The Punter's In-Play Blog: Odds-on Detry five clear at Scottsdale

• Scottsdale a tough place to convert

• Leader in search of his first PGA Tour win

• McNealy the value alternative to Detry

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07:25 - February 9, 2025

With only 18 holes to play at the Phoenix Open, the halfway leader, Thomas Detry, has extended his lead to five. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:15.

Thomas Detry -18 1.564/7
Rasmus Hojgaard -13 13.012/1
Jordan Spieth -13 13.525/2
Daniel Berger -13 18.535/2
Michael Kim -13 26.025/1
Maverick McNealy -12 30.029/1
Robert Macintyre -11 60.059/1
Taylor Moore -11 100.099/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -11 170.0169/1
Scottie Scheffler -10 27.026/1
-10 and 170.0169/1 bar

Since 1996, 34 players have led a PGA Tour event by five strokes with one round to go and 29 of them went on to win.

That's a predictably high 85% suggesting the leader is a very fair price at better than 1/21.50 but I'm in no rush to side with the 32-year-old Belgian, whose sole individual stroke play victory was on the HotelPlanner Tour nine years ago.

He was four clear with 18 to play on that occasion and he enjoyed holding a clear advantage as he went on to shoot 63 in round four to win by 12 but this won't be so straightforward.

Daniel Berger, at the Cognizant Classic in 2012, is the last five-stroke leader to get beat on the PGA Tour and the last player to lead by five, Hideki Matsuyama, at the FedEx St Jude in August last year, did eventually get the job done but not before he was caught on Sunday and Viktor Hovland, was matched at odds-on.

It's a wide margin but it's certainly not a foregone conclusion. Matsuyama is a major winner, and he had a wobble.

TPC Scottsdale isn't an easy place to lead either and we've seen three of the five players to lead by a wide margin here since 2012 get beat.

Rickie Fowler eventually scrambled over the line in 2019 (shot 74) having led by four, but Martin Laird (2015) and Danny Lee (2016) were both beaten, having led by three, and Spencer Levin finished third here in 2012, having led by six with 18 to play.

It's highly likely that at least one of the four players within five of the leader goes low today and if like Fowler, Laird, Lee and Levin before him, Detry shoots an over-par final round today, he's likely to get caught.

I'm happy to lay the leader modestly in both the outright and the Top 5 Finish market but those in search of an alternative to Detry, or a bet in the Without Detry market, may get a decent run out of the recent RSM Classic winner, Maverick McNealy, who fired an eight-under-par 63 yesterday.

It's tough to back up a low round but the 29-year-old will be bursting with confidence having got off the mark on the PGA Tour and having only just made the cut this week.

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15:05 - February 8, 2025

The 36-hole leader, Brandon Robinson Thompson, birdied two of the last three holes of round three at the Qatar Masters but he still trails Haotong Li by two with 18 holes to play. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 14:55.

Haotong Li -13 1.9310/11
Brandon Robinson Thompson -11 4.84/1
Matthew Jordan -9 14.013/1
Jayden Schaper -9 17.016/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -8 23.022/1
Martin Couvra -8 46.045/1
Minkyu Kim -8 60.059/1
-7 and 50.049/1 bar

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, Doha has been a great track for frontrunners over the years.

Ernie Els was five back with a round to go 20 years ago but every other winner has been within three strokes after 54 holes.

As many as 21 of the 25 previous Qatar Masters winners at Doha were within two of the lead and 15 of the 25 winners were in front after three rounds.

And Peter Uihlein was leading by a stroke when he won here on the Asian Tour at the start of December last year.

The experienced Li has led or been tied for the lead on various Tours 11 times previously and he's gone on to win on six occasions.

He won the BMW International Open in extra time in 2022 on the last occasion that he led with round to go on the DP World Tour, and he converted from the front at the prestigious Dubai Desert Classic back in 2018 so he's unlikely to be fazed by leading here.

I'd ordinarily look to take on an odds-on shot in-play but given the circumstances, odds of better than 10/111.91 look more than fair for the leader and I'm leaving the event alone now.

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09:00 - February 8, 2025

For the second day running, darkness stopped play before the scheduled rounds could be completed at the Phoenix Open and four groups need to return to TPC Scottsdale early today to catch up.

Will Chandler, who sits in tied 12^th on seven-under-par, has two holes of his second round left to play but he's the only one yet to get done that's inside the top 33 places and within eight of the lead so here's the current state of play with prices to back at 8:50.

Thomas Detry -12 5.79/2
Alex Smally -10 21.020/1
Michael Kim -10 23.022/1
Tom Kim -9 9.417/2
Jordan Spieth -9 16.531/2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -9 29.028/1
Justin Thomas -8 10.519/2
Keith Mitchel -8 36.035/1
Daniel Berger -8 40.039/1
Taylor Moore -8 40.039/1
Adam Hadwin -8 60.059/1
Scottie Scheffler -7 5.39/2
Rasmus Hojgaard -7 36.035/1
-7 and 75.074/1 bar

It's 12 years since Phil Mickelson won here wire-to-wire after opening the event with an 11-under-par 60 and since then, only two winners have been leading at halfway.

Rickie Fowler led by a stroke at halfway in 2019 and Scottie Scheffler was tied for the lead after 36 holes when defending the title in 2023.

Last year's winner, Nick Taylor, who had led by five after shooting 60 in round one, sat second at this stage but the man he beat in extra time, Charley Hoffman, had been six off the lead and Webb Simpson in 2017, and Tony Finau in 2020, also lost playoffs having been six adrift at halfway.

Having lost the playoff in 2017, it was Simpson that beat Finau in 2020, and he'd been trailing by five at halfway, and since then, we've seen Brooks Koepka win from four back at halfway in 2021 (he trailed by five after three rounds!) and Sheffler won here for the first time in 2022 having been tied for 44^th and nine off the lead at halfway!

Given the stats, I'm not in any sort of hurry to side with the leader, Thomas Detry, who still hasn't won on either the DP World or PGA Tour.

Detry did win on what is now called the HotelPlanner Tour nine years ago and he was four in front at halfway then (won by 12!) but this is the first time he's ever led an event by more than a stroke since.

He was one clear at halfway at the Dubai Desert Classic in 2021, when he finished ninth, and he's been tied at the top at halfway twice on the DP World Tour and twice on the PGA Tour since. He went on to finish second, ninth, fourth and 34^th.

He won the World Cup of Golf alongside Thomas Pieters in 2018 and he was beaten in a playoff at the 2021 Scottish Open but an individual title on a big stage still eludes him and I'm happy to swerve him.

Scheffler is close enough to win the title for a third time and he'd have been even closer had he putted better over the first two days given he currently ranks 43^rd for Putting Average and 116^th for Strokes Gained: Putting but this is definitely an event in which you can take a chance on a few outsiders from off the pace.

As highlighted in the preview, I like the link between this event and The American Express so I'm happy to chance Canadian, Adam Hadwin, who fired a 59 in round three of The American Express in 2017.

He went on to finish second in 2017 and he finished runner-up there again two years later, so I thought he was fractionally big at 60.059/1 given he trails by only four and I've also backed the defending champ, Taylor, who also finished second to Scheffler in 2023.

Course form stands up brilliantly here so the prolific Canadian looks very fairly priced at 90.089/1.

Trailing by six in a tie for 18^th, the 36-year-old has plenty of work to do but he's not too far back if recent history is to be believed.

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18:10 - February 7, 2025

We've reached the halfway stage of the Qatar Masters and Brandon Robinson Thomspon leads by two after a four-under-par 68 this morning that included this magnificent eagle at the par four 16^th.

Drive the green to 4ft. Hole the eagle putt. @BRTtoursauce making the par 4 16th look easy #CBQMasters pic.twitter.com/nYH7ut32Jh

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 7, 2025

For a long time, in-play pick, Daniel Brown, was the only man within three of the lead but a trio of afternoon starters edged ahead of the Englishman and Japan's Keita Nakajima drew alongside him. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 18:00.

Brandon Robinson Thomason -10 5.04/1
Haotong Li -8 8.27/1
Wenyi Ding -8 9.417/2
Minkyu Kim -8 22.021/1
Keita Nakajima -7 12.011/1
Daniel Brown -7 16.015/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -6 22.021/1
-6 and 29.028/1 bar

Although born on the Isle of Weight, BRT says he feels at home in Qatar and after his round today he said he'd played Doha 50 or 60 times and that there wasn't a shot here he hadn't played before.

Since the start of 2020, 25% of two-stroke leaders on the DP World Tour have gone on to win, suggesting he's fractionally big at around 4/15.00 but he's yet to win on the DP World Tour and last week's performance in Bahrain was a bit off putting.

I wasn't unduly bothered by his poor second round (shot 75), after he'd shot 61 in round one, and I was impressed by the way he bounced back in round three with a four-under-par 68 to trail by a stroke with 18 to play but his finish to the event was disappointing.

With three holes to play he was two-under-par for the round and on 14-under-par, a score that would have seen him contend the playoff, but bogeys at 16 and 18 saw him slip back into a tie for eighth.

The extremely promising Chinese youngster, Wenyi Ding, who won on the China Tour as a 16 year old amateur in 2021, and last year's Indian Open winner, Keita Nakajima, make more appeal than Haotong Li at a single-figure price but the one I like at this stage is the recent Mauritius Open winner, John Parry.

Looking at the weather forecast and the in-running stats at Doha, I don't think we can look too far down the leaderboard but the Englishman is close enough to mount a weekend challenge from four adrift.

The wind is predicted to ease as the day progresses tomorrow, advantaging the leaders and unless the wind has blown here, up with the pace is the place to be.

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10:20 - February 7, 2025

Yet again, the pace of play on the PGA Tour has resulted in the first round dragging on into day two.

Despite starting early, and just as the sun rose, three of the afternoon groups failed to finish their opening rounds when play was suspended due to darkness at the Phoenix Open.

Thomas Detry, who has teed off at his final hole, the par four 9^th, is the only player inside the top 15 yet to finish his opening round and he trails the early pacesetter, Wyndham Clark, by three.

Having finished only 73^rd last week when defending his Pebble Beach Pro-Am title, Clark has found his rhythm at TPC Scottsdale, and not for the first time.

Despite finding water off the tee on the drivable par four 17^th, Clark posted a bogey-free seven-under-par 64 and this is the second time he's led here after round one.

Clark shot 61 to lead by two back in 2020 but ended the week in a tie for 34^th.

He's led of been tied for the lead four times previously after round one on the PGA Tour and although he's yet to go on to win, he finished second at the Players Championship last year, having been tied after 18 holes, so he's trending in the right direction.

The pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, started poorly and he was matched at a high of 11.010/1 after playing the front nine in two-over-par but he turned things around in spectacular fashion at the par four 10^th with this eagle two from the sand.

HERE COMES SCOTTIE!

Scheffler drains a beautiful bunker shot from 104 yards out

Golf Channel pic.twitter.com/33qAwQzGsE

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 6, 2025

The world number one double-bogeyed the 12^th after finding the water off the tee but he bounced back again with a birdie at 13, an eagle at 15 and one more birdie at the 17^th.

He trails Clark by five, but he has a remarkable record when playing TPC Scottsdale in the morning (as he does today) and he still heads the market.

According to the TV coverage yesterday, Scheffler averages 65.5 when teeing it up in the AM so we should probably expect a bit of a charge today.

Having backed Scheffler before the off and given a slow start can be overcome here (see In-Play Tactics section of the preview), I'm going to sit on my hands for now and see where we are at halfway.

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19:50 - February 6, 2025

For the second week in-row, Brandon Robinson Thompson has ended the first round of a DP World Tour event in front.

Having led the Bahrain Championship by three last Thursday, after an 11-under-par 61, he's tied at the top at the Qatar Masters this week with Denmark's Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen but it's last week's winner, Laurie Canter, who trails by two that heads the market. As he did before the off.

This is the 28^th edition of the Qatar Masters and it's the 26^th time the tournament has been staged at Doha and so far, we've only seen three first round leaders or co-leaders go on to win - Henrik Stenson and Retief Goosen in 2006 and 2007 and Eddie Pepperell in 2018.

Canter is trading at 7.413/2, Neergaard-Petersen is an 8/19.00 chance and Robinson Thompson is currently 13.525/2 to back. Last week's fancy, Sam Bairstow, who sits tied for third alongside Andrea Pavan, is the only other man trading at less than 20.019/1.

I didn't get to see as much of today's first round as I'd have wanted to, but I did see Canter miss a couple of chances late on. And it was his ordinary putting that put me off before the off so I'm happy to continue to swerve him.

It's not easy to go back-to-back and with 29 players separated by just three strokes, taking short odds about anyone at such an early stage doesn't make much sense.

I have added one though - the in-form Englishman, Dan Brown, who contended up until halfway at Ras Al Khaimah before making the playoff in Bahrain last week.

I thought he was fairly priced at around 50.049/1 after his three-under-par 67 today.

Brown tees off early tomorrow and he's played nicely on Friday over the last two weeks. He went from tied 19^th to tied second in round two at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship with a 64 and he moved from 10^th to second last week with a 65. He sits tied for 12^th this evening.

Over at the Phoenix Open, Rasmus Hojgaard spent much of the morning in front but he finished his opening round with back-to-back bogeys and the early pace setter is Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who's on six-under-par with just three holes to play.

I'm not entirely surprised to see the pre-event 280.0279/1 chance playing well here given I backed my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Nick Dunlap, because he'd won The American Express as an amateur last year.

That event correlates really well with this one and Bez finished second to Dunlap.

My sole selection, the pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, has just started his opening round and all the action is live on Sky.

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Qatar Masters Pre-Event Pick:
Ivan Cantero @ 60.059/1

In-Play Picks:
Daniel Brown @ 48.047/1
John Parry @ 36.035/1

Phoenix Open Pre-Event Pick:
Scottie Scheffler @ 4.47/2

In-Play Picks:
Adam Hadwin @ 60.059/1
Nick Taylor @ 90.089/1

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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