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Stats suggest Forrest is fairly priced
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Pre-event picks nicely poised in both events
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World number one the man to beat at TPC Southwind
08:00- August 10, 2025
The halfway favourite at the NEXO Championship, Jordan Smith, has played his way out of contention after a 78 in round three but with two birdies at his last two holes on Saturday, the halfway leader, Grant Forrest, has eased three clear of the rest. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 07:40.
Grant Forrest -8 2.166/5
Kristoffer Reitan -5 4.94/1
Todd Clements -5 7.413/2
Daan Huizing -5 19.018/1
Andy Sullivan -3 26.025/1
Jacob Skov Olesen -3 27.026/1
Joe Dean -3 28.027/1
Eddie Pepperell-2 95.094/1
-1 and 110.0109/1 bar
Forrest is the 36th player to lead a DP World Tour event by three with 18 to play in the last 10 years and he's looking to become the 23rd to convert.
That's a reasonable strike rate of 63%, suggesting he's a fair price at odds-against but the last four men to lead by three through 54 holes have all been beaten - Joost Luiten at the BMW International in 2023, Matteo Manassero at the BMW PGA last year, Aldrich Potgieter at the Nedbank Challenge in December and Brandon Robinson-Thompson in Turkey in May.
Forrest has never held a clear lead through three rounds previously, but he was tied at the top after 54 holes when he won his only event to date - the Hero Open in 2021.
Forrest will find conditions far kinder today and the scoring is going to be lower so he's going to need to keep moving forward.
At around 11/102.11, I'm more than happy to swerve the leader and I'm quite hopeful that my pre-event pick, Kristoffer Reitan, can bridge the gap.
Back Kristoffer Reitan
The Norwegian's four-under-par 68 in the tricky conditions yesterday was the round of the day and he looks very fairly priced at around 4/15.00.
The leaders tee off at 11:15 and the live coverage on Sky starts 15 minutes later.
Over at the FedEx St Jude Championship, the halfway leader, Tommy Fleetwood, was matched at as low as 1.784/5 when he birdied the second hole of his third round but a double-bogey seven followed at the par five third. Although he recovered nicely enough after that, a bogey at the last has produced a tight looking leaderboard. Here's the latest state of play at 07:50.
Tommy Fleetwood -14 2.767/4
Justin Rose -13 6.411/2
Scottie Scheffler -12 2.9215/8
JJ Spaun -11 17.016/1
Andrew Novak -1123.022/1
-9 and 85.084/1 bar
And here's where the last 10 course winners were sitting through 54 holes, together with the prices that they were trading at with 18 to play.
2024 - Hideki Matsuyama led by five 1.261/4
2023 - Lucas Glover - led by one 3.6553/20
2022 - Will Zalatoris - tied third - trailing by two 5.59/2
2021 - Abraham Ancer - solo fourth - trailing by four 18.017/1
2020 - Justin Thomas - solo fifth - trailing by four 10.09/1
2019 - Brooks Koepka - solo second - trailing by one 3.4549/20
2018 - Dustin Johnson - tied for the lead 1.4640/85
2017 - Daniel Berger - T9 - trailing by three 20.019/1
2016 - Daniel Berger - leading by three 2.447/5
2015 - Fabian Gomez - tied for the lead 6.86/1
Given the quality at the very top of the leaderboard and the data above, it's extremely difficult to see any of the players trailing by five and more figuring from here.
The US Open winner JJ Spaun is a tempting price at 16/117.00 but having backed Scheffler before the off, and having layed Fleetwood yesterday, I've made my bed and I'm going to leave the event alone for now.
Despite the proximity of the world number one, Fleetwood still heads the market and I'm far from convinced that's correct.
As highlighted in yesterday's post (see below), he's far from reliable in contention and if I wasn't already onboard, and if I hadn't already taken on the leader, I'd be backing Scheffler this morning at odds of around 15/82.88.
Back Scottie Scheffler
09:00 - August 9, 2025
After two gruelling days at the glorious new Trump International Golf Links layout, pre-event 65.064/1 chance, Grant Forrest, leads the well-fancied Englishman, Jordan Smith, by a stroke and those two dominate the NEXO Championship market.
Here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back at 08:45.
Grant Forrest -7 3.8514/5
Jordan Smith -6 3.052/1
Richard Sterne -4 34.033/1
Daan Huizing -3 80.079/1
-2 and 19.018/1 bar
Play is underway in round three already and the leaders tee off at 11:45, 45 minutes before the live coverage starts on Sky, and I'm happy to leave the event alone for now.
The front two are tough to fancy and both look short enough, although if forced to pick one, I'd plump for the leader.
Forrest's sole success came four years ago in the now defunct Hero Open around the Torrence Course at the St Andrews Bay Golf Resort & Spa, so his only win has come in homeland around a links layout.
Smith is notoriously poor in contention and he's more than capable of treading water over the weekend as the pack closes in.
The wind is predicted to keep blowing again today, although not as hard as it has done over the first two days, but it's forecast to lay down tomorrow and scoring should be low.
Although the front two are a couple clear of the rest, 18 players were under-par at halfway and the likes of pre-event favourite, Marco Penge, who started both rounds one and two poorly, and my pre-event fancy, Kristoffer Reitan, look dangerous on -1.
Over at the FedEx St Jude Championship, Friday's stormy weather has meant the event hasn't yet reached the halfway stage but there's no doubt whatsoever who's going to be leading at the midway point.
Rounds of 63 and 64 have seen Tommy Fleetwood shoot four clear of the field and he's trading at just 2.285/4 to finally get off the mark on the PGA Tour, one week after Cameron Young won his first PGA Tour event.
Fleetwood may well draw inspiration from Young's victory, but he's been hopeless in contention at times and I'm more than happy to take him on at such a short price.
Lay Tommy Fleetwood
His latest chance to win on the PGA Tour was at the Travelers Championship in June where he led by three with 18 to play.
He was matched at a low of 1.121/8 on that occasion but yet again he fell short at the business end of the event and I'm happy to lay him at around 5/42.25 here.
The world number one, Scottie Scheffler, who trails Fleetwood by six on -7 is the second favourite but the one I've chanced this morning is my other pre-event fancy, last week's winner, Young.
Back Cameron Young
It's perhaps understandable that Young took his time to get going on day one but he returns to TPC Southwind today with four holes of round two to play and there's every chance he can draw alongside Scheffler.
Although only on five-under-par, Young has three feet for a birdie on 15 before playing the par five 16th.
So far this week, the 16th is averaging just 4.37 so it's odds-on he birdies 15 and 16 and he's definitely too big at a triple-figure price given he's a 66/167.00 chance on the High Street.