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American Express form well worth considering
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Par 4 Scoring the key stat
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Read my Qatar Masters preview here
Tournament History
Originally called the Arizona Open and first staged 93 years ago, the Phoenix Open is one of the oldest events on the PGA Tour.
Recognized for its raucous crowd alongside the infamous par three 16th hole, the Phoenix Open is an enjoyable event that nearly always produces a tight and tense finish, with six of the last nine editions decided via a playoff.
Scottie Scheffler won his first PGA Tour title at this event three years ago, he made a successful defence in 2023, and he would have racked up the hattrick last year if he'd have putted better.
Having traded at long odds-on in-running, he missed three putts in-a-row inside six feet on Sunday and this one on 18 in round three certainly didn't help!
Venue
TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona
Course Details
Par 71, 7,261 yards
Hole averages in 2024 - 69.89
Best known for its barmy par three 16th hole, this Stadium Course was built specifically for this event and this year it hosts the event for the 37th time. It's a links style desert track with an exciting finish. The 15th is a reachable par five with water in play (averaged 4.73 last year) and the 17th is a drivable par four (averaged 3.75 12 months ago) but that too has water in play. And it nearly always has a say in who lifts the trophy.
The 17th is the hole that tripped up the 2019 winner, Rickie Fowler, nine years ago when he found the drink with his drive, having been matched at just 1.031/33 in-running, but it won him the event six years ago when Branden Grace found the water, having hit a low of 1.42/5.
Martin Laird also found the water in 2015 when leading and having been matched at odds-on but it was where Brooks Koepka sealed the deal four years ago when he holed out for an eagle two.
The course was tweaked and lengthened prior to the 2015 edition but low scores are still possible.
In wet conditions, last year's winner, Nick Taylor, kicked off the event with an 11-under-par 60 and that was fifth time someone had come within a stroke of shooting a round in the 50s at TPC Scottsdale.
The Bermuda greens are of an average size and they typically run fast at around 12 on the stimpmeter.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 14:15 on Thursday
Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2024 - Nick Taylor -21 280.0279/1 (playoff)
2023 - Scottie Scheffler -19 14.013/1
2022 - Scottie Scheffler -16 26.025/1 (playoff)
2021 - Brooks Koepka -19 50.049/1
2020 - Webb Simpson -17 24.023/1 (playoff)
2019 - Rickie Fowler -17 16.015/1
2018 - Gary Woodland -18 70.069/1 (playoff)
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama -17 12.011/1 (playoff)
What Will it Take to Win the Phoenix Open?
Length off the tee has proved slightly more important than accuracy at TPC Scottsdale.
The last ten winners have had an average Driving Distance ranking of 19.5 and an average Driving Accuracy ranking of 23.7 so neither metric is crucial.
Up until 2010 putting was the most important stat but as Justin Ray's tweet below from three years ago demonstrates, accurate iron play has been the been the key here for the last decade or so and that's been the case in the last couple of years too.
Scottie Scheffler ranked third for Greens In Regulation and first for both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach when defending the title in 2023 and the first four home last year ranked tied second, tied second, fifth and first for GIR.
Strong putting might not be as crucial as it once was here, but it never hurts and the playoff protagonists last year, Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman, ranked fourth and first for Putting Average and first and second for Strokes Gained: Putting.
The last three winners have played the par fours better than anyone else and Par 4 Scoring is always an important stat here given 11 of the last 12 winners have ranked inside the top-seven for Par 4 Scoring.
Is There an Angle In?
Anyone that enjoys desert golf must be considered and given the recent American Express, won three weeks ago by Sepp Straka, is also played in the desert and as part of the West Coast Swing, it's perhaps not surprising to see that a number of players have performed well at both events.
Phil Mickelson, Mark Wilson and Kenny Perry have all won both this event and The American Express fairly recently and a number of players have come close to winning both.
Jason Dufner, who won the American Express in 2016, was beaten in a playoff here by Wilson in 2011, the 2007 American Express winner, Charley Hoffman, has now lost two playoffs here, and Justin Leonard is another to win The American Express and finish second in Phoenix.
The 2022 playoff protagonists here, Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay, have both traded at odds-on in-running at The American Express (Scheffler in 2020 and Cantlay in both 2021 and 2022) and Cantlay, Jesper Parnevik, John Rollins and Ryan Palmer have all finished runner-up at both events.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
This hasn't been a great event for longshots lately and Taylor was the first big outsider to take the title since Kevin Stadler ten years earlier.

The cream tends to rise to the top here and we've seen plenty of high-class winners of late with lots of major champions taking the title.
Other than Taylor, who now has five PGA Tour titles to his name, Rickie Fowler, is the only winner in the last ten years who hasn't won a major.
This is a horses for courses track and already this century we've witnessed as many as seven players take the title at least twice.
Scheffler, in 2022 and 2023, and Hideki Matsuyama, in 2016 and 2017, like Johnny Miller in the 1970's, have won the event back-to-back and Arnold Palmer won the tournament three time in-a-row in the early 1960s.
Miller's successful defence in 1975 was an emphatic one given he won by 14 strokes but incredibly, he's not the only US Open winner to win by a double-figure margin. Steve Jones romped to an 11 shot win here in 1997!
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2024 - Nick Taylor tied for the lead 6.25/1
2023 - Scottie Scheffler led by two 2.285/4
2022 - Scottie Scheffler tied third - trailing by two 8.615/2
2021 - Brooks Koepka tied 7th - trailing by five 46.045/1
2020 - Webb Simpson solo 2nd - trailing by one 3.711/4
2019 - Rickie Fowler led by four strokes 1.422/5
2018 - Gary Woodland tied 8th - trailing by three 42.041/1
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama tied 3rd - trailing by four 8.415/2
In-Play Tactics
Taylor opened up last year's event with a sensational 60 in round one but don't panic if any of your picks start slowly this week, as they might not necessarily be down and out.
Scottie Scheffler was matched at a whopping 300.0299/1 when he trailed by nine strokes at halfway three years ago and he's far from the first to rally from off the pace...
Having sat outside the top-20 and five off the lead after round one, Brooks Koepka was matched at a high of 180.0179/1 in-running in 2021 and he was matched at 320.0319/1 when he won the event for the first time in 2015, when he trailed by seven strokes after rounds one and two.
And having ended the first round tied for 66th and ten off the lead, the 2020 winner, Webb Simpson, was matched at 250.0249/1.
Kyle Stanley was tied 33rd and five back after round one in 2012, Hunter Mahan was tied for 29th and six back after round one and seven adrift at halfway in 2011 and Kenny Perry sat 74th and seven back after round one in 2009.
Tayor was tied for the lead with Sahith Theegala at last year's weather affected renewal and Rickie Fowler was in front through 54 holes five years ago, but both could be described as fortunate winners in the end and TPC Scottsdale has been a graveyard for third round leaders in recent years.
Fowler opened up the 2019 renewal with rounds of 64, 65 and 64 to take a four-stroke lead into Sunday but he needed Branden Grace to mess up the 17th hole to eventually get him across the line, having double-bogeyed the fifth, tripled the 11th and bogeyed the 12th and Hoffman really should have got the job done 12 months ago, having been matched at just 1.091/11 when he led by two with three holes to play
Stress-free finishes are extremely rare at Scottsdale and Phil Mickelson, when six clear in 2013, is the only other 54 hole leader to go on to win in the last 14 years.
Plenty of players have messed up in front here recently and with five of the last nine editions going to extra time, this has been a great event to take on the leaders and short priced players on a Sunday.
Scheffler value to rack up the hat-trick
In what doesn't look an especially strong renewal, Scottie Scheffler simply must be backed at odds in excess of [3/1] to win the title for a third time.
In each of the last four years, the world number one has either won the event or looked like doing so.
Having missed the cut on debut in 2020, Scheffler contended strongly in 2021 before a poor final round saw him slip to a tie for seventh. But that was before he'd won on the PGA Tour and the finish was somewhat typical of him at the time.
He won his first PGA Tour title here in 2022, when he got the better of Patrick Cantlay in extra-time, and Scheffler defended the title comfortably 12 months later.
After a slow start, he got himself in-the-mix again last year and he traded at odds-on when he hit the front on Sunday but couldn't buy a putt on the back-nine and eventually finished third.
Since he got on top of his putting issues in March last year, he has a better than 50% strike rate, winning nine of his last 17 events. Last week's ninth place finish at Pebble Beach, in his first start of the year, should see him finely tuned and raring to go.
He clearly loves TPC Scottsdale and it would be a surprise if he wasn't there or thereabouts come Sunday afternoon.
Justin Thomas is the second favourite, and he has course form figures reading 17-MC-MC-17-3-3-13-8-4-12.
He arrives in fair form having finished second in the ZOZO Championship before Christmas and second in The American Express three weeks ago. But he's becoming increasingly frustrating to follow in-contention and last weeks tied 48th at Pebble was hardly encouraging.
The Sentry winner, Hideki Matsuyama is already a two-time winner of this event but since defending the title in 2017 and withdrawing after round one in 2018, he has only ordinary course form figures reading 15-16-42-8-29-22. He appears to have gone off the boil since his victory at Kapalua.
In addition to backing Scheffler, I'll have at least one pick for the Find Me a 100 Winner column here and that will be published either later today or tomorrow.