Cognizant Classic: Valimaki the sole selection at 69/1

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Greens in Regulation the key stats

• Decent event for longshots

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What happened last week? Bridgeman and Jarvis off the mark

It's the norm to see at least two players trade at odds-on during any given golf event on either the DP World or PGA Tour so last week was unusual given both tournament winners were the only players to dip below even money on the Betfair Exchange.

Having been tied for the lead with Frenchman, Frederic Lacroix, at the halfway stage of the Kenya Open, Pre-event 36.035/1 chance, Casey Jarvis, was the 4.94/1 favourite at halfway but he was headed in the market with 18 to play when tied for the lead with pre-event 14/115.00 chance, Angel Ayora.

The hugely promising 21-year-old Spaniard was trading at 2.915/8, with Jarvis a 4.3100/30 shot but it soon became apparent that the threat to Jarvis was going to come from elsewhere.

Ayora fell away as tamely as Lacroix had done the day before and after he'd double-bogeyed the fourth hole he was never a factor.

With stormy weather predicted for the second day in-a-row, play had started early at Karen Country Club and lightening stopped play twice before Jarvis eventually won by three over Davis Bryant after a birdie-eagle finish following the second stoppage.

I was dismissive of the 22-year-old's chances during the event on account of a couple of very poor performances in-contention, but the penny dropped in emphatic fashion and the way he closed out the event was extremely impressive.

Rory McIlroy's price dipped to a low of 2.35/4 during the third round of the Genesis Invitational but the gap between him and pre-event 140.0139/1 chance, Jacob Bridgeman, stretched to six strokes by the close of play and Bridgeman headed into the final round trading at just 1.241/4 to win.

Birdies at the first and third gave the 26-year-old the cushion he needed as he played the remaining 15 holes without picking up another, playing them in three-over-par to win by just one.

Bridgman had come into the event with 2026 form figures reading an impressive 4-13-18-8 but second in this event 12 months ago had been the closest he'd come to winning on the PGA Tour previously and it had been 21 years since the last course debutant (Adam Scott) had won at Riviera. And that edition had been reduced to just 36 holes due to poor weather.

Most Riviera winners have had plenty of course experience so although he was in decent form, his victory still went against the grain somewhat.

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Cognizant Classic Tournament History

First staged in 1972 and originally known as the Jackie Gleason Inverrary Classic, the Cognizant Classic or the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches to give it it's full name, was sponsored by Honda and known as the Honda Classic between 1982 and 2023. 

The tournament switched to its current venue 19 years ago when Mark Wilson won a four-man playoff after the event had run into a Monday finish.

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Venue

PGA National Champion Course, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

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Course Details

Par 71, 7,167 yards
Stroke index in 2025 - 69.26

The Tom and George Fazio-designed PGA National was extensively reworked by Jack Nicklaus in 1990, it was again tweaked in 2014, and there were significant changes prior to the off two years ago when the previously tough par four 10^th was changed into a par five.

In addition to the par change on the 10^th, a reduction in the length of the rough, from three inches to two and a quarter, and the largely benign conditions, resulted in the course playing easier than it had for many a year.

Having changed form a 508 yard par four to a 530 yard par five, the 10^th was the easiest hole on the course in 2024, averaging just 4.23, and after 20 yards were added to the hole before last year's addition, it was the second easiest hole on the course in 2025, averaging 4.41.

The overseeded rough was cut to just two and a quarter inches again last year and the profile of the tournament is changing.

A once ultra-tough track is now quite scorable if the wind doesn't blow, as demonstrated in round one last year when Jake Knapp opened the event with a 12-under-par 59.

12 birdies on the scorecard @KnappTime_LTD records the 15th sub-60 round in PGA TOUR history. pic.twitter.com/ZBXFVdL3AU

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 27, 2025

Following Joe Highsmith's victory in 19-under-par, the last five winners have all reached double-digits under-par and that's quite a sea change.

In the 19 years that the event's been staged here the winner has only reached 10-under-par or better eight times and on four of those eight occasions, the winner was the only player to reach double-digits under-par

It's a heavily bunkered course and water is in-play on 13 holes. As most courses are in Florida, PGA National is laid to Bermuda and the greens, which are largely than the average, usually run at around 12 on the stimpmeter.

The PGA National is famous for its intimidating finish which includes the three-hole stretch at 15, 16 and 17, known as the Bear Trap.

The par three 17^th was the hardest par three on the PGA Tour in 2018, averaging more than half a stroke over par at 3.533, but it played much easier in 2019 (3.09) after the addition of a new tee-box, positioned 15 yards nearer to the putting surface, and it averaged only 2.97 last year.

It's still a tough finish though and it's a difficult course all round if the wind blows.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 11:45 on Thursday.

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2025 - Joe Highsmith -19 130.0129/1
2024 - Austin Eckroat -17 220.0219/1
2023 - Chris Kirk -14 44.043/1 (playoff)
2022 - Sepp Straka -10 200.0199/1
2021 - Matt Jones -12 110.0109/1
2020 - Sungjae Im -6 34.033/1
2019 - Keith Mitchell -9 300.0299/1
2018 - Justin Thomas -8 13.012/1 (playoff)
2017 - Rickie Fowler -12 20.019/1
2016 - Adam Scott -9 26.025/1 

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What Will it Take to Win the Cognizant Classic?

As the course conditions have altered and the event profile has changed, so too have the stats of the winners.

In the six years between 2014 and 2019, 12^th was the worst any winner ranked for Driving Distance (Adam Scott in 2016), so length was clearly an advantage, but I'd favour accuracy over length off the tee now given recent results.

In the last six years, 13^th is the best anyone has ranked for Driving Distance, and three of the six winners have ranked between 40^th and 54^th for DD.

The 2023 winner, Chris Kirk ranked only 41st for DA but four of the players inside the top five and ties behind him ranked inside the top six for that stat and the other five winners over the last six years have ranked first, second, 10^th, 14^th and 15^th for DA.

The last four winners have ranked 10^th, second, fifth and fourth for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and the four previous winners all ranked first so that's still a key stat and so too is Greens in Regulation.

Highsmith ranked only 10^th but Eckroat topped the GIR stats two years ago, as did the 2022 winner, Sepp Straka, and the 2023 winner, Kirk, ranked seventh.

In the 19 editions here since 2007, 12 winners have ranked inside the top ten for GIR.

The 2014 winner, Russell Henley, ranked tied for 26th for GIR and that's the worst any winner has ranked but two of the three men he beat in the playoff, Ryan Palmer and Russell Knox, ranked tied first for GIR. 

The first three home 12 months ago ranked third, seventh and eighth for Putting Average and the front three in 2024 ranked third, first and second for PA. 

The first two home in 2023 ranked third and fifth so as the course has played easier, a hot putter has paid dividends, but prior to that, this used to be one of those few events in the calendar in which a great week with the putter wasn't required and only three of the previous12 winners had ranked inside the 10 for PA.

And if we look at the Strokes Gained: Putting stats, reading back form last year, we can see that putting really has become far more important very recently. 

The last four winners have ranked seventh, 16^th, ninth and fourth but the three winners prior to 2022 ranked 38^th, 38^th and 35^th for that stat. 

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Is There an Angle In?

Although PGA National is not a links course, it's an exposed and wind-affected venue so the fact that we've seen three Open Champions win here is perhaps not surprising. And that was very nearly four - four years ago. The 2019 Open champ, Shane Lowry, was matched at a low of 1.444/9. 

Although he's never won a major, Rickie Fowler has a great links pedigree, and a decent bank of Open Championship form and Open form came to the fore a decade ago too. The winner, Adam Scott, and the runner-up, Sergio Garcia, haven't won an Open but they're both great links players and they've both traded at odds-on to win the world's greatest tournament. Scotty has a decent bank of form at the Sony Open too and that's the best angle-in.

Last year's winner, Highsmith has a poor record from three starts at Waialae but the runner-up, Jacob Bridgeman, finished fourth there in January and the man in third, J.J Spaun, traded at odds-on there last year.

Mark Wilson, Ernie Els, Russell Henley, and Justin Thomas have all won this event and the Sony Open and the 2023 winner, Kirk, has finished second and third at the Sony Open. 

Ryan Palmer, who was one of the playoff protagonists 12 years ago, has also won a Sony in Hawaii, the 2016 winner, Adam Scott, has finished second at Waialae, and Rory Sabbatini, the 2011 winner, twice finished runner-up at the Sony Open. 

Brendan Steele, who traded at odds-on in both the 2020 and 2021 editions of the Sony, has finished fourth and third here. 

Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony, is also a wind-affected Bermuda track and the two courses clearly correlate very nicely. 

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Between 2016 and 2018, all three winners were fairly well-fancied, but this is now a very good event for outsiders. 

Highsmith was a 130.0129/1 chance before the off, Eckroat was a 220.0219/1 chance two years ago, the 2022 victor, Sepp Straka, was also matched at as high as 220.0219/1 before the off, Matt Jones hit a high of 140.0139/1 before the get-go in 2021, the 2019 winner, Keith Mitchell, went off at around 300.0299/1, having been matched at a high of 400.0399/1. 

As many as 12 of the 19 winners at PGA National have gone off at a triple-figure price. 

Americans won the first 21 editions of this event, and they've won eight of the last 13 editions but since Nick Price broke the initial US run in 1994, an overseas player has won half of the last 32 editions and 10 of the 19 winners at this venue have been from overseas.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2025 - Joe Highsmith - T8th - trailing by four 100.099/1
2024 - Austin Eckroat - tied for the lead 4.94/1
2023 - Chris Kirk - led by two strokes 2.01/1
2022 - Sepp Straka T2nd - trailing by five 24.023/1
2021 - Matt Jones - led by three strokes 2.245/4
2020 - Sungjae Im T5th - trailing by three 15.014/1
2019 - Keith Mitchell T2nd - trailing by one 9.89/1
2018 - Justin Thomas T2nd - trailing by one 3.052/1
2017 - Rickie Fowler led by four strokes 1.548/15
2016 - Adam Scott solo 4^th - trailing by three 7.413/2

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In-Play Tactics

If you're playing before the off, it's always worth checking out the weather forecast as the wind can cause havoc here and large draw biases over the first two rounds aren't unusual.

The differential in scores between the AM-PM and PM-AM wave wasn't huge last year (1.75 strokes), and Highsmith won from the wrong side of the draw, but the top nine at halfway had all began the event on Thursday morning.

Highsmith really went against the grain 12 months ago and in the fullness of time, the 2025 result will probably be viewed as an outrageous outlier.

The only player inside the top seven places with a round to go to break 70 on Sunday was Ben Griffin, who shot 69 to fall from tied third to tied fourth and that opened the door to the chasers.

Matched at 1000.0999/1, in-running, Highsmith had needed to hole a four-and-a-half-foot par putt on the 18^th on Friday just to make the cut and he became the first winner on the PGA Tour to make the cut on the number since Brandt Snedeker had won the Farmers Insurance Open in appalling conditions at Torrey Pines back in 2016.

He was helped by the leaders all stuttering on Sunday but even so, it was a remarkable comeback given he'd trailed by eight at halfway and his back-to-back 64s over the weekend saw him win his first PGA Tour title by two strokes.

Prior to last year, history had suggested that you must be up with the pace at PGA National and the 2020 winner, Sungjae Im, had been the only winner of the event in the previous 18 editions to be outside the top seven places at halfway. He'd sat ninth. 

Ernie Els, in 2008, and Straka in 2022, both sat sixth and five off the lead at halfway, but every other event winner here has been within three strokes of the lead after 36 holes. 

History may suggest that you need to be in the van at halfway but a mediocre first round has been overcome on several occasions. 

Highsmith had sat tied 11^th and only six behind Knapp after opening up with a 65 (shot 72 on Friday) but Mark Wilson sat tied for 53^rd and seven adrift after round one and two of the last six winners - Im and Straka - were outside the top-60 after the opening day's play. Im trailed by six and Straka seven. Kirk sat tied for 27^th and four adrift after round one three years ago but he was up to second and just one back at halfway. 

If you plan to bet in-running, especially on Sunday, bear in mind that the par five 18th ranked as the third easiest hole on the course last year but the finish to PGA National is tough enough when you're not in contention but when there's a title on the line it's brutal. As a result, we've witnessed plenty of in-play carnage here over the years.

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Valimaki the sole selection

The fact that Ryan Gerard, whose sole success on the PGA Tour to date was in the Barracuda Championship last year, an event played opposite the Open Championship, is the favourite tells us all we need to know about the strength of the field this week.

He finished fourth here on debut in 2023 and 25^th on his second visit 12 months ago but he's gone off at a triple figure price on each of his last two outings, finishing 45^th at Pebble Beach a fortnight ago and 28^th at Riviera on Sunday so he's definitely not for me at less than 18/119.00.

The course specialist, Shane Lowry, trades at just a fraction bigger but he's hard to get across the line and the only one I like at less than triple-figures before the off is the recent RSM Classic winner, Sami Valimaki.

The Finn hasn't shown much yet in 2026, but there's been some steady improvement since he missed his first two cuts of the year, with 41^st in Phoenix, a 34^th at Pebble Beach and a 37^th last week at Riviera, where he signed off with three-under-par 67.

Valimaki has disappointing looking form figures here reading MC-48 but they could be a bit misleading.

He only just missed out on weekend employment two years ago when his 67 on Friday wasn't enough to make up for Thursday's 75 and he sat second after firing a 63 on day one last year.

He was an impressive winner of the RSM Classic in November, and I thought he was a fair price at 70.069/1.

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