FedEx St Jude Championship: Cam Young a fair price to double up at 45/1

• Par 4 Scoring and Scrambling the stats to concentrate on

• Strong Sony Open form is a big plus

• Older pros can prosper at TPC Southwind

• Cam Young a FedEx St Jude pick at 46.045/1 on Betfair Exchange 

• Read my NEXO Championship preview here

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Tournament History

There has been a PGA Tour event staged in Memphis since 1958.

Originally known as the Memphis Open, the St Jude Invitational was a fairly big event on the PGA Tour for years, but its status was elevated considerably in 2018 when it became one of the high-profile World Golf Championship events.

The WGC events are consigned to history now, after the final edition of the WGC Match Play in 2023, but the FedEx St Jude Championship is still a very prestigious event having replaced the Northern Trust three years ago - an event that had kicked off the FedEx Cup Playoff Series since its inception in 2007,

The first of three FedEx Cup Playoff Series events, the FedEx St Jude Championship features a limited field for the top 70 in the FedEx Cup Standings after the last counting event (last week's Wyndham Championship).

The FedEx Cup Playoff Series was reduced from four events to three in 2019 and the field numbers were reduced two years ago.

A field of 125 lined-up here three years ago but for the third year in-a-row that has been reduced to 70 and at the end of this event, the top 50 in the FedEx Cup Standings will move on to the Cave Valleys Golf Club in Maryland for the BMW Championship before the top-30 fight it out at East Lake in a fortnight's time to determine the overall FedEx Cup winner.

This will the 37th year in-a-row that TPC Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event.

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Venue

TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee

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Course Details

Par 70 -7,243 yards 
Stroke Index in 2024 - 68.95

Designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green, and opened in 1988, TPC Southwind has always been a fairly stern test, but it was made even tougher 11 years ago.

An additional 125 trees were planted, 15 new bunkers were added (taking the total up to 96), the par five fifth was converted to a par four (reducing the par to 70), the Zoysia fairways were re-contoured and narrowed and more than 200 yards was added.

The smaller than average greens, which usually run at 12 ½ on the stimpmeter, were also changed from bentgrass to Bermuda.

Water is in play on 10 holes at Southwind and nine holes are doglegs.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

 

Live on Sky Sports all four days beginning at 13:00 UK time on Thursday

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Recent TPC Southwind with Pre-event Exchange Prices

First Three FedEx St Jude Winners with Exchange Price

2024 - Hideki Matsuyama -17 34.033/1
2023 - Lucas Glover -15 (Playoff) 120.0119/1
2022 - Will Zalatoris -15 (Playoff) 23.022/1

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WGC FedEx St Jude Winners with Exchange Prices 

2021 - Abraham Ancer -16 55.054/1 -16 (playoff)
2020 - Justin Thomas - 13 14.527/2
2019 - Brooks Koepka -16 11.010/1

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Last Four St Jude Winners with Exchange Prices

2018 - Dustin Johnson -19 8.27/1
2017 - Daniel Berger -10 34.033/1
2016 - Daniel Berger -13 30.029/1
2015 - Fabian Gomez -13 600.0599/1

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What Will it Take to Win the win the FedEx St Jude?

None of the driving stats stand out at TPC Southwind. The last five winners have ranked 16^th, 18^th,16^th, 31^st and 15^th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and neither of the traditional driving metrics - Driving Distance or Driving Accuracy - have come to the fore consistently.

It doesn't need to be overpowered and it's not so fiddly that you need to be arrow-straight off the tee. Last year's winner, Hideki Matsuya, ranked 21^st for DD and 25^th for DA

The 2023 winner, Lucas Glover ranked only 37^th for Greens In Regulation and 11 years ago, the winner, Ben Crane, only ranked 47^th but GIR is usually a key stat.

Matsuyama ranked fourth 12 months ago, and Glover and Crane are the only course winners in the last 15 years not to rank inside the top ten for that stat.

Matsuyama ranked only 18^th for Scrambling and Daniel Berger, who won back-to-back here in 2016 and 2017, had Scrambling stats that were much worse than most Southwind winners. He ranked 24^th eight years ago and 38^th in 2017 but seven of the ten winners before him ranked no worse than seventh and it's usually a key stat.

The first and second in 2018 ranked fourth and third for Scrambling, Koepka ranked number one in 2019, and Thomas ranked seventh in 2021. Abraham Ancer ranked first in 2021, Zalatoris ranked seventh three years ago, and Glover topped the Scrambling stats in 2023.

The first and second ranked third and first on the par fours last year and that's typical.

Glover and the man he beat in extra time, Patrick Cantlay, played the par fours in eight-under-par in 2023 and that was better than anyone else in the field. The two playoff protagonists 12 months earlier, Will Zalatoris and Sepp Straka, ranked second and first for Par 4 Scoring, Abraham Ancer ranked third when he won here in 2021, and the 2020 course winner, Justin Thomas, ranked second.

The 2019 winner, Brooks Koepka, and the runner-up, Webb Simpson, ranked first and third, and Dustin Johnson and Andrew Putnam, the first two home in 2018, ranked first and second for Par 4 Scoring so 11 of the last 12 course winners have now ranked inside the top-four for that stat.

Par 4 Scoring and Scrambling are the two stats to concentrate on.

There were no Strokes Gained stats for the 2019 and 2020 events here but in the last six tournaments here in which there were SG stats, the winners have ranked first, first, fourth, first, fourth and ninth for SG: Tee-to Green.

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Is There an Angle In?

With previous figures reading 18-MC-15, the 2021 course winner, Abraham Ancer, didn't have a brilliant Southwind CV but he beat last year's champ, Matsuyama, in the playoff, the 2023 winner, Lucas Glover, had finished third the year before he won and the 2022 winner, Zalatoris, had finished eighth on his only previous appearance.

Justin Thomas had finished 12^th on debut in 2019 before winning in 2020, Brooks Koepka has course form figures reading 19-3-2-27-30-1-2-54 at TPC Southwind, Dustin Johnson was winning here for a second time in 2018, and Daniel Berger has figures reading 1-1-MC-2-5 but prior to nine years ago previous course form had been far from essential, and debutants had a really good record.

In his two visits before his win ten years ago, Fabian Gomez had finished 15th on debut in 2011 before missing the cut in 2013, and the 2014 winner, Ben Crane, had inconsistent course form figures reading MC-6-33-39-14-12-MC-18, but at least they'd played the course before...

Berger was making his debut when he won in 2016, the 2013 winner, Harris English, was playing in his first event at TPC Southwind, DJ had never played here before when he won in 2012 and neither had the 2011 champ, Lee Westwood, who beat another first-timer, Robert Karlsson, in a playoff. 
Course form may have been key of late, but I wouldn't dismiss anyone on account of a lack of course knowledge. 

Several courses correlate nicely with TPC Southwind. Results at the Puerto Rico Open, the RSM Classic, the Charles Schwab Invitational and the World Wide Technology in Mexico, when it was played at El Camaleon, are all worth checking out but the strongest correlation appears to be with the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Matsuyama, Fabian Gomez, Justin Thomas and David Toms have won at both TPC Southwind and Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony Open, and TPC Southwind winners, Lucas Glover, Harris English, Harrison Frazar and Brian Gay, have all also been placed in Hawaii.

The 2020 Sony Open winner, Cameron Smith, was in-contention here three years ago and he should have got into the playoff at least in 2021 (matched at a low of 2.3811/8).

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

It may be worth placing a small wager on Cameron Young after his victory in the Wyndham Championship, and it may also be worth backing whoever wins here this week at the BMW Championship next week.

Lucas Glover went back-to-back two years ago, winning here after winning the Wyndham, and Viktor Hovland then won both the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship.

Last year's Playoff events were won by Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley and Scottie Scheffler but someone has won two FedEx Cup Playoff events in 10 of the last 12 years, and on a staggering 12 occasions in total.

I've often sided with the previous week's winner during the Playoff Series, but Glover's victory here two years ago suggests that we can extended that system to backing the Wyndham winner here too.

Zalatoris won two days before his 26^th birthday in 2022 and five of the last nine winners have been in their 20s but historically, this has been a great venue for veterans.

The 32-year-old Matsuyama was a 34.033/1 shot but 43-year-old Glover was a 120.0119/1 chance two years, and this has been a very good venue for outsiders and veterans.

Like last week's venue, Sedgefield, TPC Southwind is a course that doesn't need to be overpowered so it's one that gives the older pros a bit of a chance.

Fabian Gomez was matched at 610.0609/1 a decade ago and Ben Crane was a 270.0269/1 chance in 2014. In addition to those two, the likes of Harrison Frazar, Woody Austin, Jeff Maggert, Len Mattiace, Bob Estes, Notah Begay, Ted Tryba and Dicky Pride have all left punters scratching their heads over the last 25 years.

Prior to Berger's initial success seven years ago, only four other men in their 20s had won here since 1989. Pride in 1994, Begay in 2000, Dustin Johnson in 2012 and English in 2013. And in that period, six winners had been in their 40s. Gomez was 36 in 2013, Crane was 38 a year later and Frazar was only days away from his 40th birthday 14 years ago.

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Course Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Hideki Matsuyama led by five 1.261/4
2023 - Lucas Glover - led by one 3.6553/20
2022 - Will Zalatoris - tied third - trailing by two 5.59/2
2021 - Abraham Ancer - solo fourth - trailing by four 18.017/1
2020 - Justin Thomas - solo fifth - trailing by four 10.09/1
2019 - Brooks Koepka - solo second - trailing by one 3.4549/20
2018 - Dustin Johnson - tied for the lead 1.4640/85
2017 - Daniel Berger - T9 - trailing by three 20.019/1
2016 - Daniel Berger - leading by three 2.447/5
2015 - Fabian Gomez - tied for the lead 6.86/1

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In-Play Tactics

Matsuyama was in front at halfway having sat second after round one and Glover was in front after rounds two and three before eventually beating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff, having sat tied for fifth after round one but it's perfectly possible to win here from off the pace.

Having been very well supported before the off in 2022, Zalatoris drifted all the way out to 800.0799/1 when he played the first nine holes of the tournament in two-over-par, and he demonstrated perfectly how a slow start can be overcome when he sat tied for 86^th and nine adrift after round one.

A 62 in round two moved Ancer from tied 13^th to second and he was never more than five adrift four years ago but the 2020 winner, Thomas, sat fifth after the first round before falling back to 12^th at halfway. He was matched at 95.094/1 during round two and he trailed by seven strokes at halfway but that's as far back at that stage as any course winner this century. An off the pace winner can't be ruled out if the 2021 renewal is anything to go by...

Sam Burns and Matsuyama muscled their way into the playoff won by Ancer having both been matched at 1000.0999/1 when trailing by eight and nine strokes respectively after three rounds and Berger's victory eight years was unusual given how slow he started.

He trailed by six after the opening round and, like Thomas, by seven at halfway. He was matched at a whopping 190.0189/1 in-running so there's plenty of evidence to suggest a slow start can be overcome but most winners here are in the van throughout.

In 2019, Koepka, was tied for 18^th and six behind the leader, Jon Rahm, after round one and he was four adrift of the halfway pacesetter, Matt Fitzpatrick, before moving in to second behind Rory McIlroy with a round to go.

As an indication as to how well the venue has historically favoured frontrunners, when Ben Crane won here 11 years ago, he was the sixth wire-to-wire winner since 1996 and he was the first winner on the PGA Tour to fail to record a birdie in round four since Justin Leonard had won here in 2005, suggesting that this really is somewhere that you can start fast and cling on.

It may also be somewhere that you can get a clear leader beat though. Although he went on to win by two, Matsuyama very nearly threw the event away on Sunday last year (Viktor Hovland was matched at 1.674/6 in-running), and when the aforementioned Leonard won here by a stroke 20 years ago, he'd led by eight with 18 to play!

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Scheffler value at more than 3/1

As highlighted in the Open Championship De-Brief, Scottie Scheffler has been a profitable player to follow over the last few years and although it took him a bit of time to get to grips with TPC Southwind, he again looks more than fairly priced at more than 3/14.00.

Scheffler's Southwind form figures read an ordinary MC-43-15-14-MC-31-4 so it's not a venue at which he's shone but with current form figures reading 1-1-4-1-7-6-8-1, I'm happy to get him onside modestly.

Scheffler tops both the Par 4 Performance and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green statistics on the PGA Tour and he ranks second for Scrambling, so he's a perfect fit statistically and it's perhaps a little surprising that it took until last year for him to contend here.

On a run of 11 straight top 10 finishes after his victory Royal Portrush, it's very hard to imagine him not contending again here and I wanted him onside.

Cameron Young couldn't have been more impressive at Sedgefield last week where he trotted up by six strokes to claim his first PGA Tour title and it would be no surprise to see him go in again immediately.

"I've been waiting for it for a while. I never thought I'd really be that emotional about it."

An emotional breakthrough victory for Cameron Young pic.twitter.com/mf0hpA3kyn

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 3, 2025

As highlighted above, Lucas Glover followed up his victory at Sedgefield with victory in this event two years ago and Young looks a fair price to repeat the feat at 45/146.00 despite his somewhat underwhelming TPC Southwind form figures reading 31-31-61.

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