Steve Rawlings' Long Odds Golf Tips: Two to back at huge prices in Mexico

Two picks in Mexico from Steve this week

With the DP World Tour taking a week off ahead of the two playoff events, the Abu Dhabi Championship and the DP World Tour Championship, we've only got the fifth edition of the Mexico Open on the PGA Tour to concentrate on.

The first two editions were won by Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, who both went off at a single-figure price but Jake Knapp won the event at 60.059/1 two years ago and last year's renewal went to a playoff between two outsiders with the 600.0599/1 chance, Brian Campbell, edging out the pre-event 60.059/1 chance, Aldrich Potgieter.

It's not the strongest field ever witnessed but with only four FedEx Fall Series events left, time is running out for those outside the all-important top 100 in the standings, so it's an interesting event to evaluate.

Only those inside the top 100 places after the RSM Classic at the end of November will keep their cards on the PGA Tour next year so there's plenty of incentive for both of my two long-shot fancies this week...

Mexico Open Bet 1 - Back Gordon Sargent @ 90.089/1

The shortest priced of my two picks is the man currently sitting at number 133 in the FedEx Cup standings, Gordon Sargent, who was the first man to qualify for the PGA Tour via its University Accelerated program back in 2023, although he didn't join the Tour until he turned pro in June 2025, after he'd completed his senior season at Vanderbilt University.

The former world number one amateur hasn't exactly set the world alight in the pro ranks, but he does have two top 10s on the PGA Tour at two paspalum venues that correlate nicely with this venue.

The 23-year-old finished eighth in the Puerto Rico Open in March and second at the Corales Puntacana Championship in July.

As highlighted in the preview, length off the tee has been important in all four previous editions so the fact that Sargent hits it a country mile off the tee bodes very well.

Course debutants have featured heavily on the final leaderboards at the last two editions so the fact that Sargent has never played here before may even be a bonus.

Mexico Open Bet 2 - Back Rasmus Hojgaard @ 100.099/1

Although the 25-year-old Dane, Rasmus Hojgaard, has won six times on the DP World Tour, the closest he's come to winning on the PGA Tour is second in the Zurich Classic Pairs event with his twin, Nicolai, and third in the now defunct Sanderson Farms Championship last year, but it's his other two top six finishes on the PGA Tour that are more pertinent here.

Hojgaard finished sixth in the aforementioned Corales Puntacana Championship as long ago as 2022 and he finished fourth in the Rocket Classic in August behind last year's beaten playoff protagonist here, Potgieter.

The Rocket Classic is staged at the Donald Ross designed Detroit Golf Club and although it doesn't appear similar to this weeks' venue - the Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta - it also produces a low-scoring birdie-fest more often than not and Finau also boosts the link.

Finau won the Rocket Classic in 26-under-par, two months after finishing second behind Rahm in the inaugural edition of this event and 10 months before he won it with a 24-under-par total.

Sitting at number 115 in the FedEx Cup standings, like Sargent, Hojgaard also needs to get his skates on to keep his playing privileges.

Chandler Blanchet, Cam Davis and Nick Dunlap were also carefully considered but I'm happy to cap the selections to two.

As always, I'll be looking to trade any of the picks in-running if their odds hit single figure prices on the Betfair Exchange and I'll be taking plenty of profit should they trade at odds-on at any point.

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