The Punter's In-Play Blog: Harman holds firm after shaky start on Saturday

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• Harman up by three with 18 to play

07:50 - April 6, 2025

With the typical Texan wind picking up on Saturday to trouble the field at TPC San Antonio, the stroke average rose to 73.88 in round three of the Valero Texas Open yesterday, having averaged 71.24 on Friday.

Only eight players broke the par of 72 and only two men managed to break 70. Tom Hoge, who shot the best round of the day, a four-under-par 68, was the only player not to record at least one bogey.

The halfway leader, Brian Harman, started his third round poorly, bogeying the second and the fourth holes, but he composed himself brilliantly after that to post level par and he's still the man to beat.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:40.

Brian Harman -12 1.748/11
Andrew Novak -9 6.611/2
Tom Hoge -8 11.010/1
Keith Mitchell -7 18.535/2
Ryo Hisatsune -6 50.049/1
Sami Valimaki -6 50.049/1
Chad Ramey -6 100.099/1
Denny McCarthy -5 55.054/1
Maverick McNealy -5 65.064/1
Corey Conners -4 95.094/1
Patrick Cantlay -4 120.0119/1
-4 and 300.0299/1 bar

This is the fifth time that Harman has held a clear advantage with 18 to play on the PGA Tour and his record is fair.

In addition to winning the 2023 Open Championship by six, having led by five through 54 holes, he converted a one-stroke lead at the John Deere Classic 11 years ago but he finished third at the Travelers Championship a year later, having led by one, and he finished second to Brooks Koepka at the US Open in 2017, having also led there by a stroke.

Harman is the 119^th player to take a three-stroke lead into the final round of a 72-hole stroke play PGA Tour event this century and he's bidding to be the 63^rd to convert.

That's a strike rate of 53% but they've had a great record of late...

Since Taylor Pendrith shot 76 to finish fifth at the 2021 Bermuda Championship, nine of the 11 players to lead by three went on to take the title and Harman looks a fair price to make it 10 out of 12 given the calibre of the immediate chasers.

Andrew Novak, who caught an outrageous break on the par three 16^th in round three to record a birdie two after his ball ricocheted back off the wall behind the green, is yet to win on the PGA Tour, and the man sitting alone in third and four back, Hoge, has just one PGA Tour title to his name. Both men were triple-figure outsiders before the off.

Hoge has been within four of the lead with a round to go on the PGA Tour 21 times previously and his sole success to date, at the AT&T Pro-Am in 2021, came when he was tied for the lead with 18 to play.

Keith Mitchel is still in with an outside chance after his one-over-par 73 in round three but he's not one to trust in-the-mix and if Harman messes up, the winner may come from slightly further back.

Ryo Hisatsune, who sits tied for fifth alongside Chad Ramey and my 170.0169/1 Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Sami Valimaki, was an impressive winner of the Open de France on the DP World Tour in September 2023, having trailed by four with a round to play, Denny McCarthy, who lost in a playoff here last year, having trailed by four after 54 holes, can't be ruled out, and despite his poor finish yesterday, the two-time winner, Corey Conners, is an interesting candidate at a triple-figure price.

Having teed off on the 10^th, the Canadian was five-under-par for his round with just two holes to play yesterday but he finished 6-6 to post two-under!

I'll be back later today with my US Masters preview.

09:10 - April 5, 2025

Pre-event 170.0169/1 chance, Brian Harman, led the Valero Texas Open by six strokes at one stage late in the day on day two but a bogey five at the ninth hole (his 18^th of the day) just took the shine of a magnificent day for the 2023 Open winner and Keith Mitchell picked up a shot on his way in to close the gap to four. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:00.

Brian Harman -12 2.962/1
Keith Mitchell -8 12.523/2
Matt Wallace -7 24.023/1
Ryo Hisatsune -7 28.027/1
Sam Ryder -7 29.028/1
Patrick Cantlay -6 12.523/2
Daniel Berger -6 22.021/1
J. T Poston -6 24.023/1
-6 and 30.029/1 bar

Considering Harman cruised to victory at Hoylake two years ago, having led by five at halfway, that his closest challengers here aren't straight out of the top drawer, and that 21 of the 49 players to lead a PGA Tour event by four strokes at halfway this century went on to win (43%), the leader looks a very fair price at almost 2/13.00 but if we dig a little deeper, he's fairly priced and no more than that.

If we take the imperious Tiger Woods out of those stats, the percentage drops from 43% to 37% and although he was impressive when scooping up the Claret Jug, that's the only time Harman's converted a 36-hole lead on the PGA Tour, and he's previously led or been tied for the lead seven times in total.

He finished 12^th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year, having been tied at the top after two rounds, and on the first two occasions he held a clear lead he also failed to convert - finishing fourth at the 2018 Sony Open, having led by three at halfway, and sixth in the Travelers five months later, having led by one.

Last year's Texas Open winner, Akshay Bhatia, led by five at halfway, before eventually getting the better of Denny McCarthy in extra time, and between 2012 and 2015, three of the four clear leaders at halfway went on to convert but Austin Smotherman failed to convert a two-stroke lead here on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 and six of the ten clear leaders in this event have failed. And that includes the only other man to lead by four at halfway - Si Woo Kim in 2019.

Add in the fact that the wind is going to be more typically Texan over the weekend and Harman's clear lead doesn't look quite so commanding.

It will be much harder to score when the wind picks up and the greens dry out, but one or two players will find a way to carve out a score so Harman can't afford to tread too much water.

In his favour, at the halfway stage, Harman ranks first for Strokes Gained: Tee-to Green and SG: Approach (the two key metrics at previous renewals) and he also ranks first for Greens In Regulation and Putting Average so if he can find fairways over the weekend, even with his lack of length off the tee, he's going to take some catching.

Having backed Harman after round one at 20/121.00, I'm happy to sit on my hands for now and see if he can kick on but whether he's a great price to do so now is debatable.

09:30 - April 4, 2025

The opening round of the Valero Texas Open is all done and dusted and pre-event 160.0159/1 chance, Sam Ryder, leads Keith Mitchell by a stroke and the rest of the field by three after an impressive nine-under-par 63 which included just 21 putts!

The 35-year-old had withdrawn from the pro-am on Wednesday due to a twinge in his neck, but he was clearly unaffected yesterday afternoon.

Ryder one-putted 11 of his last 12 holes and seven of them for birdie!

"I was just trying to get a feel for how I could swing," Ryder said. "I think it helped me stay within myself today. I was just happy to be playing."

It's ten years since Ryder won on the Canadian Tour and eight since his sole success on the Korn Ferry Tour and he's never won on the PGA Tour, but the omens are good if recent history can be believed.

Corey Conners won the 2023 edition having led by two after round one and Akshay Bhatia took the title 12 months ago after an opening 63.

Although Ryder is bidding to be the third first round leader to win in-a-row, Conners was the first to achieve the feat since the tournament was first staged at TPC San Antonio 15 years ago and I'm in no rush to side with the leader at around 13/27.50.

Mitchell is the marginal favourite, but he makes no appeal either. Clearly on form, Mitchell was tied for the lead after round one of the Houston Open last week and at the Valspar Championship the week before but he finished 18^th in Houston and 54^th at the Valspar!

Sitting on -5 and four off the lead, the 2021 winner, Jordan Spieth, is trading at the same price as Tommy Fleetwood on -4 (11.521/2) and I much prefer the Texan to the Englishman at the prices but the one I'm playing after round one is the man in third place, Brian Harman.

The 2023 Open winner was a selection before the off 12 months ago at 45/146.00 so I'm happy to chance him at 20/121.00 this morning given he only trails by three after round one.

Pre-Event Selections:
Corey Conners @ 19.018/1
Keegan Bradley @ 42.041/1

In-Play Pick:
Brain Harman @ 21.020/1

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