The Punter's In-Play Blog: Griffin three clear in Mississippi

• Rain stops play in Scotland again

• Ben Griffin odds-on in Mississippi

• Champ and Aberg the best alternatives

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09:55- October 8, 2023

We're heading for a Monday finish at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

The plan is to complete round three today and to play the fourth and final round tomorrow but with yet more rain falling this morning, there's a chance that won't happen.

Round 3 tee times across all three course have been delayed and will not start at 09:00 local time. #dunhilllinks

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) October 8, 2023

Either way, I'll be back in the morning with a look at the state of play before the final round but in the meantime, there's just one round to go in Mississippi, where Ben Griffin leads the Sanderson Farms Championship by three. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:50.

Ben Griffin -20 1.75/7
Carl Yuan -17 13.012/1
Luke list -16 14.013/1
Scott Stallings -16 15.014/1
Henrik Norlander -16 21.020/1
Cameron Champ -15 27.026/1
Zecheng Dou -15 48.047/1
Ludvig Aberg -14 25.024/1
Adam Svensson -14 50.049/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -13 150.0149/1
-12 and 260.0259/1 bar

We've had nine previous renewals at Jackson Country Club and history suggests we can't scan too far down the leaderboard after 54 holes.

Nick Taylor trailed by four in a tie for fifth with a round to go in 2014 before he shot 66 to win by two but the two-stroke 54-hole leader, John Rollins, misfired with a 73 on Sunday and every other course winner since has been within a stroke of the lead after three rounds.

The leader, Ben Griffin, is nil from two when leading but he might just take some catching this time given the stats.

The 27-year-old was tied for the lead with a round to go at the Astara Golf Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in February last year, but he was beaten by a stroke, and he shot 72 in round four of the Bermuda Championship on the PGA Tour in October to finish third having started the final round tied at the top with the eventual winner, Seamus Power.

Despite Griffin being in search of his first victory, the previous results here make him a fair price at 1.75/7 but on the other hand, the record of three-stroke 54-hole leaders on the PGA Tour suggest he should be priced a bit bigger...

Since 1996, 134 players have taken a three-stroke lead into the final round of a 72-hole PGA Tour event (including co-sanctioned tournaments) and only 71 (53%) of them went on to convert.

Everything hinges on how Griffin performs. If he's as composed and comfortable as he was yesterday, a facile victory looks highly likely but golf's just not like that.

If Griffin does falter, Ludvig Aberg and the 2018 winner, Cameron Champ, look the biggest dangers.

Aberg got off the mark on the DP World Tour in Switzerland last month when the 54-hole leader, Matt Fitzpatrick, stuttered in round four and he'll be well aware that if he posts a low score today, he's got a chance.

The Swede is no bigger than 20/121.00 on the High Street so the 25.024/1 available this morning is tempting but six strokes is a lot to make up and given he's already won here before and that he's one stroke nearer to the lead, my idea of the best value alternative to the frontrunner is Champ, who's already won three times on the PGA Tour.

Griffin is going to take some catching but I'm never in a rush to take odds-on about someone in search of their first win.

Alternatives look thin on the ground but I was happy to have a tiny wager on Champ at 28.027/1.

15:10- October 7, 2023

Relentless rainfall has caused a cancellation of play for the entirety of today at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship but we're all still in the dark as to where we go from here.

With it being a pro-am, and with more rain predicted to fall tomorrow, it's obviously complicated to decide how to finish the tournament but it's a bit frustrating for us punters.

They could decide to scrap the fourth round altogether and declare the result after 54-holes, but they went to a Monday finish back in 2009 when Simon Dyson got the better of Rory McIlroy and Oliver Wilson. I wouldn't automatically assume they'll play past the weekend this time around though. We'll just have to wait and see.

Over on the PGA Tour, a sensational nine-under-par 63 in round two has seen Ben Griffin hit the front at the Sanderson Farms Championship in Mississippi.

The 27-year-old Californian leads by two on 14-under-par but with eight players within three, his advantage looks fragile.

There's a gap of two strokes to the five players tied for tenth on nine-under-par and the stats suggest they're too far back given every course winner here has been inside the top ten places through 36 holes.

Griffin is the sixth player to hold a clear advantage at halfway at Jackson and only one of the previous five have gone on to win.

Ryan Armour, who led by just one after 36 holes in 2017, shot 67-68 over the weekend to win by five but Roberto Castro finished only fourth in 2015, having led by four at this stage and the three players to hold a two-shot lead before Griffin, Grayson Murray (2016), Byeong Hun An (2019) and Keegan Bradlwy (2020), all failed to convert. Murray finished eighth, An third, and Bradley fourth.

It's clearly a tricky event to untangle but the one I quite like is Troy Merritt, who was one of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks last time out at the Fortinet Championship.

Merritt finished seventh in California having sat tied for 127th and 11 off the lead after round one so there was no chance of making any money trading him but it was an encouraging performance to say the least and he's cracked on after a slow start here too.

Merritt sat tied for 27th after his 68 on Thursday so he's moving through the gears nicely again this week given he now sits tied for sixth after yesterday's 65 and he looks a very fair price.

The two-time PGA Tour winner is no bigger than 18/119.00 on the High Street so I was more than happy to chance him at 25.024/1.

09:15- October 7, 2023

Play has already been delayed by an hour at all three courses due to the relentless heavy rain and with standing water pooling, there's even a chance we don't get any play today and the event runs into Monday.

It's not looking good if this photo of the second at St Andrews is anything to go by.

08:45- October 7, 2023

As many as four of the last five winners of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship were drawn at St Andrews on day one but that looks like the worst place to have kicked off this year's renewal.

Those that opened-up at the Home of Golf on Thursday played Carnoustie in the blustery conditions yesterday and it seems they've all been blown off course.

Peter Uihlein, who was one of three players tied for the lead after round one, and Nicolas Colsaerts, both trail the halfway leader, Matt Fitzpatrick, by five strokes and they're the only two players that kicked off at St Andrews on day one inside the top-15 at halfway. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back 8:40, together with courses to be played today.

Matt Fitzpatrick -13 2.26/5 (SA)
Grant Forrest -12 14.013/1 (C)
Nacho Elvira -12 29.028/1 (C)
Matthew Southgate -10 15.014/1 (SA)
Marcus Armitage -10 90.089/1 (C))
Ryan Fox -9 9.28/1 (SA)
Billy Horschel -9 15.014/1 (SA)
Sami Valimaki -9 90.089/1 (C)
Matthieu Pavon -9 140.0139/1 (C)
-8 and 30.029/1 bar

After a sensational eight-under-par 64, Matthew Fitzpatrick, who's partnering his mum, Susan, in the Pro-Am this week, has hit the front and punters have to decide whether he's too short at just a shade of odds-against.

Playing St Andrews today, and three clear of anyone else playing there today, the price doesn't look too short but he's not for me.

It's going to be a long two days in the rain, with up to 2 inches predicted to fall today alone, and anyone that was onboard the Sheffielder in Switzerland last month won't be in hurry to side with him either. He was matched at just 1.081/12 when he led by two with four to play but bogeyed three of the last four holes to finish third - beaten by three!

Fitzpatrick is a very experienced major champion so it would be ludicrous to suggest he can't be trusted in-contention but at the prices, I'm happy to leave him alone and see how Thursday's in-play pick, Grant Forrest, who sits tied for second, fares today.

I'll be back shortly with a look at the Sanderson Farms Championship, where Ben Griffin leads by two at the halfway stage.

19:45- October 5, 2023

The afternoon wave has only just started their opening rounds at the Sanderson Farms Championship, where earlier starter, Henrik Norlander, leads following a seven-under-par 65 around Jackson Country Club but the opening round is all done and dusted at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, where three men are tied at the top on -8 - Peter Uihlein, Adri Arnaus and Sebastian Soderberg.

The Alfred Dunhill is always a tricky tournament to assess given it's played over three different courses over the first three days (before the final round is played out at St Andrews) and it's made even trickier when the weather varies dramatically throughout the week. And if the forecast is anything to go by, that's going to be the case this year.

With the wind predicted to gust at up to almost 40 mph, where you play tomorrow could have a huge say in the outcome, and although it's predicted to drop slightly on Saturday, the field will then have to cope with heavy rain.

The easiest course today was Kingsbarns, which averaged well over two-strokes under-par at 69.65, and the hardest was Carnoustie, which averaged fractionally over-par at 72.22. St Andrews averaged 69.89 and that might be the best place to be tomorrow.

Carnoustie is always the toughest venues and Kingsbarns is very exposed so the Home of Golf may turn out to be the best place to be tomorrow and the only man inside the top-nine playing St Andrews in round two is Scotland's Grant Forrest, who looks a tasty price at 40.039/1 given he's no bigger than 33/134.00 and generally a 28/129.00 chance on the High Street.

The defending champ, Ryan Fox, is a stroke behind Forrest and two off the lead in a tie for 10th but he's the clear favourite after an impressive start at Carnoustie.

2022 at Carnoustie: 74
2023 at Carnoustie: 66

Carnoustie conquered. Is @ryanfoxgolfer on for another memorable Alfred Dunhill Links Championship? https://t.co/VJVKZqctMb pic.twitter.com/P6Cw48Mh0l

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) October 5, 2023

The 6/17.00 available about the Kiwi looks fair enough if he can survive the blustery conditions tomorrow and the stats suggest we can't scan too much further down the leaderboard than that.

We've had 21 previous renewals and Fox is one of only three winners to be trailing by more than four strokes after round one. Fox was tied 11th and five back 12 months ago, Paul Lawrie, in 2001, was six adrift and Stephen Gallagher, in 2004, sat eight off the lead.

The five winners before Fox were all within three after round one but if your picks have started slowly, I wouldn't panic just yet. Poor weather always offers up a chance for players to make up ground from way off the pace and this might be one of those years when a slow start is overcome.

ADL Championship Pre-event Selections:
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 46.045/1
Robert Macintyre @ 50.049/1

In-Play Pick:
Grant Forrest @ 40.039/1

SF Championship Pre-event Selections:
Lee Hodges @ 48.047/1
Davis Riley (First Round Leader)

In-Play Pick:
Troy Merritt @ 25.024/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
ADLC
2u Nathan Kimsey @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
1u Ross Fisher @ 280.0279/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
SFC
2u Chad Ramey @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
2u Peter Malnati @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter