The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rory heads the market again

• Long and Smith look opposable

• Rory the very obvious favourite

• Fox and Forrest sporting alternatives

---

09:10- September 10, 2023

With the 36-hole leaders, Jordan Smith and Shubhankar Sharma, stuttering on Saturday, and with the pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, along with class acts, Billy Horschel and Ryan Fox, firing impressive six-under-par 66s from off the pace, the Irish Open has been blown wide open with a round to go.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:00.

Hurly Long -13 9.08/1
Jordan Smith -12 5.69/2
Rory McIlroy -11 3.052/1
Ryan Fox -10 15.014/1
Calum Hill -10 32.031/1
Grant Forrest -10 34.033/1
Julien Brun -10 42.041/1
Shubhankar Sharma -10 42.041/1
Ross Fisher -10 44.043/1
Min Woo Lee -9 19.537/2
Billy Horschel -9 22.021/1
Marcel Schneider -9 75.074/1
Shane Lowry -8 50.049/1
Thomas Detry -8 70.069/1
-8 and 100.099/1 bar

For the 22nd time in his career, Rory McIlroy will start round four trailing by just two strokes and with the two men in front of him looking opposable, odds of more than 2/13.00 look more than acceptable.

Hurly Long finds himself in front despite an ordinary round of 70 yesterday and given he's never been here before; he looks readily opposable.

Jordan Smith was a big disappointment yesterday, firing a lacklustre 73 and he'll have his work cut out today to arrest the slide.

Rory looks a good thing to finish the day in front of his three-ball partners but the dangers behind him look menacing and plentiful.

On the 21 occasions that Rory has trailed by a couple of strokes entering the fourth and final round, he's only actually gone on to win four times and although he's converted on two of the last five occurrences, I'm happy to let him go unbacked this morning.

Rory shooting another low round at a venue he's already won at, with huge home crowds cheering him on all the way wouldn't surprise anyone but McIlroy rarely does thinks simply.

He produced the most remarkable finish to deny Robert MacIntyre at the Scottish Open back in July and when he won here in 2016, having led by three with a round to go, he made hard work of it before another spectacular finish.

A slow start, a drift in the market and a rip-roaring finish to lift the trophy may well be on the cards today and those that want to strap themselves in at 2/13.00 may well enjoy the ride but I'm happy to let him go unbacked at this stage.

If he starts nicely and canters off into the horizon so be it but I'm not convinced he'll convert and I fancy there'll be opportunities to get him at a bigger price in-running even if he does.

Although I don't like the look of the leading pair, alternatives to McIlroy look plentiful.

Min Woo Lee and Billy Horschel are obvious candidates but the two I like are Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Ryan Fox, who's improved his score day-by-day, and Scotland's Grant Forrest, who's hitting greens with regularity and scrambling nicely when he doesn't.

Trailing Long by three and just a stroke behind Rory, I thought the 15.014/1 about Fox and the 34.033/1 for Forrest were sporting alternatives to the obvious and I'll begin round four with those onside and with a view to trading McIlroy in-running once the Rory rollercoaster is in motion.

09:55- September 9, 2023

With the majority of fancied runners disappointing at the K Club so far, pre-event 40.039/1 chance, Jordan Smith, shares the halfway lead at the Irish Open with huge outsider, Shubhankar Sharma, who was generally a 610.0609/1 chance before the off.

My 130.0129/1 Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Guido Migliozzi, finished round two nicely to remain on the heels of the leaders but everyone inside the top-eight, apart from Smith, went off at least 320.0319/1 and several of the contenders at halfway went off at three times that price. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:50.

Jordan Smith -13 3.39/4
Shubhankar Sharma -13 7.87/1
Ross Fisher -12 12.011/1
Hurly Long -11 24.023/1
Calum Hill -10 21.020/1
Guido Migliozzi -9 21.020/1
Scott Jamieson -9 50.049/1
Freddy Schott -9 65.064/1
Shane Lowry -8 16.015/1
Joost Luiten -7 [50.049/1
Min Woo Lee -6 36.035/1
Rory McIlroy -5 17.016/1
-7 and 55.054/1 bar

Although he went a few years not particularly convincing in contention, on the last occasion that Jordan Smith was tied for the lead, at the Portugal Masters in October last year, he fired 62-63 over the weekend to win by three in a tournament record-breaking 30-under-par.

That was just his second DP World Tour title and his first in five years, but this is an excellent chance for him to chalk up win number three and odds in excess of 2/13.00 are more than fair.

Already matched at a low of 2.021/1 yesterday, before his only blemish of the day, a double-bogey six at the 17th, Smith is the man to beat.

Sharma was matched at just 3.185/40 when he threatened to run away with the event yesterday morning, firing a devasting seven-under-par 28 on the front-nine before a scruffy one-over-par on the back-nine saw him reeled in by Smith later in the day.

Like Smith, Sharma is a two-time DP World Tour winner but he hasn't won in five years and on the three occasions he's led at halfway he's been beaten. The last occasion that he led at halfway was at the Kenya Open in 2022 and having led by a stroke, he shot 75-69 to finish tied for 13th.

Smith looks far and away the more likely of the two pacesetters to kick on and take the title and as highlighted in the preview, up with the pace is the place to be at the K-Club.

Per-Ulrik Johansson was four adrift and tied for ninth at this stage when he won the first of his two European Open titles here in 1996 and Kennie Ferrie won from off the pace in foul weather in 2005 but the other eight course winners since 1997 were all inside the top-four places.

We certainly can't rule out the likes of Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Min Woo Lee and even Adrian Meronk, who all trail by at least five (Rory and Meronk trail by eight!) and I've had a tiny bet on the prolific Thriston Lawrence, who trails by six, but the stats all point to Smith and he's a decent price at 3.39/4.

09:35- September 8, 2023

The law of sod has dictated that last week's Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Shubhankar Sharma, would turn up a week late and lead the Irish Open after a seven-under-par 65 around the K Club on Thursday and he's picked up from where he left off this morning.

Sharma was matched at a high of 710.0709/1 before the off but he's already been matched at a low of 10.09/1 after birdying his first two holes this morning to stretch his lead to three.

It's a great start but his backers certainly won't be counting any chickens just yet.

The pre-event second favourite, Tyrrell Hatton, was a huge disappointment yesterday.

The Englishman shot a three-over-par 75 yesterday afternoon, although he is repairing some of the damage already this morning. At the time of writing he's two-under-par through four but he's got his work cut out to make the cut.

Rory McIlroy, who isn't yet 100% after tweaking his back before the Tour Championship last month, needed a little help from a fan to find his ball on the first yesterday but he still heads the market after a three-under-par 69.

Irish fans looking after their own #HorizonIrishOpen
pic.twitter.com/Nb5wmqkhqT

? Horizon Irish Open (@IrishOpen_) September 7, 2023

The 2016 winner tees it up in round two this afternoon and he makes little appeal at around 4/15.00 but I have had a little bet on Max Kieffer alongside him on -3, who also begins his second round this afternoon.

The 33-year-old German has started nicely compared to 2016 when he opened the event with a 77 to sit 12 off the lead and tied for 126th.

Kieffer finished the week in a tie for fifth, so he clearly likes the venue and although he didn't drive very well yesterday, he ranked seventh for Greens In Regulation and first for Strokes Gained Putting.

It's very early days but I thought he was worth chancing at a triple-figure price.

Irish Open Pre-event Selections:
Adrain Meronk @ 33/134.00 (Win Only)
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 80.079/1

In-Play Picks:
Max Kieffer @ 110.0109/1
Thriston Lawrence @ 90.089/1
Ryan Fox @ 15.014/1
Grant Forrest @ 34.033/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2u Rasmus Hojgaard 100.099/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
2u Guido Migliozzi @ 110.0109/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter