The Punter's In-Play Blog: Griffin and Schmid still show the way

• Griffin and Schmid four clear with 18 to play

• Scheffler rallies to give himself a chance

• Leaders look vulnerable

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12:40 - May 24, 2025

Having been tied at the top and two clear of the remainder of the field at the halfway stage of the Charles Schwab Challenge, Ben Griffin and Matti Schmid head into today's fourth and final round still locked together and three clear of the rest. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 12:20.

Ben Griffin -13 2.166/5
Matti Schmid -13 3.3512/5
Rickie Fowler -9 21.020/1
Robert Macintyre -8 28.027/1
Akshay Bhatia -8 32.031/1
Nick Hardy -8 150.0149/1
Scottie Scheffler -7 12.523/2
Andrew Novak -7 75.074/1
Kurt Kitayama -7 120.0119/1
-6 and 160.0159/1 bar

The two leaders started round three brilliantly, birdying the first three holes and as a result, Griffin has already been matched at odds-on (1.981/1) and Schmid hit a low of 2.265/4 but instead of pulling away after their quick starts, they trod water thereafter, with both men playing their final 15 holes in one-over-par.

Griffin is the man the market considers most likely to win but I'm in no rush to back either of the frontrunners.

Griffin has led twice previously with a round to go in an individual event on the PGA Tour, and he failed to break par on both occasions.

He was tied for the lead at the Bermuda Championship after three rounds in 2022 but finished third after shooting 72 on Sunday and he was three clear at the Sandersons Farms Championship in 2023, but he finished tied for second after posting a sorry 74 on Sunday.

Level par for the day, Griffin was matched at as low as 1.222/9 when he led by two with just three to play in Mississippi but bogeys at 16 and 18 saw the event go to a playoff with Luke List winning with a birdie at the first extra hole.

Schmid may represent value at odds in excess of 9/43.25 but he's holed some ridiculous putts to remain tied for the lead and his record in-contention on Sunday is no better than Griffin's.

The German led the Barbasol Championship by two with 18 to play back in 2022 but shot 77 on Sunday to finish eighth and he finished 10^th at the Puerto Rico Open last year having sat second with a round to go following a sorry 73 on Sunday.

Both men are in search of their first individual PGA Tour titles and if they don't get off to fast starts again today, nerves could well get the better of them today.

Should the front two flop, Scottie Scheffler is the most likely man to benefit according to the market, but he's got plenty to do from six shots back.

Scheffler, along with Robert Macintyre, who now sits tied for fourth and five off the lead, and Lucas Glover, shot the lowest round of the day yesterday - a six-under-par 64 - but he'll need to repeat the feat at least today and I'm far from convinced he's a fantastic price at around 12/113.00.

This is a really tough tournament to gauge with 18 to play but I was happy to take a tiny chance on tommy Fleetwood in the win market at 170.0169/1 and I've layed Griffin at long odds-on in the Top 5 Finish market.

If Fleetwood is ever going to win on the PGA Tour, from seven back on a Sunday with the leaders collapsing is the most likely scenario and if Griffin is to perform badly today, it's far from inconceivable that he doesn't place so I was happy to lay him at 1.152/13.

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21:30 - May 24, 2025

The pre-event favourite, Jordan Smith, shot the best round of the day in round three of the Soudal Open today - an immaculate seven-under-par 64- and he's moved up 48 places from tied for 52^nd to a tie for fourth but he still trails the halfway leader, Ewen Ferguson, by five, and he's still trading at 20.019/1.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:20.

Ewen Ferguson -13 1.784/5
John Parry -11 4.216/5
Darius Van Friel -9 27.026/1
Jordan Smith -8 20.019/1
Frederic Lacroix -8 27.026/1
Oliver Lindell -8 44.043/1
Andy Sullivan -7 110.0109/1
-6 and 120.0119/1 bar

Sam Horsfield sat second, trailing by one, after three rounds when he won this event at Rinkven in 2022, but the other three course winners have been in front after 54 holes so although we witnessed a number of players climbing the leaderboard from someway off the pace today, we probably need to be concentrating on the leaders with 18 holes to play.

Ferguson is the 72^nd player to take a two-stroke lead into the final round of a DP World Tour event in the last ten years and he's bidding to be the 37^th to kick on and win, suggesting he's fractionally short at around the 4/51.80 mark.

His record when leading through three rounds wasn't great in the early part of his career but he's improved as he's matured.

Ferguson led or was tied for the lead after 54 holes on the HotelPlanner Tour three times in 2021 and he failed to convert every time and he gave up a four-stroke 54-hole lead at the Kenya Open in March 2022, but his more recent efforts suggest he'll be tough to pass tomorrow

He successfully converted a three-stroke lead at the ISPS Handa World Invitational in August 2022, and he won the BMW International in July last year, having been tied at the top with 18 to play, but he did fall away at the Open de France to finish 10^th in September 2023, having been tied for the lead after three rounds.

Given the record of 54 leaders here, and Ferguson's improved efforts when leading after three rounds, he's difficult to oppose but trailing by two, and two clear of Darius Van Driel in third, John Parry looks a more appealing proposition at more than 3/14.00.

Parry won four times last year, three times on the HotelPlanner Tour and once on the DP World Tour, so he should be confident of putting in a bold showing.

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09:10 - May 24, 2025

Having led by three after day one, John Pak shot a respectable two-under-par 68 yesterday afternoon at the Charles Schwab Challenge but he heads into the weekend trailing by two.

Friday's early starters enjoyed much the better conditions, with the morning wave averaging 2.18 strokes less than the afternoon starters.

Ben Griffin and Matti Schmid, who both teed off on Friday morning after posting 66 on Thursday afternoon, matched Pak's day one 63 and they lead by three with 36 holes to play. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 9:00.

Ben Griffin -11 3.211/5
Matti Schmid -11 6.05/1
John Pak -9 30.029/1
Chris Gotterup -8 19.018/1
Akshay Bhatia -7 17.533/2
Ryo Hisatsune -7 22.021/1
Tommy Fleetwood -6 16.015/1
JJ Spaun -6 29.028/1
-6 and 40.039/1 bar

Last year's runaway winner, Davis Riley, was two clear at the halfway stage and Kevin Kisner in 2017, and Justin Rose 12 months later, were both in front at halfway too.

Being up with the pace is typically the way to go here but we've seen some winners come from miles back with 36 holes to play, giving feint hopes for Scottie Scheffler backers.

Adam Scott won in 2014, having sat tied for 36^th and six back, Chris Kirk trailed by seven at halfway ten years ago, and Sam Burns sat tied for 40^th and eight adrift at this stage three years ago.

Scheffler, who sits tied for 49^th, trails by ten but he has no chance whatsoever if continues to putt as poorly as he has over the first two days.

As an indication of just how important putting is at Colonial, the first three on the leaderboard at halfway rank first, third and fourth for Putting Average and first, eighth and third for Strokes Gained: Putting after 36 holes. Scheffler ranks 106^th for PA and 76^th for SG: Putting!

Schmid is the man that tops the two flatstick rankings but it's the recent Zurich Classic winner, Ben Griffin, that heads the market.

Still yet to win an individual PGA Tour event, Griffin is clearly in good heart following his victory alongside Andrew Novak at TPC New Orleans last month, but he looks short enough here.

This is a tough tournament to call but I want to oppose the front three, who are all in search of their first wins.

Dave Tindall's each-way 80/181.00 fancy, Ryo Hisatsune, commands plenty of respect and so too does the man alongside him in a tie for fifth, last year's Texas Open winner, Akshay Bhatia.

I was very tempted by Bhatia but his form coming in was far from great and some of his comments after round two are a bit off-putting.

"My golf swing is nowhere close where I want it to be," Bhatia said. "I can get away with it with my irons just because I hit so many off-speed shots. I have pretty good face control there. When it comes do driver, I step up and don't really know where it's going to go sometimes."

Of the six players tied for seventh and five back, Tommy Fleetwood is the most obvious candidate but he's yet to win on the PGA Tour and the one I'm happy to take a small chance on with two rounds to play is the man sitting in fourth - Chris Gotterup.

The 25-year-old was an extremely impressive winner of the Myrtle Beach Classic last year, and if he can hole one or two more putts over the weekend, he's a big danger.

Gotterup, who won the Myrtle Beach Classic by six, ranks sixth for Greens In Regulation at halfway but only 22^nd for PA and 28^th for SG: Putting.

Gotterup is generally a 14/115.00 chance on the High Street and no bigger than 16/117.00 so I was more than happy to take 19.537/2 on the Exchange.

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18:20 - May 23, 2025

England's Marco Penge looked like he may be leading at halfway at the Soudal Open, but he bogeyed his final hole of the day to post -8 before afternoon starter, Ewen Ferguson, sailed past him to lead by three. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with approximate prices to back at 18:10.

Ewen Ferguson -11 2.89/5
Marco Penge -8 9.08/1
Joost Luiten -7 11.010/1
John Parry -7 11.521/2
Brandon Robinson-Thompson -7 15.014/1
Andrew Wilson -7 27.026/1
Troy Merritt -7 32.031/1
Darius Van Driel -7 40.039/1
-5 and 40.039/1 bar

I'm a little bit annoyed not to have backed the leader before the off. I felt he was fractionally short at around 55.054/1 given his current form, but he looks a great bet now.

As highlighted in the preview, form in Kenya has correlated brilliantly at this venue and Ferguson is just one of many to have demonstrated that.

The Scotsman led the Kenya Open by four strokes with a round to go back in 2022, before a 77 on Sunday saw him slump to eighth, and he lost a semi final in this event in the previous stroke play/match play hybrid format way back in 2019.

The leaderboard is again littered with players that have performed nicely in Kenya, at either Karen Country Club or Muthaiga, and whatever happens from here on in, it's a link to bear in mind going forward. Both the Kenyan layouts are tree-lined, and both are very similar courses to this.

As highlighted last night, I backed Penge after round one, but I was also keen on the chances of morning starters, Daniel Brown and John Parry (who led the Kenya Open at halfway in February) and I was going to keep my eye on Ferguson.

Brown has fallen away but Parry's on the premises in a tie for third and Ferguson looks like he's going to be very tough to beat after today's seven-under-par 64 in the tricky afternoon conditions.

Ferguson is the only man in the field yet to drop a shot and if the stats are to be believed, he's a very fair price at around 7/42.75.

Over the last ten years, we've seen 25 players lead a DP World Tour event by three strokes after two rounds and ten of them went on to win (40%) but at this venue, in four stroke play events to date, all four winners have been in front at halfway. None of them have led by any more than a stroke so Ferguson should be tough to beat, and anything over 6/42.50 looks very fair.

I'll be back in the morning with a look at the Charles Schwab Challenge, once they've reached the halfway stage.

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08:50 - May 23, 2025

Last night's coverage of the Charles Schwab Challenge was somewhat comical.

Every ten minutes or so we were informed that winds gusting up to 35 mph were going to hit the Fort Worth area very soon but after an hour or so of the doom-ladened countdown, and about 10 minutes before the storm was due to hit, we were told it was going to miss the area completely!

It was a good job for the afternoon starters that the storm did miss (if it ever really existed) as conditions were a bit tougher than they'd been in the morning anyway.

What breeze there was had firmed up the putting surfaces and the PM wave averaged 0.56 of a stroke more than the morning starters.

After starting very well in the afternoon, with an eagle at the first and a birdie at the second, the pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, struggled a bit, hitting just five fairways, and after he'd missed numerous makable birdie putts, he ended the day on -2 and in a tie for 20^th.

Scheffler kicks his second round off early today and he'll need to drive it better and hole more putts than he did yesterday if he's going to justify his low odds.

Having touched as low as 2.021/1 after the lightening-fast start, he's now back out to around 3.711/4.

Korn Ferry Tour graduate and PGA Tour rookie, John Pak, who was a 1000.0999/1 chance before the off, is the man setting the early pace after he shot a sensational seven-under-par 63 to lead by three.

The 26-year-old is still trading at 46.045/1 this morning but we haven't seen a first round leader go on to win since Zach Johnson achieved the feat back in 2012, so the stats are against him.

Having backed only Scheffler before the off, I'm going to sit on my hands for now and see how he fares today, but I was very tempted to play JT Poston who recovered brilliantly yesterday afternoon to post -4 to sit alongside eight others in a tie for second.

Poston was two-over par through five holes, but his customarily hot putter saw him play his last 13 holes in six-under-par.

In contrast to Scheffler, who ranks 32^nd for Putting Average and 60^th for Strokes Gained: Putting after round one, Poston ranks fifth for PA and second for SG: Putting, as well as third for Greens In Regulation, and that bodes well in a tournament that's nearly always decided with the flatstick.

Poston is the 14/115.00 second favourite and that price will soon look big if he continues to putt like he did yesterday.

The second round of the Soudal Open is well underway and I'll be back later with a look at that one at the halfway stage.

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20:40 - May 22, 2025

Play is underway at the Charles Schwab Challenge and the red-hot pre-event favourite, the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, who's one of the afternoon starters at Colonial, opened up the event with an eagle at one and a birdie at two.

He's already been matched at as short as 2.021/1 but a lot is going to depend on the weather.

At the time of writing, conditions are benign but windy weather is predicted to hit the Fort Worth area shortly.

I'll be back tomorrow with a look at that event but for now I'm concentrating on this week's DP World Tour event, the Soudal Open, where Joost Luiten, Arron Cockerill and Angel Ayora are tied for the lead after the trio shot six-under-par 65s this morning.

My Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Thriston Lawrence, is one back and alongside Sean Crocker and the recent Hainan Classic winner, Marco Penge, in a tie for fourth, and there are 25 players in total within three of the lead.

It looks wide open, but the stats tell us we should already be concentrating on the very top of the leaderboard.

As highlighted in the preview, three of the four previous winners at Rinkven won wire-to-wire and the other victor was tied for first after rounds one and two and solo second, trailing by just one, after round three.

Luiten is the man to beat according to the market but the one I like at this stage is Penge.

The 27-year-old Englishman must be full of confidence. He followed his victory in China with a missed cut in Turkey but his tied 28^th in the US PGA Championship last week, where he ranked third for Driving Distance, was a brilliant performance.

He won't need his length here, and in the three previous editions of the event here, neither driving metric has been crucial, but all the winners have scrambled and putted nicely.

Penge only ranks 22^nd for Scrambling and 11^th for Putting Average after round one but he's the only player inside the top six that played in the slightly trickier afternoon today and he may just get a run on the rest in the morning.

The pre-event 65.064/1 chance is no bigger than 12/113.00 on the High Street so 14.013/1 on the Exchange is fair.

I'm also quite keen on the chances of fellow morning starters and fellow Englishmen, John Parry and Daniel Brown, who sit tied for 13^th and three off the lead and I'll be keeping my eye on afternoon starter, Ewen Ferguson, but for now my only in-play pick is Penge.

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Soudal Open Pre-Event Pick:
Jacques Kruyswijk @ 85.084/1

In-Play Pick:
Marco Penge @ 14.013/1

Charles Schwab Challenge Pre-Event Pick:
Scottie Scheffler @ 11/43.75

Find Me a 100 Winner Column here

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