The Punter's In-Play Blog: Lowry leads again with 18 to play

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11:10 - March 1, 2026

Having trailed by eight strokes after round one and by six at halfway, course specialist, Shane Lowry, has hit the front at the Cognizant Classic with 18 holes to play and having been matched at as high as 50.049/1, the pre-event 20.019/1 chance, is now the 6/42.50 favourite. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:00.

Shane Lowry -13 2.546/4
Austin Smotherman -13 5.39/2
Nico Echavaria -12 5.95/1
Taylor Moore -12 9.08/1
Jimmy Stanger -11 34.033/1
Ricky Castillo -10 24.023/1
A. J Ewart -10 44.043/1
Joel Dahmen -9 65.064/1
Keith Mitchell -8 85.084/1
-8 and 180.0179/1 bar

Last year's winner, Joe Highsmith, was sitting tied for eighth, four off the lead, and he was trading at 100.099/1 with 18 to play and Daniel Berger lost a playoff here 11 years ago, having sat tied for 12^th and nine off the lead with a round to go, so we certainly can't rule out an off the pace winner but over the years, PGA National has generally been a tough place to make up ground on a Sunday.

Padraig Harrington had sat tied for second before he beat Berger in extra time in 2015 and other than Highsmith, the only winner not to be sitting first or second after 54 holes in the last 11 years is Sungjae Im, in 2020, who sat tied for fifth and three off the lead.

Berger lost a five-stroke 54-hole lead here four years ago (shot 74 in round four to finish fourth) but three of the last five winners were leading or tied for the lead and the five winners between 2008 and 2012 were also in front with a round to go.

Lowry, who prior to this week had course form figures reading 53-49-21-36-2-5-4-11, is clearly the man to beat but he makes no appeal at just 6/42.50.

Since converting a six stroke 54 hole lead in the Open in 2019, Lowry has been tied for the lead four times with a round to go and he's failed to convert every time.

He shot 76 in the 2023 Abu Dhabi Championship to finish 28^th, beaten by nine, a 71 on Sunday here two years ago saw him slip to fourth, beaten by four, and he was beaten by six after a 72 in round four the following week at next week's event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He was also tied for the lead with 18 to play at the Truist Championship last year but finished second, beaten by two, after he again failed to break 70 on Sunday.

Although he started nervously, the three-stroke halfway leader, Austin Smotherman, birdied the last two holes in round three to end the day tied for the lead with Lowry but he'll need to start better today if he's to win his first PGA Tour title.

Trailing by just a stroke, both yesterday's halfway selections are in with every chance but I have thrown a few pounds at one more with a round to go.

As highlighted in the preview, Sony Open winners, Mark Wilson, Ernie Els, Russell Henley, and Justin Thomas have all won this event at PGA National so I was more than happy to chance the 2018 Sony winner, Patton Kizzire.

Kizzire matched Lowry's eight-under-par 63 yesterday but he still sits tied for ninth and five off the lead, so he's still got plenty to do.

He'll need some help from the leaders but odds of 300.0299/1 are too big to ignore given he's a three-time winner on the PGA Tour.

Kizzire turns 40 on Tuesday so a fourth title would be a nice little birthday present.

08:20 - March 1, 2026

There's just 18 holes to play at both this week's events and I'll be back shortly with a look at the Cognizant Classic but before I do, here's the state of play at the South African Open where the leaders tee off shortly.

Casey Jarvis -11 2.829/5
Hennie Du Plessis -10 3.814/5
Francesco Laporta -10 5.49/2
Calum Hill -8 15.014/1
Nathan Kimsey -7 38.037/1
Kieron Van Wyk -7 70.069/1
Xander Basson -7 160.0159/1
Angel Ayora -6 38.037/1
Dean Burmester -6 42.041/1
Brandon Grace -6 60.059/1
-6 and 100.099/1 bar

All the contenders with a round to go were in the thick of the action last week in Kenya and its last week's winner, Casey Jarvis, that quite rightly heads the market.

Having been a bit shaky in-contention previously, Jarvis was brilliant last Sunday, and he may well emulate his fellow countryman, Jayden Schapher, who won back-to-back events just before Christmas.

Given the leader is four clear of the trio tied for fifth, it's highly likely that the winner will come from one of the front four but two of the three tournaments held here previously went the way of an off the pace winner.

Thriston Lawrence won the 54-hole Vodacom Origins event here in 2019, having sat eighth and six off the lead, and David Frost won this event in 1999 having sat eighth and four back.

With that in mind, I've thrown a few pounds at three chasers at big odds, Frederic Lacroix, Daniel Van Tonder and Joe Dean, who are all tied for eighth and five off the lead.

All three are trading at triple figure prices this morning.

08:00 - February 28, 2026

Despite playing his last six holes of round two in one-over-par, pre-event 250.0249/1 chance, Austin Smotherman, leads the Cognizant Classic by three heading into the weekend. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 7:50.

Austin Smotherman -11 3.412/5
Taylor Moore -8 10.519/2
Nico Echavaria -7 10.519/2
A. J Ewart -7 23.022/1
Joel Dahmen -6 22.021/1
Shane Lowry -5 12.011/1
Aaron Rai -5 23.022/1
Kristoffer Reitan -5 24.023/1
Mark Hubbard -5 55.054/1
Hank Lebioda -5 100.099/1
Pontus Nyholm -5 130.0129/1
Jimmy Stanger -5 160.0159/1
Daniel Berger -4 36.035/1
Michael Brennan -4 44.043/1
-4 and 70.069/1 bar

Last year's Cognizant Classic winner, Joe Highsmith, was matched in-running at 1000.0999/1 and he needed to hole a four-and-a-half-foot par putt on the 18^th on Friday just to make the cut.

He was the first winner on the PGA Tour to make the cut on the number since Brandt Snedeker had won the Farmers Insurance Open in appalling conditions at Torrey Pines back in 2016.

He was helped by the leaders all stuttering on Sunday but even so, it was a remarkable comeback given he'd trailed by eight at halfway. He shot back-to-back 64s over the weekend to win by two but it does look like a freak result given prior to last year, history had suggested that you need to be up with the pace at PGA National.

Prior to last year, the 2020 winner, Sungjae Im, had been the only winner of the event in the previous 18 editions to be outside the top seven places at halfway and he'd only sat ninth. 

Ernie Els, in 2008, and Sepp Straka in 2022, both sat sixth and five off the lead at halfway but every other event winner here had been within three strokes of the lead after 36 holes. 

The obvious place to start is with the leader, Smotherman, who won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last year to gain his second promotion to the PGA Tour.

All three of Smotherman's KFT victories have occurred when he's led at halfway so we can't really pick holes in his in-contention record, but this is a much bigger stage, and the stats suggest he's opposable at the price.

Over the last 10 years, three-stroke 36-hole leaders on the PGA Tour have a 34% strike-rate but only one of the previous 11 players to hold a clear lead at PGA National, major winner, Padraig Harrington, in 2015, went on to win, and he lost the lead in round three.

With past results here telling us it's tough to convert a halfway lead but that the majority of course winners are within just three of the lead at halfway, I've backed both Taylor Moore and Nico Echavaria.

Moore won the Valspar Championship back in 2023 and Echavarria has won twice on the PGA Tour, in Puerto Rico and Japan, so they both know what it takes to get the job done at this level.

If forced to just pick one, it would have been Moore as Echavarria's play was a bit scruffy yesterday.

After being matched at as short as 3.814/5, the Colombian bogeyed his last two holes in round two so it's hard to know how he'll perform today.

It may transpire that his opening round of 63 was a one off this week (shot 72 yesterday) but he's more than capable of bouncing back today in more benign conditions.

With the threat of inclement weather later in the day, the tee-times have been moved forward today and the final three-ball goes out as early as 14:40 in the UK.

17:50 - February 27, 2026

The second round of the Cognizant Classic is underway on the PGA Tour, and I'll take a look at that one in the morning, but for now I'm going to concentrate on this week's DP World Tour event - the South African Open - where they have just reached the midway point.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17:40.

Francesco Laporta -10 4.216/5
Nathan Kimsey -9 5.95/1
Dean Burmester -8 5.79/2
Hennie Du Plessis -7 9.08/1
Joe Dean -7 28.027/1
Herman Loubser -7 70.069/1
Alejandro Del Rey -6 34.033/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -6 40.039/1
Rikuya Hoshino -6 44.043/1
Branden Grace -5 24.023/1
Casey Jarvis -5 28.027/1
Adrian Otaegui -5 110.0109/1
-4 and 50.049/1 bar

Having been a regular on the Sunshine Tour between 2013 and 2016, Italy's Francesco Laporta is clearly comfortable playing in South Africa and he's the one they all need to catch at the midway point.

The 35-year-old won the HotelPlanner Tour Grand Final wire-to-wire in 2019 but on the four other occasions he's led at halfway, between 2013 and 2023, he's finished fourth. 22^nd, 17^th and fifth.

We have barely anything to go on, and the course has been changed since the last time it was used, but as highlighted in the preview, two of the three course winners came form slightly off the pace with 18 to play so I'm happy to swerve the leader at a shade over 3/14.00.

Nathan Kimsey is a big danger in second and it's great to see him playing well now injury-free.

Like the leader, and South Africa's Hennie Du Plessis, who trails by only three, Kimsey was in the thick of it in Kenya last week but the one I like at halfway wasn't in the line-up last week.

After his sixth placed finish in the LIV Golf Adelaide event, Dean Burmester took last week off to acclimatise back in his homeland and he's the one to beat with 36 holes to play.

The home contingent has dominated this event of late, winning the last seven editions, and trailing by just two, Burmester looks nicely priced to make it eight in-a-row.

Generally a 24.023/1 chance before the off, the 2023 winner has a strong chance of doubling up and odds of around 9/25.50 are very fair given he's no bigger than 4/15.00 on the High Street.

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