The Punter's In-Play Blog: Bhatia up by two with 18 to play

• Early start to round four

• Leader looks vulnerable

• Echavarria chanced form off the pace

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10:35 - February 15, 2026

Having been tied for the lead with Ryo Hisatsune at the halfway stage of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, pre-event 80.079/1 chance, Akshay Bhatia, was matched at a low of just 1.422/5 after a blistering start to his third round but after playing his first seven holes in six-under-par the birdies dried up completely.

The 24-year-old played his last 11 holes in two-over but he still leads by two with 18 to play. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 10:20.

Akshay Bhatia -19 3.052/1
Sepp Straka -17 5.95/1
Collin Morikawa -17 6.411/2
Jake Knapp -17 6.411/2
Jacob Bridgeman -16 23.022/1
Hideki Matsuyama -15 23.022/1
Tommy Fleetwood -14 34.033/1
Maverick McNealy -14 50.049/1
Sam Burns -14 70.069/1
Min Woo Lee -14 80.079/1
-13 and 110.0109/1 bar

Bhatia still heads the market but his position at the top of the leaderboard looks precarious after yesterday's back nine.

With poor weather predicted, the fourth round has been moved forward, with the final three-ball going out as early as 5:45 UK time, and that's just one reason to take on the frontrunner.

As highlighted yesterday, since Vaughn Taylor won from six back and tied eighth with 18 to play a decade ago, all eight winners over 72 holes sat first or second with a round to go.

That's a very positive stat for the leader, and for the three men tied for second, but windy weather creates volatility.

Collin Morikawa's 10-under-par 62 yesterday saw him move up 25 places into a tie for second and Maverick McNealy's 63 saw him climb 37 places into a tie for seventh.

Wyndham Clark won the 54-hole renewal two years ago by a stroke having trailed by six in a tie for 23^rd after 36 holes, although the fourth round was abandoned after he'd shot his 12-under-par 60 in round three.

Those examples demonstrate that an off the pace winner can't be ruled out and the fact that the wind is predicted to pick up as the day wares on will give the early starters a slight advantage.

With that in mind, I'll be watching the early play closely and I've chanced one of the chasers modestly each-way.

Trailing by six in a tie for 11^th, I thought Nico Echavarria was a sporting each-way bet at 275/1276.00 on the Sportsbook and I've also taken on the leader in the Top 5 Finish market on the Exchange.

Bhatia has led three times in total on the PGA Tour with a round to play and his record is regressive.

He won a playoff at the Texas Open in 2024 having led by four through 54 holes and he did nothing wrong there.

Denny McCarthy rallied form off the pace on the back nine to catch him, but Bhatia played well with the lead.

He then finished second in the Rocket Mortgage Classic two months later (shot 72 in round four) having been tied for the lead after 54 holes and in July last year he shot 75 on Sunday at the 3M Open to fall from tied first to tied 25^th!

Looking at this event in isolation, when the tournament has been played over four rounds over the last 30 years, 10 men have led by at least two strokes with a round to go and only four of the 10 went on to win. And three of those four led by at least six!

Davis Love converted a two-stoke advantage back in 2003 but Phil Mickeslon (2016) and Jordan Spieth (2021) both let it slip from two clear, David Duval (1997), Charlie Wi (2012) and Paul Casey (2019) all failed to convert a three-stroke lead and Pat Perez finished second, beaten by three, having led by four in 2002.

And we can also add in Dustin Johnson's final round at the 2010 US Open at Pebble Beach when he fell from first and three clear to eighth, beaten by five.

The combination of the record of clear 54-hole leaders here, his poor final round on the last occasion that he led through three rounds, and his poor back nine yesterday, suggest Bhatia may struggle today and I was more than happy to lay him at long odds-on in the Top 5 Finish market.

My pre-event 75.074/1 selection, Sepp Straka, has been nicely backed overnight and this morning and I'm not surprised.

He led through 36 and 54 holes here last year before eventually finishing seventh and he looks nicely poised this time around with 18 to play having shot 30 on the back nine yesterday.

Morikawa is clearly dangerous, but he needs to back up yesterday's low round and he's far from prolific nowadays with just one win in the last five years.

Jake Knapp, who sits alongside Morikawa and Straka is a rapidly improving player but he's only played in the event once previously, finishing 33^rd 12 months ago, and his lack of course experience may count against him on a tricky day today.

09:30 - February 14, 2026

We've reached the halfway stage of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and those that began the event at Pebble on Thursday have enjoyed a slight advantage.

Pebble Beach averaged 68.25 on Thursday compared to 69.1 yesterday and Spyglass Hill averaged 69.73 on Thursday and 69.52 yesterday so those drawn Pebble-Spyglass have enjoyed an overall advantage of just over a stroke (1.06).

That doesn't sound much but at this elite level it makes a difference and Min Woo Lee and Jake Knapp are the only players inside the top nine on the 36-hole leaderboard that were drawn Spyglass-Pebble.

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 9:20.

Akshay Bhatia -15 5.39/2
Ryo Hisatsune -15 7.613/2
Rickie Fowler -14 8.415/2
Sam Burns -14 8.615/2
Sepp Straka -12 16.531/2
Min Woo Lee -12 20.019/1
Jacob Bridgeman -12 30.029/1
Jake Knapp -11 27.026/1
Tom Hoge -11 80.079/1
Xander Schauffele -10 36.035/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -10 40.039/1
Hideki Matsuyama -10 42.041/1
Jordan Spieth -10 75.074/1
Nick Taylor -10 90.089/1
Keegan Bradley -10 95.094/1
Patrick Rodgers -10 150.0149/1
Rory McIlroy -9 28.027/1
Tommy Fleetwood -9 60.059/1
Russell Henley -9 65.064/1
Chris Gotterup -9 65.064/1
Bud Cauley -9 430.0429/1
Scottie Scheffler -6 44.043/1
-8 and 140.0139/1 bar

In the last 10 years we've seen five AT&T winners come from outside the top 10 places after two rounds.

The 2016 winner, Vaughn Taylor, trailed by six in 18^th, Ted Potter sat 35^th and eight adrift in 2018 and the last three winners have all made up ground after the second round.

Justin Rose was 11^th and three off the pace in 2023 and last year's winner, Rory McIlroy, was six back and in a tie for 13^th but the 2024 champ, Wyndham Clark, came from even further back given he won the 54-hole renewal by a stroke having trailed by six in a tie for 23^rd after 36 holes.

What makes Wyndham's win even more remarkable is that since Taylor won from six back and tied eighth with 18 to play a decade ago, all eight winners over 72 holes sat first or second with a round to go so the stats really do suggest that today is 'Moving Day'.

Dave Tindall's each-way pick, Akshay Bhatia, is the man to beat according to the market and Sepp Straka, who we both backed before the off is on the premises but the one I like at halfway is Sam Burns.

As highlighted in the preview, hot putting has been the key to victory in this event, and Burns is arguably the best putter in the world.

He topped the Strokes Gained: Putting stats on the PGA Tour last year and he ranks number one at halfway this week.

Burns hasn't won for almost three years, and he's traded at odds-on in a couple of huge events recently without getting over the line (the 2025 editions of the Canadian Open and US Open) so that's a negative but I was surprised to see him trading at as big as 8.615/2 this morning.

His 63 around Pebble on Thursday was bettered only by Ryo Hisatsune and he looks nicely poised to win his sixth PGA Tour title.