The Punter's In-Play Blog: Scheffler the confident pick with 18 to play

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10:10 - May 24, 2026

There's a round to go at the Soudal Open on the DP World Tour and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson on the PGA Tour so here are the two 54-hole leaderboards with prices to back at 9:55.

Soudal Open
Zander Lombard -18 2.0811/10
M.J Daffue -15 8.415/2
Jacob Skov Olesen -14 9.617/2
Tom Vaillant -14 14.527/2
Ben Schmidt -14 16.015/1
Jorge Campillo -13 25.024/1
Andrew Johnston -13 40.039/1
Richard Sterne -13 55.054/1
Albin Bergstrom -13 65.064/1
Nathan Kimsey -12 40.039/1
Kota Kaneko -9 65.064/1
Renato Paratore -12 140.0139/1
-11 and 120.0119/1 bar

CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Si Woo Kim -21 2.3211/8
Scottie Scheffler -19 2.727/4
Wyndham Clark -19 8.27/1
Sungjae Im -17 38.037/1
Stepan Jaeger -17 44.043/1
Tom Hoge -17 75.074/1
-16 and 150.0149/1 bar

It looked like we were going to have an extremely congested leaderboard to assess with a round to go at the Soudal Open as round three drew to a close but Zander Lombard finished with birdies at the last three holes to open up a three stroke lead and if he starts anything like he did yesterday, when he played his first five holes in four-under-par, he's going to be very hard to catch.

It was a strange third round by the pre-event 430.0429/1 chance given he played holes six to 15 in two-over but he scrambled and putted brilliantly all day, and he looks fairly priced at odds against.

Last year's winner, Kristoffer Reitan, caused an almighty shock when he shot 62 on Sunday to catch Darius Van Driel and the 54 hole leader, Ewen Ferguson, having trailed by nine with 18 to play, but had Ferguson, who was matched at 1.152/13 in-running, parred the 72^nd hole, the event wouldn't have gone to extra time and four of the five previous course winners would have been leading with 18 to play.

The odd man out would have been the 2022 Soudal Open winner, Sam Horsfield, who trailed by just one after 54 holes.

Reitan's remarkable victory shows us that it's possible to come from off the pace but Lombard's had at least a share of the lead after the first three rounds and the stats suggest he's likely to emulate Lee Slattery and Simon Forsstrom, who have both won wire-to wire at Rinkven.

Lombard is the 146^th player to lead a 72-hole event on the DP World Tour in the last 30 years and he's bidding to become the 99^th to convert.

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Stats suggest the leader should be odds-on

That's a strike rate of 68%, suggesting Lombard's a fair price at odds-against but four of the last five men to lead by three through 54 holes have been beaten.

Grant Forrest won last year's Nexo Championship by four, after he'd led by three with 18 to play but Joost Luiten at the BMW International in 2023, Matteo Manassero at the BMW PGA in 2024, Aldrich Potgieter at the Nedbank Challenge in December 2024 and Brandon Robinson-Thompson in Turkey last year, all failed from the front.

Lombard won the six-round Qualifying School Final Stage in Spain in November by 13 strokes, after he'd led by six after four rounds, so there's an example of him winning from the front but the top-20 all qualify there so it's not really comparable with leading an actual event and his record when doing that with 18 to play isn't great.

Since being tied for the lead with 18 to play at the Australian PGA Championship in 2015, he's led or been tied for the lead a further four times on the DP World Tour and he's yet to win, or better 71 on Sunday and I'm happy to swerve him here.

My pre-event pick, Casey Jarvis, was a huge disappointment in round three but my Find Me a Winner pick, Jorge Campillo, is still on the premises so I'll just cheer him on today.

Prior to Lombard's finish, and before he hit a poor drive on 18 that led to a bogey five, it looked like the experienced Spaniard might be the man to beat with 18 to play but he's not out of it yet if the leader treads water.

I toyed with backing Nathan Kimsey, who qualified for the US Open at Walton Heath on Monday, and I may yet to do so, but this looks like a tough event to call, even if Lombard does start to leak oil.

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Kim up by two with to play

Over on the PGA Tour, Si Woo Kim still leads the CJ Cup Byran Nelson but yesterday's in-play pick, Wyndham Clark, and the world number one and defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, have cut his lead from five to two and he looks vulnerable.

The fact that Kim and Scheffler are good friends and that they're pair together again today, as they were in rounds one and two, should help the Korean but I can't let Scheffler go unbacked at a price only fractionally shorter than his starting price of 2.9215/8.

The last four men to lead a PGA Tour event by two strokes with 18 to play have all been beaten and over the last 10 years, 54-hole leaders have only 42% strike rate.

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Scheffler the confident pick

Kim has led or been tied for the lead through three rounds seven times previously on the PGA Tour and although he went on to win the Wyndham Championship in 2016 (led by four) and he won The American Express in 2021, having been tied at the top through 54 holes, he's failed from the front five times and on the last three occasions he's led or been tied he's shot rounds of 73, 74 and 72 to finish fourth, eighth and sixth.

The last occasion was at The American Express in January, where he led by a stroke before being caught and passed by his playing partner, Scheffler, and history could very well repeat here.

This is basically a putting contest and ranking only 27th for Putting Average after three rounds, Scheffler, who ranks first for Greens In Regulation, is the only player in the top six not to rank inside the top five for PA but he still looks a cracking price at anything better than 6/42.50 and I've backed him with confidence this morning.

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08:00 - May 23, 2026

We've reached the halfway stage of the Soudal Open on the DP World Tour and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson on the PGA Tour so here are the two 36-hole leaderboards with prices to back at 7:45.

Soudal Open
Tom Vaillant -13 4.47/2
Zander Lombard -13 7.06/1
Casey Jarvis -10 8.415/2
Jacob Skov Olesen -10 13.012/1
Jorge Campillo -10 17.016/1
Ben Schmidt -10 22.021/1
Richard Sterne -10 42.041/1
Kota Kaneko -9 30.029/1
Andrew Johnston -9 40.039/1
Marcus Kinhult -9 46.045/1
M.J Daffue -9 46.045/1
Romain Langasque -9 50.049/1
Eddie Pepperell -8 32.031/1
-8 and 50.049/1 bar

CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Si Woo Kim -18 1.8810/11
Scottie Scheffler -13 4.3100/30
Sungjae Im -13 30.029/1
Wyndham Clark -13 34.033/1
Jackson Suber -13 80.079/1
Kensei Hirata -13 150.0149/1
Jordan Spieth -12 27.026/1
Keith Mitchell -12 44.043/1
Tony Finau -12 80.079/1
-12 and 80.079/1 bar

I'll start with the event that kicks off first today, the Soudal Open, where Frenchman, Tom Vaillant, is tied for the lead with the first-round leader, Zander Lombard, and the pair are three clear of the remainder.

This is the fifth edition of the Soudal Open in-a-row at Rinkven, and the tree-lined track also staged the Telenet Trophy on the HotelPlanner Tour back in 2010.

And had last year's 36 hole and 54-hole leader, Ewen Ferguson, who was matched at as short as 1.152/13 in-running, not bogeyed the 72^nd hole, all five course winners would have been in front at halfway.

Lee Slattery won the Telenet wire-to-wire, as did the 2023 winner of this event, Simon Forsstrom. The 2022 winner, Sam Horsfield, was tied for the lead at halfway, and the 2024 champ, Nacho Elvira, was leading by a stroke.

Given four of the five course winners have been in front with two rounds to go and that Ferguson really should have made it five from five, it really does look like a tough place to make up ground but last year's winner, Kristoffer Reitan, certainly managed it.

The Norwegian, who won the Truist Championship on the PGA Tour a couple of weeks ago, trailed by six at halfway and he was nine back after round three!

Those stats suggest that one of the front two should go on to win but I'm not keen on either.

Vaillant, who was a well-backed 110.0109/1 chance before the off, has won a couple events on the Alps Tour and the in-running course stats are in his favour, but he looks opposable.

He was tied for the lead with a round to go when he won the 54-hole Aravell Open on the Alps Tour back in 2022 but on the three occasions he's led a 72-hole event after two rounds, it hasn't ended well.

He finished third on the Sunshine Tour, beaten by two, having led the Nelson Mandela Bay Championship by three at halfway after rounds of 73 and 71 over the weekend in 2023, and that's his best effort to date.

He was tied for the lead at the HotelPlanner Tour Grand Final at the end of 2023 but was beaten by six after rounds of 73 and 74 and he finished 50^th at the Genesis Championship on the DP World Tour last year, having been tied for the lead at halfway after weekend rounds of 75 and 73.

Alongside the Frenchman is the pre-event 430.0429/1 chance, Zander Lombard, and he's even harder to fancy.

This is his 254^th start on the DP World Tour and he's still in search of his first win and on the three occasions that he's led or been tied for the lead at halfway, he's performed poorly.

He finished fifth at next week's event, the Austrian Open, 10 years ago, having been tied for the lead at this stage, ninth at the 2019 Irish Open, having led by a stroke after 36 holes, and he finished eighth, beaten by sixth, at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in 2019, having led by two at the midway point.

Those three failed attempts to convert from the front were a long time ago and at 31, he has a wealth of experience now. One could argue that he's better equipped to cope with the pressure now but I'm more than happy to leave him alone.

Having backed the current third favourite, Casey Jarvis, before the off, and with my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Jorge Campillo, alongside Jarvis and just three off the lead, I've got a couple of live chances heading into the weekend, but I've still added one more.

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Premlall backed to double up

It's never easy to win back-to-back events but so far this season we've seen two South Africans achieve the feat - Jayden Schaper in South Africa and Mauritius just before Christmas, and Jarvis in Kenya and South Africa at the end of February - and I'm happy to take a big price about fellow South African, Yurav Premlall, emulating them here.

The 22-year-old trails Vaillant and Lombard by seven strokes but anyone that witnessed his stunning 14-stroke victory at the Catalunya Championship last time out, when he shot back-to-back 63s over the weekend, knows he's capable of remarkable things and as someone that couldn't quite belief what I was seeing in Spain, I was  happy to chance him here at 55.054/1.

Premlall's margin of victory was the largest in a non-major in DP World Tour history, with Tiger Woods' infamous 15 stroke win at the 2000 US Open the only performance to beat it.

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Kim five clear in Texas

Over at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, pre-event 16/117.00 shot, Si Woo Kim, bids to emulate last year's victor, Scottie Scheffler, who was also miles in front at halfway, and it looks like a clear halfway lead is necessary looking back at previous events here.

Despite the fact that low scoring affairs like this tend to suit frontrunners, prior to Scheffler's wire-wire cakewalk last year, nine men had led or been tied for the lead at TPC Craig Ranch and they all failed to kick on and win.

The two winners on the Korn Ferry Tour here, in 2008 and 2012, and the other four winners of this event since 2021, have all been inside the top eight places at halfway but they've trailed the lead by between two and five strokes.

Over the last 30 years on the PGA Tour, five-stroke 36-hole leaders have a healthy 63.6% strike rate and the last man to convert, Cam Young at the start of the month in the Cadillac Championship at Doral, went on to win by six, but five of the previous six to lead by five at halfway were beaten. And the only one of the six to win was Akshay Bhatia at the 2024 Texas Open and that event went to a playoff.

Given Young was a 1.625/8 chance at Doral and that the world number one was trading at just 1.111/9 with two rounds to play last year when he led by six, Kim looks a very fair price at 1.8810/11 on the Betfair Exchange, but I'm not convinced.

This is the third time Kim has held a clear 36-hole lead on the PGA Tour and he's bidding to win for the second time.

The 30-year-old Korean, who finished tied for second behind Jason Day here in 2023, won his first PGA Tour title at the Wyndham Championship 10 years ago, having led by two at halfway but he finished fourth here in Texas, at the 2019 Texas Open, beaten by five strokes, having led by four at halfway.

With as many as five players tied for second, one of which is the defending champ and world number one, Kim is going to need to keep the peddle down over the weekend and I'm happy to leave him alone at odds-on.

Scoring should continue to be super low on 'moving day' after overnight and early morning rain but with thundery weather in the forecast, there's a chance the third round won't get finished today and that may help the chasers.

Scheffler is the very obvious danger to Kim and he's fair price at 4.3100/30 given he was a 2.962/1 chance before the off but the one I like at a much bigger price is the 2023 US Open winner, Wyndham Clark.

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Clark chanced at halfway

It's now more than two years since Clark won the third of his three PGA Tour titles but sitting alongside Scheffler in the group of five tied for second, the 32-year-old looks a fair price at anything over 30.029/1.

The leader and fellow Korean, Sungjae Im, who sits tied second, are filling the top two places on the Putting Average stats at halfway but Clark ranks seventh and that certainly compares favourably with Scheffler, who ranks 65^th.

There's every chance that Scheffler, who ranks as high as 11^th for Strokes Gained Putting at halfway, holes a few more putts over the weekend to make up the ground required but in a tricky event to assess, a small wager on Wyndham at a juicy price was as far as I wanted to go at this stage.

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