The Punter's De-brief: Aberg stuns Fitzpatrick at Crans

• Long odds-on backers stung again in Switzerland

• Italian to stick with now he's fallen short

• Read my Irish Open preview here

In search of his third victory at Crans, the 10.09/1 pre-event favourite, Matthew Fitzpatrick, led the Omega European Masters through rounds one two and three and after he'd found the fairway on the par five 15^th with a two-stroke lead on Sunday, the Englishman was matched at a low of just 1.081/12.

His playing partner and closest challenger, Connor Syme, had driven into a water hazard and one of the two men within three of Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Aberg, had missed his eagle putt on 15 and left himself work for the birdie four.

It looked highly likely that the world number eight was going to emulate the late great Seve Ballesteros and rack up the hattrick, but everything changed in the matter of seconds.

At almost the exact time that Aberg made this birdie putt at the par three 16^th (his third in-a-row), Fitzpatrick hit the clumsiest of chips on the 15^th.

Ludvig knew this birdie was good #OEM2023 pic.twitter.com/FLZ3dIEBcA

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 3, 2023

After leaving his approach a few feet short of the green, Fitzpatrick had been odds-on to birdie the 15^th hole but instead of chipping on to set up a putt for a four, his chip ran through into the greenside bunker and having short sided himself, he failed to get it up-and-down for par. Suddenly, we had a tie at the top and the momentum was with the 23-year-old Swede.

Clearly ruffled, Fitzpatrick hit a terrible tee shot on the par three 16^th, immediately chuntering that someone had disturbed him by rustling change in their pocket, and just minutes later his fate was sealed when Aberg stiffed his approach on the par four 17^th to inside two feet.

The Swede tapped in for a birdie three as Fitzpatrick bogeyed the 16^th and it was game over.

With Aberg parring the last, Fitzpatrick could have caught the Swede with back-to-back birdies at the last two holes, but it wasn't to be. He missed his 15-footer for a three at 17 before making a bogey at the last.

Aberg had been a well-fancied 22.021/1 chance before the off and having been on the premises throughout, the highest he traded at throughout the week was 34.033/1.

Another long odds-on shot falls short

What had looked highly likely to be a facile third victory at Crans for Fitzy, turned into a disappointing tied third and for the second time in three years we'd witnessed someone trade at a ridiculously short price before getting beat.

Matt Wallace hit a low of 1.84/5 last year before losing a playoff and Bernd Wiesberger was matched at just 1.121/8 in 2021 so it's a place to take on odds-on shots in-running if recent history is to be believed.

Changes to Crans may see scores rise

Alberg's winning total of 19-under-par was the lowest winning score in ten years but the course played soft this year and that was a big help.

Changes were made to the Severiano Ballesteros Course before the off (detailed here) and further alterations are in the pipeline so scoring may not be so easy next year and that can only help the better players.

The rollcall of winners includes major winners Matthew Fitzpatrick, Danny Willett, Nick Faldo, Seve, Jose Maria Olazabal, Ian Woosnam and Ernie Els, and we may well have seen a future major champion taking the title this year.

Italian worth following now the pressure's off

I'd written in the Find Me a 100 Winner column that "I'd always felt that Guido Migliozzi could take to this track" and he certainly showed an aptitude for the venue this year, despite only finishing tied for 13^th.

The Italian shot the best round of the day on Friday - a nine-under-par 61 which included birdies at the last five holes - and he signed off the event by bettering that remarkable finish by playing the last five holes in six-under-par!

He's one for the shortlist next year and he's also one to follow now. Migliozzi, who's a three-time winner on the DP World Tour, would have been desperate to be included in Luke Donald's Ryder Cup team in Rome and the pressure of trying to make the team has probably affected his game for some time.

With Luke announcing his wildcard picks at 14:00 today, that pressure is now over, and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see Migliozzi's performances improve.

He tends to go off at a triple-figure price, despite being fairly prolific, so throwing a few pounds in his direction over the next few weeks isn't going to be too costly and it may well pay dividends.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter