The Punter's De-brief: Clark regains his composure to win the BMW by three

15:15 - August 24, 2026 - Wyndham Clark wins BMW Championship after Rory trades at odds-on

Wyndham Clark, who was generally a 38.037/1 chance before the off, was trading at around 1.321/3 when he led by five with a round to go at last week's BMW Championship but he opened the door wide for the chasers when he played his first 10 holes of the final round in three-over-par.

Patrick Cantlay, who eventually finished second, beaten by three, played his first 10 holes in two-under-par and he was matched at a low of 3.211/5 but he played his way back out of contention when he found water at the 11^th.

With Clark going backwards, his playing partner, Rory McIlroy, was matched at a low of 1.584/7 after he'd drawn alongside Clark with a birdie at the 11^th but that was as good as it got for the world number two.

Rory played his last seven holes in one-over par (six pars and a bogey at the par five 17^th) and Clark composed himself brilliantly before birdying the last three holes to win by three.

It was his third win of the year, and it was the second time he'd won wire-to-wire having also achieved the feat at the US Open in June.

Over on the DP World Tour, Shaun Norris was matched at a low of 1.75/7 during the third round of the Nexo Championship on Saturday and he was a 2.1411/10 chance when he led by two with a round to go but after a calamitous four-over-par 76, he ended the week in a tie for seventh.

England's Matthew Jordan also went odds-on, trading at a low of 1.695/7, before he double bogeyed the ninth after a bright start on Sunday, but it was the Scottish veteran, Scott Jamieson, that put the event to bed with a great run of holes around the turn.

The 42-year-old, who was generally a 250.0249/1 chance before the off, played five holes in four-under from the seventh and he never looked like losing after that.

Jamieson was winning his first event since he won his only other DP World Tour title at the now defunct Nelson Mandela Championship way back in 2013.

That event was staged over only 36 holes due to extremely wet weather, so this was his first DP World Tour win over the regulation 72 holes.

10:05 - August 23, 2026 - Leader impossible to oppose at the BMW Championship

The halfway leader, Wyndham Clark, started round three of the BMW Championship with a double-bogey six at the opening hole and he ended the day with a bogey five at the 18^th but Dave Tindall's 20/121.00 each-way fancy still leads by five with a round to go, thanks to a remarkable run from the seventh that saw him play the next eight holes in seven-under-par. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back on the Betfair Exchange at 10:00.

Wyndham Clark -17 1.321/3
Rory McIlroy -12 10.09/1
Patrick Cantlay -12 14.527/2
Chris Gotterup -11 30.029/1
Gary Woodland -11 50.049/1
Collin Morikawa -10 80.079/1
-9 and 260.0259/1 bar

Clark is the 34^th player to take a five-stroke lead into the final round of a PGA Tour event this century and he's bidding to become the 29^th to convert.

That's a strike rate of 85% so anyone that doesn't mind backing an odds-on shot is getting a very decent price about the leader.

It's clearly not a big sample size and Clark does have the world number two, Rory McIlroy, alongside him in the final two-ball, but the 1.321/3 available on the Betfair Exchange is more than fair.

19:30 - August 22, 2026 - Low scoring expected in Scotland

There's just one round to go at the Nexo Championship on the DP World Tour where Shaun Norris leads by two after a six-under-par 66 third round around the Trump International Golf Links. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:20.

Shaun Norris -9 2.1411/10
Matthew Jordan -7 3.8514/5
Scott Jamieson -6 11.521/2
Keita Nakajima -4 18.017/1
Mathew Southgate -4 32.031/1
Andy Sullivan -4 42.041/1
-3 and 90.089/1 bar

With the wind dropping away tomorrow, we're going to witness some low scores in round four and that really should favour the leaders.

It's always hard to make up ground when the scoring is low as at least one or two players in the leading pack go low enough to keep their heads in front but we could witness a bit of a surprise tomorrow.

Pre-event 95.094/1 chance, Norris, is the man to beat and he's a tempting proposition at odds-against on the Betfair Exchange.

In the last 10 years, 32 of 65 two-stroke 54-hole leaders (49%) on the DP World Tour have gone on to win, suggesting the experienced South African is priced correctly but the only two men within four strokes of his lead, Matthew Jordan and Scott Jamieson, are far from great in-contention.

I could see Norris kicking on and winning very easily but it's also perfectly possible that the front three, playing together in the final three-ball, all get in each other's way and perform poorly. And if that happens, the event will be blown wide-open.

My halfway pick, Keita Nakajima, is still in with a shout if he can putt a bit better than he has been doing and I haven't given up on my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Adrian Otagui, either.

Otaegui trails by seven in a tie for ninth so he'll need some help and a low score and so too will Andy Sullivan who sits tied for sixth and six back, but I thought he was an interesting runner.

The 39-year-old Englishman has always been a streaky player capable of posting a low round and he could just go low enough to get the job done if the leaders falter.

09:10 - August 22, 2026 - Reigning US Open champ in pole position

Here's the latest state of play at this week's two events, together with prices to back on the Betfair Exchange at 8:50.

Nexo Championship

Matthew Southgate -4 9.417/2
Matthew Jordan -3 7.413/2
Shaun Norris -3 12.523/2
Marcus Kinhult -3 14.013/1
Scott Jamieson -3 19.537/2
Jacob Skov Olesen -2 8.27/1
Keita Nakajima -2 11.010/1
Matteo Manassero -2 20.019/1
Eliot Baker (a) -2 46.045/1
Quim Vidal -2 50.049/1
Benjamin Follett-Smith -2 90.089/1
-1 and 28.027/1 bar

BMW Championship

Wyndham Clark -12 3.211/5
Gary Woodland -11 7.613/2
JJ Spaun -10 10.09/1
Chris Gotterup -9 11.010/1
Sungjae Im -9 18.535/2
Patrick Cantlay -8 18.535/2
Michael Thorbjornsen -8 24.023/1
Rory McIlroy -7 18.535/2
-7 and 40.039/1 bar

The third round of the Nexo Championship is already underway, and the early starters are going to get the worst of the weather according to the forecast.

Early predictions suggested a blustery first three days before a more benign final day on Sunday, but the latest forecasts suggest the wind will start to drop this afternoon and that will favour the leaders.

The only three players trading at less than 10/111.00 in what is a wide-open market are the English pair, Matthew Southgate, who leads by a stroke, and Matthew Jordan, along with the promising 27-year-old Dane, Jacob Skov Olesen, and all three are in search of their first victories on the DP World Tour.

Between them, the two Matthews have played getting on for 500 events without lifting a trophy and although a talent likely to win sooner or later, Olesen is playing in his 55^th DP World Tour event and he too is yet to win.

There is a wealth of talent sitting five strokes and further back but given the forecast, the one I like is Japan's Keita Nakajima, who trails by two.

Nakajima demonstrated his love of links golf when he finished third at the Scottish Open in July and given that he ranks second for Strokes Gained: Tee-to Green and first for Greens In Regulation at halfway, he looks like he's going to be there or thereabouts tomorrow afternoon and I was happy to back him at 11.521/2.

Over at the BMW Championship, which is being staged at Bellerive Country Club, a long par 70 that hosted the US Open back in 1965, three US Open winners fill the first three places at halfway and it's hard to look past the leader, Wyndham Clark, who won the US Open for a second time as recently as June this year.

Clark's tee-to-green game has been exceptional over the first two days and ranking only 14^th for Putting Average and 16^th for Strokes Gained: Putting, there's scope for enough of an improvement on the greens to make him very hard to beat.

Odds in excess of 2/13.00 on the Betfair Exchange are tempting for the frontrunning Clark, who was also tied for the lead after round one, but after back-to-back 64s, he's likely to need to make all the running if he's going to lift another trophy and that's never easy.

He's the only man in the field that's bogey-free after two rounds and he won at Shinnecock wire-to-wire two months ago, so we have a very recent example of him leading all the way, but frontrunning is really tough and the one I like at a much bigger price is the prolific 27-year-old, Chris Gotterup, who's already won three times this year.

Ranking fifth and 21^st in the FedEx Cup standings before the off, Clark and JJ Spaun (currently third) are going to make it into the field at East Lake next week for the Tour Championship but the only other player inside the top seven places and within four of the halfway lead, that doesn't have the distraction of trying to qualify for next week, is Gotterup, who ranks seventh.

Only the top 30 in the standings make it to East Lake so the likes of Woodland (31^st), Sungjae Im (40^th), Michael Thorbjornsen (41^st) and Patrick Cantlay (43^rd), will have one eye on qualification all weekend and that could be enough to distract them.

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