The Punter's In-Play Blog: Scheffler eight clear in Texas

• World number one up by eight after three rounds

• Leader impossible to oppose in the win market

• South African may be worth chancing in the final two-ball

08:40 - May 4, 2025

After the substantial weather delay on Friday, the final group at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson finished in the dark last night to get their third rounds finished and with a round to go, the tournament appears to be all over.

After a five-under-par 66 around TPC Craig Ranch in round three, Scottie Scheffler now leads by eight with 18 to play and that's the largest lead on the PGA Tour since Rory McIlroy won the US Open back in 2011.

Scottie Scheffler leads by EIGHT heading into the final round in his hometown @CJByronNelson

It's the largest 54-hole lead on TOUR since 2011. pic.twitter.com/uM0N4PiNra

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 4, 2025

Scheffler is the seventh player to lead by eight with a round to go on the PGA Tour this century and unsurprisingly, the previous six all converted.

Nobody has ever lost a PGA Tour having led by seven or more strokes, but I do recall how close the 2005 St Jude Classic was in the end...

Justin Leonard had gone into the final round leading by eight but in search of his third win in the event in-a-row, the 9/110.00 favourite, David Toms, applied the pressure from tied seventh and 11 strokes adrift with a round to go.

Toms eagled the 15^th and chipped in from 60 feet for a birdie at 17 to get within two of Leonard and had he holed his birdie putt at 18 from 14 feet we may well have witnessed an almighty shock.

The birdie attempt missed, Toms had to settle for a seven-under-par 63, and Leonard eventually won by a stroke after a bogey at the last.

We're extremely unlikely to witness anything as nervy as that from the world number one today and the win market is now effectively dead.

Scheffler is now 1.021/50 to win and its 220.0219/1 bar!

There are options away from the win market and if looking for a bet, I'd be seeking to oppose another low round by the leader.

With the tournament as good as wrapped up, Scheffler is unlikely to do anything outrageous today and if I had to predict his final round score, I'd be looking at a 68 or 69.

Looking at the previous six players to lead by eight with 18 to play on the PGA Tour this century, Phil Mickelson was the only one to go low again in round four. He shot a seven-under-par 65 around TPC Sugarloaf to win the BellSouth Classic by 13 strokes 19 years ago but the other five shot rounds of 72, 68, 73, 71 and 69.

Scheffler is 4/61.67 to shoot over 65.5 and I prefer the 4/51.80 about him making under 6.5 birdies or better but Erik Van Rooyen to beat him in the final two-ball at 11/43.75 is arguably the best bet, if you want to oppose the leader in some way.

There's also a Winner W/O Scottie Scheffler market here but it's 4/15.00 the field and just too tough to call for my liking so I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the show.

09:20 - May 3, 2025

Play was stopped due to bad weather at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson yesterday, just after the first-round leader, Scottie Scheffler, had eagled the par five ninth hole.

Starting round two from the 10^th tee, the world number one had parred his first eight holes and having been a 1.625/8 chance after round one, he drifted all the way out to even money but after sitting around for more than six hours, he returned to the course to seemingly put the tournament to bed!

Back-to-back birdies at one and two set the scene on his return and he eventually signed for an eight-under-par 63.

Scheffler's 61-63 start sees him leading by six on -18 and it's very hard to see him losing from here, even though much of the field is yet to start round two, and the stats suggest he probably shouldn't be as short as he is at 1.111/9.

With so many players yet to complete their second rounds, we can't assume his lead will be six at the halfway point but if it is, he'll be just the eighth man this century to lead by six at the halfway stage of a PGA Tour event this century and only four of the previous seven converted.

Tiger Woods (2000), Rory McIlroy (2011), and Martin Kaymer (2014), all won the US Open having led by six after 36 holes and Phil Mickelson won the now defunct BellSouth Classic by an incredible 13 strokes in 2006, one week before he won the US Masters for a second time, but the other three men to lead a 72 holes stroke play event on the PGA Tour by six this century have all been beaten.

Darren Clarke finished second at the RBC Heritage in 2005, Jhonattan Vegas finished fourth at the 2016 Barbasol Championship and Sung Kang finished second at the Houston Open in 2017.

Those stats are interesting but I'm in no hurry to lay my pre-event wager back and the fact that his 124 total is the joint-second lowest opening 36-hole total on the PGA Tour, understandably, bodes well.

Lowest opening 36-hole totals in PGA Tour history

123 - Justin Thomas, 2017 Sony (won)
124 - Scottie Scheffler, 2025 Byron Nelson
124 - Jason Day, 2015 BMW (won)
124 - David Toms, 2011 Colonial (won)
124 - Pat Perez, 2009 AmEx (won)

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) May 2, 2025

I'll be back tomorrow whether the tournament is back on track or not but the weather forecast suggests we should get a clear run now.

10:00 - May 2, 2025

Morning starter and pre-event 110.0109/1 chance, Rico Hoey, was matched at as a low as 1.84/5 to lead after round one of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson after he'd posted an eight-under-par 63 but it soon became apparent that his lead was in doubt once the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, got going.

Teeing off five-and-half hours after Hoey, Scheffler was odds-on to win the tournament after eight holes!

Having played the first eight holes in five-under-par, Scheffler hit a perfect approach to the par five ninth to set up an eagle putt form just outside four feet and although he cooled off fractionally on the back-nine to post a10-under-par 61, he still heads into round two with a two-shot lead.

Scottie's feeling it in Texas

World No. 1 goes low in Round 1 @CJByronNelson. pic.twitter.com/5In9MTWKLi

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 2, 2025

Scheffler is now a 1.625/8 chance to win the event on the Exchange and he's 1/21.50 with the Sportsbook to end round two in front.

That looks fractionally short given it's never easy to back up a low round, no matter who you are, and that the rest of the field will be relaxed today.

There won't be anyone in the field that doesn't think they're up against it now and plenty of players will relax and go low today around the rain-softened Craig Ranch layout.

The course was supposedly strengthened a bit before the off this year with fairways narrowed and rough allowed to grow more than in previous years but rain before the off has rendered the track defenceless.

I'm obviously happy to have backed the leader before the off and he'll take some stopping even if he does get headed today.

Unless there's poor weather, it's very hard to play catch up when the scoring's low and five of the six winners at Craig Ranch have begun the week with a 64 or better.

Matt Bettencourt shot 68 when he won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship here in 2008, but he was still inside the top 10 after round one and the last five course winners have all been inside the top seven.

We only have limited data given the course has only been used twice on the Korn Ferry Tour and four times for this event, but it certainly looks like Scheffler will be tough to beat.

Davis Riley, who trails by five, is the best of my three Find Me a 100 Winner picks so I'm irritated that I didn't make Patton Kizzire one of my selections.

He drifted all the way out to 1000.0999/1 after I'd backed him at 600.0599/1 and mentioned him in the column and after his seven-under-par 64 yesterday afternoon, he still looks too big at around 200.0199/1 so I've had a small top-up at that price.

Scheffler is clearly going to be tough to beat but Kizzire knows how to win and like Scheffler, he tees off nice and early in round two.

With Scheffler seemingly in control already, the Exchange have loaded up a Winner W/O Scottie Scheffler market here.

Pre-Event Selections:
Scottie Scheffler @ 4.216/5
Jake Knapp @ 65.064/1

In-Play Pick:
Patton Kizzire @ 200.0199/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Column here

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