The Punter's In-Play Blog: Tommy favourite to convert at East Lake

• Penge fancied to go back-to-back

• Swedish long shot backed to boost Belgian course link

• Tour Championship tough to call with 18 to play

---

08:30 - August 24, 2025

A decade after he won his first professional tournament in this event at Woburn, Matt Fitzpatrick will take a one stroke lead into round four of this year's edition of the British Masters. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:00.

Matt Fitzpatrick -12 2.6413/8
Alex Noren -11 5.24/1
Marco Penge -10 7.87/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -10 9.417/2
Matt Wallace -9 20.019/1
Adam Cameron -9 55.054/1
Simon Forsstrom -9 80.079/1
-8 and 50.049/1 bar

This is a high-quality leaderboard with five players at the top that have every right to consider themselves candidates for Luke Donald's Ryder Cup side but the man most likely to claim a place is the leader, Fitzpatrick, and he looks fairly priced at in excess of 6/42.50 with just 18 to play.

Fitzpatrick has led or been tied for the lead with a round to go 14 times previously and he's gone on to win on seven occasions, so he has a great strike rate but is his lead big enough today?

Fitzpatrick is the ninth player to hold a clear 54-hole advantage at the Belfry since the turn of the century but only three of the previous eight converted and they all led by at least three. The five players to lead by just one or two strokes all failed.

The hardworking Swedish veteran and 2016 winner, Alex Noren, is Fitzpatrick's closest challenger and two-ball partner today but it's more than seven years since he last won and the two players tied for third, Nicolai Hojgaard and Marco Penge, could be nicely placed to pounce.

Hojgaard sparked to life on the back nine yesterday, coming home in just 29 strokes having been matched at as high as 100.099/1 but I prefer the chances of last week's winner, Penge.

Just one week after getting the better of Nicolai's twin, Rasmus, in the brothers' homeland, Penge has given himself a fantastic chance to go back-to-back with yesterday's course record equalling bogey-free nine-under-par 63.

Matched at as high as 240.0239/1, the Englishman looked to have far too much on his plate at halfway but now just two off the lead, he'll be confident of doubling up and really catching Luke's eye and having backed him at halfway last week, I'm happy to chance him again here.

My halfway in-play pick, Matt Wallace, kept himself in the argument with a decent back nine yesterday and I've also added Simon Forsstrom at a tasty price.

The Swede came into the event trading at 1000.0999/1 having missed his last four cuts but having highlighted the link between the Belfry and Rinkven in the preview, I can't let the 2023 Soudal Open winner out at a juicy price given he trails by just three.

His Rinkven success two years is his only previous victory on the DP World Tour so he's far from prolific but he won that event in style and he was woefully out of form before the off then too.

Over at the Tour Championship, although the course played soft, a tricky wind proved problematic and Keegan Bradley's seven-under-par 63 form off the pace was the best round of the day.

The number one in the FedEx Cup standings coming into the event, Scottie Scheffler, got back on track after Friday's 69 with a four-under-par 66 but the most significant move was made by Patrick Cantlay, who birdied the last three holes to post a six-under-par 64. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:00.

Tommy Fleetwood -16 2.6213/8
Patrick Cantlay -16 3.39/4
Russell Henley -14 8.27/1
Keegan Bradley -13 22.021/1
Scottie Scheffler -12 7.413/2
Cameron Young -10 180.0179/1
-9 and 600.0599/1 bar

Having been matched at as short as 1.9520/21, Tommy Fleetwood bounced back brilliantly in round three with birdies at 16 and 17 after a double-bogey five at the ridiculously tough par three 15^th and he now heads the market with 18 to play.

It's a strange situation having Fleetwood and Cantlay tied and two clear of the rest.

Fleetwood is yet to win on the PGA Tour and Cantlay has been largely anonymous throughout 2025, with his ninth in the FedEx St Jude Championship two weeks ago his only top 10 finish since May.

Fleetwood finally shaking the monkey off his back in an event of this magnitude would be brilliant, but the cold hard fact is that he struggles too much under the gun to be considered a viable play at not much bigger than 6/42.50.

Tommy Fleetwood is the 27th player in the last 10 years on the PGA Tour to hold a 54-hole lead or co-lead 3+ times in the same season.

24 of the previous 26 converted at least 1 of those leads.

Exceptions:
'20-21 Russell Henley, '22-23 Patrick Rodgers

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) August 24, 2025

The 2021 FedEx Cup champion, Cantlay, hasn't won in more than three years but if forced to pick one of the front two, he'd be my choice at the prices.

With eight PGA Tour titles to his name already, the 33-year-old shouldn't feel the pressure as much as Fleetwood but I'm leaving the tournament alone now.

Sitting two back, Russell Henley is nicely positioned and fairly priced at 7/18.00 but as Justin Ray's tweet above shows, he's not always great in-the-mix and it would surprise nobody if Scheffler reels them all in.

The world number one hasn't been at his best this week and he's seeking to be the first player to win back-to-back FedEx Cups, but it would be a fitting end to the season if he transpires to being the man holding the trophy this evening.

---

09:15 - August 23, 2025

After two rounds at the Belfry, the British Masters is still a tough tournament to entangle.

German veteran, Marcel Siem, shows the way but with 13 players within four strokes of his lead, it's a very open looking affair. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:55.

Marcel Siem -9 9.617/2
Matt Fitzpatrick -8 3.3512/5
Matt Wallace -7 8.88/1
Brandon Stone -7 18.017/1
Kazuma Kobori -7 21.020/1
Elvis Smylie -6 29.028/1
Alex Fitzpatrick -6 32.031/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -5 21.020/1
-5 and 23.022/1 bar

Halfway leaders don't have a magnificent record at the Belfry with only two of the 19 men to be leading or tied for the lead going on to win here this century.

Henrik Stenson successfully converted a three-stroke lead in the now defunct Benson & Hedges International Open way back in 2001 and Richard Bland won this event four years ago, having been tied at the top at halfway, although he was sitting tied for 12^th after 54 holes following a poor third round!

Last year's winner, Niklas Norgaard, sat tied for fifth and two off the lead, held by Tyrrell Hatton, but three of the last six Belfry winners have been outside the top 10 with two rounds to play.

Matt Fitzpatrick, who was a well fancied 11/112.00 chance before the off, is the man to beat at halfway but given the in-running stats here and the bunched leaderboard, he makes little appeal at less than 5/23.50.

His brother, Alex, is a tempting price at over 30/131.00 and the Danish twins, Nicolai and Rasmus Hojgaard, who sit on -5 and -4 respectively, command plenty of respect but the one I like at this stage is next week's defending champion, Matt Wallace.

The 35-year-old Englishman won the Omega European Masters in a playoff having led by four after rounds two and three, so it wasn't pretty but he's a tough competitor and his stats look good after two rounds.

Wallace ranks 14^th for Putting Average, 11^th for Greens In Regulation, and seventh for the crucial stat here, Scrambling.

Generally a 6/17.00 chance and no bigger than 7/18.00, he's fractionally big at 8.88/1 and I was happy to chance him modestly.

Over at the Tour Championship, Scottie Scheffler stuttered a bit on day two and having been matched at as low as 1.981/1, he now trails the halfway leaders by five at East Lake.

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 9:05.

Tommy Fleetwood -13 3.39/4
Russell Henley -13 3.6553/20
Cameron Young -11 11.010/1
Robert Macintyre -10 19.018/1
Patrick Cantlay -10 19.018/1
Scottie Scheffler -8 7.26/1
Rory McIlroy -7 27.026/1
-7 and 90.089/1

Scheffler described himself as being "just a touch off all day" yesterday and it may well have left him too much to do.

With the course playing soft, East Lake is averaging just 67.03 after the first two days and it's not going to get any tougher over the weekend.

We've already seen six rounds of 63 and below and the leaders are going to be tough to pass.

Sitting on -7, Ben Griffin looks to have a bit too much on his plate but Dave Tindall's other two each-way fancies, Tommy Fleetwood and Cameron Young, sit tied first and tied third and the latter named, who I also backed before the off, looks to be the value play at halfway.

Tommy's in-contention troubles are well documented but the man alongside him, Russell Henley, isn't the greatest in-the-mix either.

Henley successfully converted a two-stroke 36-hole lead at the Sony Open 12 years ago and he won the World Wide Technology Championship two years ago having led by three at this stage, but he's led or been tied for the lead on eight other occasions on the PGA Tour without converting and both leaders look opposable.

It took a long time for Cameron Young to finally win on the PGA Tour but he did it in style last month, shooting rounds of 63, 62, 65 and 68 at the Wyndham Championship to claim his first title by six strokes.

As highlighted in the preview, form at East Lake and Sedgefield, which are both Donald Ross designs, crosses over really well (Henley led the Wyndham Championship at halfway in 2021 and 2023) so it's no surprise to see Young contending and now that the conditions are so soft, he looks a great price here at 10/111.00.

The 28-year-old New Yorker has the added pressure of trying to get into the USA Ryder Cup team, but he loves a birdie fest and I'm happy to top up on my position at 11.010/1.

Cameron Young holds third place @TOURChamp into a weekend at East Lake that doubles as his final audition for a Ryder Cup captain's pick. pic.twitter.com/JK1ecBltuf

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 22, 2025

---

Now read more Golf tips and previews here