South African Open: Reed and Olesen backed for Stellenbosch success

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South African Open Tournament History

Dating all the way back to 1893, the South African Open is the second oldest National Open in the world, with only the Open Championship, which was first staged back in 1860, dating back further.

The South African Open has been co-sanctioned between the Sunshine Tour and the DP World Tour since 1997, although the 2021 edition was revised as a sole-sanctioned Sunshine Tour event when COVID-19 travel restrictions in the UK prevented most DP World Tour players from playing, and there was no edition in 2024 due to a rescheduling of the event from December to March.

After two editions at the monstrously long Gary Player designed Blair Atholl in Johannesburg the tournament returned to the Durban Country Club for the first time since Ernie Els won the fifth of his five titles in 2010 last year and we're off to another venue that hasn't been used in a while this time around.

Stellenbosch Golf Club last hosted the South African back in 1999 when David Frost came from four strokes adrift and tied eighth with a round to go to win the second of his two titles.

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Venue

Stellenbosch GC, Stellenbosch, South Africa.

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Course Details

Par 70 - 7,213 yards

Stellenbosch has been lengthened since it was last used and it now plays to a lengthy 7, 213 yards as a par 70.

It's been extensively upgraded with a total of 15 tee boxes redone, with 10 of these built new or reconstructed, and five resurfaced.

All 44 bunkers on the course have also been upgraded, and more trees have been planted in strategic areas on several holes.

The dam near the 18th green has also been enlarged.

The fairways and rough are kikuyu and the greens are bentgrass.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 10:30 on Thursday.

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2025 - Dylan Naidoo -14 (playoff - 54 holes) 320.0319/1
2024 - No tournament due to rescheduling from December to March
2023 - Dean Burmester -11 9.08/1
2022 - Thriston Lawrence -16 26.025/1
2021 - Daniel van Tonder -16 32.031/1
2020 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout -18 8.615/2 *
2020 - Branden Grace -21 25.024/1 *
2018- Louis Oosthuizen - 12 9.08/1
2017- Chris Paisley -21 400.0399/1
2017 - Graeme Storm -18 (playoff) 180.0179/1
2016 - Brandon Stone -14 60.059/1

*Two editions staged in 2020 

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Previous Winners at Stellenbosch

2019 Vodacom Origins - Thriston Lawrence (54 holes) -15
2010 Vodacom Origins - Jean Hugo (54 holes) -17
1999 South African Open - David Frost -5

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What Will it Take to Win the South African Open?

With so little to go on, we're largely operating in the dark.

There are no stats for the 1999 edition of this event at Stellenbosch, but we do have some numbers from the two 54-hole events so here's the top-three and ties with traditional stats.

2019 Vodacom Origins
Thriston Lawrence -15 DA 16 DD 13 GIR 3 SC 23 PA 27
Deon Germishuys -14 DA 4 DD 15 GIR 4 SC 17 PA 12
Riekus Nortje -14 DA 43 DD 23 GIR 17 SC 28 PA 2
J.J Senekal -14 DA 45 DD 27 GIR 4 SC 30 PA 8
Jean-Paul Stydom -14 DA 18 DD 9 GIR 8 SC 6 PA 2

2010 Vodacom Origins
Jean Hugo -17 DA 3 DD N/A GIR 2 SC 1 PA 6
Sean Norris -14 No stats available
Oliver Bekker -12 DA 18 DD N/A GIR 6 SC 9 PA 7

Stats Key
DA = Driving Accuracy
DD = Driving Distance
GIR = Greens In Regulation
SC = Scrambling
PA = Putting Average

There were no Driving Distance numbers produced in 2010 and for some reason, no numbers were published for the runner-up, Sean Norris, so we don't have an awful lot to go on.

For what it's worth, and I fear it's very little, Greens In Regulation looks the key stat.

Looking at the last event to be played here, in 2019, Thriston Lawrence separated himself from the rest on the long holes, playing the par fives in 14-under-par, which was three better than anyone else in the field but in 2010, Jean Hugo, who used to be a big hitter, played the par fours better than anyone else (-8) and he only played the par fives in five-under.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Between 2012 and 2018, five of the six winners were from overseas but that's starting to look like a strange blip now.

Between 2002 and 2011, ten of the 11 winners were experienced South Africans and as you'll see form the list above, the last seven editions have all gone the way of a South African with five of the six fairly well-fancied.

This title has continued to elude the US Masters winner, Charl Schwartzel, but most South African greats have got their hands on the trophy at least once and in the last 22 years, the Tim Clark, Trevor Immelman, Retief Goosen and of course, Els, have all won the event at least twice.

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Course Winner's Position Pre Final Round

2019 - Thriston Lawrence - T8th - trailing by six (54 holes)
2010 - Jean Hugo - led by three (54 holes)
1999 - David Frost - T8th - trailing by four

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In-Play Tactics

Thriston Lawarence shot 66 in round three to win by one and David Frost shot 68 to win by just a stroke too. Both men had sat tied for eighth.

Lawrence had trailed by six and Frost by four so on what very limited evidence we have, it appears to be a course at which ground can be made up but given we've only got three events to look at, and two of them were over 54 holes, I'd treat the stats with plenty of caution.

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Selections

As highlighted above, the vast majority of winners of the South African Open are South African but with current form figures reading 1-2-1, it's impossible to ignore the chances of America's Patrick Reed.

The 2018 Masters champion is the class act in the field and he's a fair price at 11/112.00.

Only the very elite can maintain a run of strong form week after week so there's a fair possibility that he's gone off the boil since he won the Qatar Masters two weeks ago but having backed him there at 16/117.00, I'm happy to chance him modestly before the off here at 12.523/2.

Maybe he can go one bet that American, Scott Dunlap, who finished second here in 1999, and it might also be worth highlighting that another American, Bob May, finished sixth that year too.

The same negative that applies to Reed, his nationality, applies to Denmark's Jacob Skov Olesen, but he too looks too big to ignore at odds in excess of 50/151.00.

He's got some nice bits of form on bentrass greens and he arrives in tip-top form following a third-place finish behind Reed in Qatar and a fifth place on Sunday at the Kenya Open, around two very different courses.

It's hard to envisage what sort of test the field will encounter this week but the home contingent shouldn't have a huge advantage given how infrequently the track has been used and that it's also been changed since last used.

Fellow Dane, Morten Ørum Madsen, won his one and only DP World Tour title in this event in 2013 (the 2014 edition) so Olesen isn't attempting to break new ground this week.

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