The Punter's In-Play Blog: Is it Tommy's turn at the Travelers?

• Fleetwood up by three with 18 to play

• 54-hole leaders have a poor record at TPC river Highlands

• Leader opposed at odds-on

11:25 - June 22, 2025

Having been matched at odds-on on both Thursday and Friday, the defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, now looks like a busted flush.

A triple-bogey seven at the opening hole of his third round of the Travelers Championship was too catastrophic a start to recover from on a course yielding low scores on a benign day.

His playing partner in round three, Justin Thomas, started nicely enough with a birdie three at the opening hole but he too now looks like a lost cause after he posted a nine on the par five 13^th!

Thomas was matched at just 3.7511/4 after the opening birdie yesterday but he's now trading at 1000.0999/1.

The 36-hole co-leader, Tommy Fleetwood, has taken control after a seven-under-par 63 to ease three clear but Russell Henley, who's been matched at as high as 190.0189/1 was the big mover on Moving Day and his nine-under-par 61 has seen him climb up into a tie for second.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:20.

Tommy Fleetwood -16 1.684/6
Russell Henley -13 5.79/2
Keegan Bradley -13 6.05/1
Jason Day -11 25.024/1
-8 and 100.099/1 bar

This is now Tommy Fleetwood's tournament to lose but the stats suggest he may just do that.

As highlighted yesterday, all 12 of his halfway leads or co-leads have ended in failure, his record when leading through 54-holes isn't great, and 54-hole leaders and co-leaders have a dire record at TPC River Highlands.

Fleetwood won the Dubai Invitational in January last year having led by a stroke through 54 holes but only after Rory McIlroy and Thriston Lawrence both messed up at the end. Lawrence was matched at just 1.351/3 and Rory 1.21/5.

Prior to that, Fleetwood finished third at both the Volvo Golf Champions in 2014 and at the Cognizant Classic in 2020, having led by a stroke through three rounds on both occasions.

He won the last edition of the Johnie Walker Championship in a playoff 12 years ago, having been tied at the top and he converted a two-stroke lead on the HotelPlanner Tour in 2011, but all things considered, he looks vulnerable.

Looking at the record of 54-hole leaders at this event, the third-round leader or co-leader has gone on to win only seven times in the last 21 years and only four of 17 54-hole leaders or co-leaders have gone on to win in the last 12 years. 

Since the turn of the century, we've seen 21 players hold a clear third round lead at TPC River Highlands and only eight of them converted.

Of the eight to kick on and win, six only led by a stroke.

JJ Henry led by two before winning in 2006 and Chez Reavie won by four having led by six in 2019 but Brendon Todd finished 11^th, having led by two in 2020, Paul Casy was beaten by three having led by four and the three men to hold the same advantage as Fleetwood with a round to go - Marc Calcevecchia in 2000, Justin Rose in 2010 and Daniel Berger in 2016 -  all got beat.

It would be lovely to see the likable Fleetwood finally win on the PGA Tour, but I suspect when he does it will be from off the pace and all the evidence suggests he's one to take on today.

As I backed Bradley at a juicy price yesterday, and Scheffler and Brian Harmon before the off, I've now backed Henley at 5.79/2, Day at 26.025/1 and Rory McIlroy at 220.0219/1.

It's 320.0319/1 bar so I will keep an eye on the early play but I'm now effectively laying the leader and I'm more than happy to do so.

12:15 - June 21, 2025

The defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, was matched at as low as 1.584/7 when he made back-to-back birdies at 13 and 14 in round two of the Travelers Championship but he failed to birdie the drivable par four 15 before double-bogeying 17 after an unlucky bounce off the tee.

His drive looked like fading onto the fairway but instead of running on to the short grass, the ball took a strange bounce left and into the fairway bunker from where he found water before going on to record a double-bogey six.

Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood both missed the cut in the US Open at Oakmont last week but the pair of bounced back in style.

Thomas backed up Thursday afternoon's 67 with a six-under-par 64 on Friday morning, thanks to a run of five birdies in-a-row from the 11^th, and Tommy Fleetwood drew alongside Scheffler and Thomas with eagles at 13 and 15 and a birdie at the tricky par three 16th.

Two eagles in three holes @TommyFleetwood1 rockets up the leaderboard and is just one back.

Golf Channel pic.twitter.com/5tPO4Kj5I0

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 20, 2025

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 12:05.

Scottie Scheffler -9 2.26/5
Tommy Fleetwood -9 7.26/1
Justin Thomas -9 7.613/2
Jason Day -8 17.016/1
Denny McCarthy -7 30.029/1
Austin Eckroat -7 65.064/1
Keegan Bradley -6 36.035/1
Nick Taylor -6 48.047/1
Rory McIlroy -5 22.021/1
Patrick Cantlay -5 46.045/1
-5 and 85.084/1 bar

This looks tricky to call at halfway and although it's long odds-on that one of the front three kick on and take the title, the stats suggest it's still wide open.

Since the turn of the century, 41 players have led or co-led at River Highlands through 36 holes and only eight went on to win. As many as 20 of the 41 didn't even finish inside the top five.

I've put a very small lay bet up on Tommy Fleetwood in the Top 5 Finish market at 1.68/13 as I just don't trust him in-contention.

Fleetwood has led or co-led at halfway on various Tours 12 times before and he's failed to kick on and win on every occasion.

I'm happy to stick with Scheffler, who I backed before the off, but it's mystifying to see Fleetwood trading at shorter than Thomas in the win market.

Fleetwood climbed six places up the leaderboard yesterday, Thomas 14, and Denny McCarthy, who sits tied for fifth, 31 places, so it's not inconceivable that the leaderboard looks quite different tomorrow and in the last 15 years, we've seen winners here trailing by four (twice), six, seven (twice) and even eight strokes.

In that same timespan, we've also seen two players lose a playoff having trailed by five, one lose having sat six off the lead at halfway, and one get beat in extra time having trailed by ten!

With all that in mind, course specialist, Patrick Cantlay, who trails by four, looks a fair price at 46.045/1 but the two I'm chancing for tiny stakes are the pair tied for seventh and just three off the lead - the 2023 winner, Keegan Bradley, and the in-form and prolific Canadian, Nick Taylor.

I though those two both looked nicely priced at 36.035/1 and 50.049/1 respectively.

10:35 - June 20, 2025

The defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, was weak in the market before the off at this week's PGA Tour event - the Travelers Championship - drifting from 4.216/5 to 4.84/1 but it wasn't long before the layers new they might be in trouble.

Morning starter, Austin Eckroat, who was generally a 520.0519/1 chance before the off, posted a bogey-free eight-under-par 62 to set the clubhouse lead but Scheffler was matched at just 1.715/7 when he went past him after an eagle at 13 and a birdie at 15.

Dialed on a Thursday

Scottie Scheffler eagles the 13th to move to 8-under and in a tie for the lead.

Golf Channel pic.twitter.com/CNHhsuxklB

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 19, 2025

Jim Furyk posted the lowest round in PGA Tour history, a 12-under-par 58, at TPC River Highlands back in 2016 and Cameron Young shot 59 here last year so the there was plenty of talk about the possibility of a sub-60 by the world number one but he played his remaining three holes in one-over after missing the par four 17^th green from a tricky lie in the rough.

As it's a limited field event with no cut, the final two-ball kicks off only six hours after the first but it's still noteworthy that Scheffler is the only player in the top-six that began the event on Thursday afternoon.

Here's the 18-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:25.

Scottie Scheffler -8 1.9310/11
Austin Eckroat -8 38.037/1
Rory McIlroy -6 9.89/1
Keegan Bradley -6 20.019/1
Wyndham Clark -6 55.054/1
Cameron Young -5 34.033/1
-4 and 36.035/1 bar

Scheffler is obviously the man to beat, and with an early tee time today, he could put quite a bit of daylight between himself and the rest of the field, but given this is effectively a birdie-fest, first round leaders don't have an exceptionally good record.

Making up ground and passing the leaders when scoring is super low is never easy but it's now eight years since we saw a first round leader or co-leader go on to take the title - Jordan Spieth - and of the 50 men to lead or be tied for the lead after the opening round here this century, only six have gone on to win.

Peter Jacobsen, in 2003, and Spieth in 2017, who had to withdraw yesterday with a back injury, are the only two of the six to win here wire-to-wire and we've seen four recent winners start very slowly.

Kevin Streelman, in 2014, and Bubba Watson, in 2018, both trailed by seven, Ken Duke, in 2013, was eight adrift after round one, and the 2020 winner, Dustin Johnson, sat 79^th and nine adrift after a level par 70 on Thursday.

With all that in mind, and having backed Scheffler before the off, I'm happy to sit on my hands for now and see where we are at halfway.

Pre-Event Pick:
Scottie Scheffler @ 4.3100/30

In-Play Picks:
Keegan Bradley @ 36.035/1
Nick Taylor @ 50.049/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Picks:
Brian Harman @ 110.0109/1
Ryan Fox @ 150.0149/1
Kevin Yu @ 190.0189/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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