The Punter's In-Play Blog: Cole chanced to get off the mark

• Theegala leads by two at Silverado

• Resurgent Thomas back in-the-mix

• Hattrick seeking Homa suffers back nine setback

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12:15- September 17, 2023

The defending champion, Max Homa, who's looking to win the Fortinet Championship for a third year in-a-row, was matched at just 2.26/5 when he hit the front yesterday after he'd birdied five of his first seven holes, but he lost his way badly after that, playing his last 11 in three-over-par.

In complete contrast, Cam Davis birdied five of the last six to pull alongside S.H Kim and Justin Thomas on -15 but it's Sahith Theegala that shows the way with a round to go after a bogey-free five-under 67. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 12:05.

Sahith Theegala -17 2.588/5
Justin Thomas -15 5.14/1
Cam Davis -15 5.69/2
S.H Kim -15 11.010/1
Eric Cole -14 14.013/1
Matt Kuchar -14 17.016/1
-12 and 110109/1 bar

This is an excellent chance for California-born Theegala to get off the mark but he looks fractionally short at around the 6/42.50 mark.

Although four strokes back is the furthest any winner has trailed by at this venue, only two of the nine editions staged at Silverado have been won by the 54-hole leader or co-leader and Theegala is zero from two when leading with a round to go on the PGA Tour.

He led the Sanderson Farms Championship by a stroke in 2021 and the Phoenix Open by one last year but finished eighth and third.

He will have learnt from both experiences, as well as his late hiccup at the Travelers Championship last year, when he double bogeyed the 72nd hole after trading at long odds-on, and it's only a matter of time before he bags his first title but I'm more than happy to swerve him at a short price.

It's extremely likely that one of the top-six takes the title and the one I like is Eric Cole, who like Theegala is a Californian looking to win his first title.

Californians have a very strong record in this event and Cole looks a fair price at 14.013/1 given he won't have the pressure that Theegala will have with the lead and that he's no bigger than 11/112.00 on the High Street.

07:35- September 17, 2023

After Friday's foggy start and a farcical finish, the third round of the BMW PGA Championship ran smoothly but with wet and stormy weather forecasted, today's fourth and final round has been brought forward and a Monday finish can't be ruled out.

In attempt to beat the weather, the leaders will tee-off as early as 10:30 so here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:25.

Ludvig Aberg -16 2.6413/8
Tommy Fleetwood -14 5.49/2
Connor Syme -14 12.523/2
Aaron Rai -13 15.014/1
Ryan Fox -13 16.015/1
Callum Shinkwin -13 38.037/1
Jon Rahm -12 11.521/2
Tyrrell Hatton -11 34.033/1
Sepp Straka -11 55.054/1
Nathan Kimsey -11 150.0149/1
Marcus Helligkilde -11 150.0149/1
Viktor Hovland -10 44.043/1
Tom Kim -10 90.089/1
Billy Horschel -10 120.0119/1
Thomas Detry -10 180.0179/1
Rikuya Hoshino -10 410.0409/1
-9 and 210.0209/1 bar

Aberg look a perfectly fair price at around 13/82.63 on the Betfair Exchange and four of the last eight winners were in front or tied for the lead with a round to go but there are enough reasons to swerve the talented Swede.

Playing Wentworth for the first time and looking to win back-to-back events after his victory at Crans two weeks ago, the 23-year-old is leading with a round to go for the first time in his fledgling career.

He looks the real deal, and he looks like he'll go on to win many a title and maybe even majors but I'm happy to swerve him given the circumstances, and given we've seen all sorts of drama from off the pace here recently.

Although as many as four of the last eight winners have been leading here with a round to go, three of the four were the least likely of the tied leaders to win and the favourite before the final round has been beaten in eight of the last nine years.

We've seen some quite remarkable off-the-pace winners here over the years and playing one or two chasers at a huge price may pay dividends.

Alex Noren was matched at 220.0219/1 on Sunday morning six years ago, as he sat outside the top-20 with a round to go, and that's as far off the lead as any winner has been at Wentworth through 54 holes since 1990 but he was the third winner in eight years to trail by seven strokes with a round to go!

Simon Khan sat tied for 13th and seven back before his win in 2010 and Rory McIlroy trailed Thomas Bjorn by seven in 2014. In addition to that trio, we've seen victories from three, four and five strokes back with a round to go and Jon Rahm almost pulled off a miraculous victory 12 months ago too.

Having been a 300.0299/1 chance before the third and final round of last year's weather-shortened renewal, Rahm was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running as he played his first eight holes of round three in just one-under-par but after a birdie at the tough ninth, he flew home in 29, despite bogeying the 15th, to post a ten-under-par 62.

Like Rahm last year, the runner-up, Rikard Karlberg, began the final day fully eight strokes adrift of the third-round leader, Scott Hend, in 2016 and he too was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running.

Both men lost by a stroke and both were matched at single-figure prices. Karlberg was matched at just 7.87/1 and Rahm hit a low of 5.24/1 so this has been a wonderful event to trade longshots in-running on the final day. I've picked out two.

Viktor Hovland led through rounds one and two 12 months ago before a disappointing final round of 70 saw him slip to fifth but the boot is on the other foot this year and he's won several times from way off the pace previously.

He's won the Hero World Challenge and the Dubai Desert Challenge from six back on a Sunday and less than a month ago he shot 61 in round four to win the BMW Championship by two, having trailed by three with a round to go.

I've backed him at 44.043/1 and I've had an even more speculative punt on Rasmus Hojgaard at odds in excess of 500.0499/1.

The Dane has won four times on the DP World Tour previously and trailing by seven won't faze him.

Hojgaard was five adrift with a round to go when he won the UK Championship in 2020, four back when he won at Crans two years ago, and as many as six adrift in July when he won the Made in HimmerLand in his homeland.

Both men need help from the leaders, but history tells us that they're not out of it yet and Aberg will know full well that two strokes is not a huge advantage. That's as many clear as Matt Fitzpatrick was a fortnight ago in Crans before the Swede caught and passed him in round four.

Away from the main market, Tommy Fleetwood may be worth taking on in the Top 5 Finish Market given he only has a 71% strike rate of finishing in the top-five when he's begun the final round inside the top-three and that he finished sixth in 2015 and 13th in 2020 here having sat fourth through three rounds here.

He also finished 57th last year after leading through the first round. This is a title he desperately wants so if the chance of vitory goes, he won't really care what place he finishes and odds of around 1.42/5 look short.

10:15- September 16, 2023

After a foggy start and a farcical finish, the first-round leader, Marcus Helligkilde, was one of 27 players that needed to return to the course this morning to finish up the second round at the BMW PGA Championship.

After the start was delayed due to thick fog on Friday morning, Thomas Bjorn had an argument with a drunkard as he played the 18th, Robert MacIntyre was heckled by someone who'd bet against him, and Rory McIlroy, who only made the cut after a birdie on 18 in the dark, bemoaned the fact that his round took five and half hours to complete, so it wasn't the flagship event's finest hour but all that will be forgotten over the weekend.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:05.

Ludvig Aberg -10 5.85/1
Sebastian Soderberg -10 25.024/1
Tommy Fleetwood -9 6.86/1
Adrian Meronk -9 14.013/1
Thomas Detry -9 16.531/2
Masahiro Kawamura -9 46.045/1
Sepp Straka -8 19.018/1
Aaron Rai -8 19.018/1
Marcus Helligkilde -8 60.059/1
Tyrrell Hatton -7 17.533/2
Tom Kim -7 21.020/1
Ryan Fox -7 40.039/1
Jorge Campillo -7 100.099/1
Connor Syme -7 80.079/1
Matthew Baldwin -7 180.0179/1
Jon Rahm -6 16.015/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -6 34.033/1
Min Woo Lee -6 42.041/1
Billy Horschel -6 55.054/1
-6 and 120.0119/1 bar

As highlighted in the preview, form at Crans tends to correlate brilliantly at Wentworth and at the halfway stage of the BMW Championship, two Swedes who have both won the Omega European Masters are tied at the top - this year's impressive young champion, Ludvig Aberg, and the 2019 winner, Sebastian Soderberg - and it's the 23-year-old, Aberg, that heads the market.

Ludvig Åberg magic at Wentworth#BMWPGA | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/q99Iac70P1

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 15, 2023

Danny Willett was tied for the lead through 36 holes when he won here in 2019 but he's the only second round leader or co-leader to go on to win since Luke Donald won wire-to-wire 12 years ago to reach the top of the Official World Rankings.

Add in the fact that the leaderboard is crammed full of the world's best players and odds of less than 5/16.00 about Aberg start to look a little skinny.

Tied for third and just one off the lead, England's Tommy Fleetwood is the only other player trading at a single-figure price at halfway and I'm more than happy to swerve him too, although he could be just the sort of player to side with tomorrow...

Fleetwood is a much better betting proposition when trailing with a round to go and we've seen plenty of off the pace winners here over the years. Should he have a disappointing day today, he'll be on my radar tomorrow.

As suspected, despite double-bogeying the second hole yesterday, my pre-event pick, Tom Kim, has taken to Wentworth and if I wasn't already onboard, I'd be siding with him at 20/121.00 given he trails by only three but I've added one more to the mix anyway.

Adrian Meronk was my pick at the Irish Open last week after he was unlucky to miss out on Ryder Cup selection and it's nice to see him contending again here.

Trailing by a stroke and no bigger than 11/112.00 on the High Street, I thought the Pole looked over-priced at 14.013/1.

Over on the PGA Tour, the Fortinet Championship has been set up brilliantly with the well-backed pre-event 18.017/1 chance, Sahith Theegala, tied at the top with 120.0119/1 chance, S.H Kim. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:10.

Sahith Theegala -12 3.613/5
S.H Kim -12 7.06/1
Sangmoon Bae -11 32.031/1
Eric Cole -10 10.519/2
Kelly Kraft -9 80.079/1
Max Homa -8 9.417/2
Justin Thomas -8 16.531/2
Cam Davis -8 19.537/2
Sam Ryder -8 38.037/1
Justin Lower -8 80.079/1
-7 and 70.069/1 bar

My pre-event pick, Kevin Streelman, dropped away yesterday after a bright start but there are some great storylines developing as we head into the weekend in California.

The two frontrunners are both in search of their first PGA Tour titles, the man in third is looking to win the title for a second time, having done his military service in Korea in-between. Eric Cole is looking to sign off a brilliant rookie season with a win, Max Homa is in-the-mix as he bids to win the event for a third year in-a-row and with the Ryder Cup now less than a fortnight away, Justin Thomas, a contentious captain's pick for Team USA, is lurking menacingly.

We probably shouldn't get too fixated by the leaderboard though. The 2020 and 2021 winners, Stewart Cink and Homa, trailed by eight and seven strokes respectively at halfway, the 2015 winner, Emiliano Grillo, and the man he beat in a playoff, Kevin Na, both trailed by six at this stage and the 2016 winner, Brendan Steele, was nine back at halfway!

With that in mind, I've backed a couple of huge outsiders playing in their home state - Martin Trainer, who trails by five in a tie for 11th, and James Hahn, who's a further stroke back in a tie for 18th.

09:30- September 15, 2023

A foggy morning has delayed the start of day two at the BMW PGA Championship, where Denmark's Marcus Helligkilde leads after a stunning eight-under-par 64 in round one.

As highlighted in the preview, first round leaders don't have a great record at Wentworth and many a winner has started slowly, which is good news for Rory McIlroy who trails by eight after a disappointing opening 72.

Matt Fitzpatrick, who's in action for the first time since he failed to rack up a hattrick of wins at Crans two weeks ago, having traded at a low of just 1.081/12, sits tied for second alongside another Crans winner, Richie Ramsay, and he's now the man to beat according to the market.

Fitzpatrick starts his second round within the hour and it will be interesting to see if he kicks on but my early in-running play is the prolific Spaniard, Pablo Larrazabal, who enjoys a tree-lined test.

In search of his 10th DP World Tour victory, his third this year and his fifth in 20 months, I thought he was fractionally over-priced at 75.074/1.

Over on the PGA Tour, Australia's Lucas Herbert has begun the Fortinet Championship with a nine-under-par 63 to lead S.H Kim by two and the remainder by three.

On the last occasion that Herbert ended the first round in front, at the Irish Open in 2021, he won wire-to-wire by three strokes and if he were to kick on and win again this week, he'd be the third first round leader to convert in ten years at Silverado.

Odds of around 4/15.00 look fair enough but I'm happy to sit on my hands there for now and see where we are at halfway.

BMW PGA Championship Pre-event Selection:
Tom Kim @ 30.029/1

In-Play Pick:
Pablo Larrazabal @ 75.074/1

Fortinet Championship Pre-event Selection:
Kevin Streelman @ 80.079/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:

BMW PGA Championship

2u Guido Migliozzi @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
1.5u Thriston Lawrence @ 210.0209/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
1u Grant Forrest @ 310.0309/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

Fortinet Championship

1.5u each-way Martin Laird @ 125/1126.00 (Sportsbook)
1u Troy Merritt @ 300.0299/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

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