the Farmers Insurance Open by six in February.

Rose went on to win by seven, and Young won by six but like Clark, Bridgeman's margin of victory was just a solitary stroke in the end.

The fact that the course is so straightforward is a big advantage to the leader, but I can't help but think he's fractionally short.

His closest challenger, Matthieu Pavon, isn't a prolific winner but he has won on the PGA Tour before, and he has a surprisingly good record on a Sunday.

Only Scottie Scheffler and Jake Knapp have a better final round scoring average than the Frenchman this year on the PGA Tour, who has averaged 67.9 on a Sunday.

With a good friend on the bag this week, Pavon is happy and relaxed, and he could be a bigger danger to the leader than the market suggests he is.

Alone in third, Doug Ghim, who came into the event with current form figures reading 15-19-17-2-17, is also likely to go low today.

Like the leader, Ghim is yet to win an individual event on the PGA Tour, but being so far off the lead should help him today and although he trails by seven, he's playing so well that he looks highly likely to post another low round today.

Away from the win market, Tom Kim is an interesting runner in the place markets.

Sitting in a tie for ninth, the classy Korean is a fair price to finish the week inside the top 10 at around 4/51.80 on the Betfair Exchange and he's a tempting price at 7/24.50 with the Sportsbook to finish the week in the top five but I'm just going to keep things very simple and lay the leader modestly at long odds-on.

He's been putting the lights out all week (ranks first by a distance for Strokes Gained: Putting) and if he keeps that up there's zero chance of him getting caught but I was happy to take him on for small stakes at 1.132/15

09:30 - October 31 - Novak unlikely to back up Friday's low round

We've reached the halfway stage of the Mexico Open and after a course record-equalling 10-under-par 61, Andrw Novak leads by three. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back on the Betfair Exchange at 09:15.

Andrew Novak -14 3.3512/5
Ben Griffin -11 8.88/1
Kihei Akina -11 22.021/1
Adrien Dumont De Chassart -11 25.024/1
Matthieu Pavon -11 26.025/1
Kensei Hirata -11 55.054/1
Marco Penge -10 19.018/1
Gordon Sargent -10 30.029/1
Mackenzie Hughes -10 34.033/1
Max Greyserman -10 36.035/1
Doug Ghim -9 24.023/1
Blades Brown -9 27.026/1
Jackson Suber -9 34.033/1
Luke Clanton -9 46.045/1
Steven Fisk -9 50.049/1
-9 and 75.074/1 bar

This is the fifth edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta Villarta so it's worth looking back at how the previous four renewals have panned out and it's immediately obvious that up with the pace is the place to be here.

The first three winners were all in front at this stage and had Aldrich Potgieter, who led by four at halfway, won the playoff last year instead of Brian Campbell, 36-hole leaders would have been four from four.

Jon Rahm led by two in 2022, Tony Finau was one in front in 2023 and the 2024 winner, Jake Knapp, was tied for the lead with the eventual runner-up, Sami Valimaki, so the track clearly suits the frontrunners.

With that in mind, Novak is in a strong position and odds of more than 9/43.25 on the Betfair Exchange appear generous at first glance but he's not for me.

This is the fourth time he's led or been tied for the lead at the halfway stage of an individual event, and he hasn't fared well previously.

A year after winning his only individual title to date, the Suncoast Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020, Novak finished third at the Rex Hospital Open after leading by three at halfway and after 54 holes. He was tied for the lead at the Pinnacle Bank Championship a few months later but finished tied for 58^th and on the only previous occasion that he's led at this stage on the PGA Tour, at the RSM Classic last year, where he led by a stroke, he finished seventh, beaten by five.

Ben Griffin, who defends his World Wide Technology Championship title next week, is an obvious danger and given he's generally a 14/115.00 shot on the High Street, the 18/119.00 available on the Betfair Exchange for Marco Penge is tempting but I'm leaving the win market alone for now.

My long-shot fancy, Gordon Sargent, is tied for seventh, so I'll keep my fingers crossed for a low round from him today but my only play at halfway is to lay the leader in the Top 5 Finish market at 1.51/2.

If Novak stutters today, he'll soon get caught and given there are as many as 19 players sat on -9, -10 and -11, he's far from certain to finish inside the top five if he performs ordinarily over the weekend.

Potgieter shot 67-71 over the weekend after posting a course-record equalling 61 on Friday last year and that was a fair effort given how hard it is to back up a super low round.

I'm not convinced Novak can perform that well after his low round yesterday and I'm happy to take him on.

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