The Punter's In-Play Blog: Del Rey hits the front at Al Hamra

• Spaniard makes the most of his luck

• Armitage hanging on with 18 to play

• Front two clear by five

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13:40 - January 25, 2025

Despite missing fairways throughout the third round of the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, pre-event 140.0139/1 chance, Alejandro Del Rey, heads into round four with a two-stroke lead over Marcus Armitage, and it looks like a two-man race with 18 to play. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 13:30.

Alejandro Del Rey -16 1.684/6
Marcus Armitage -14 3.259/4
Shaun Norris -9 38.037/1
Jason Scrivener -9 65.064/1
David Ravetto -9 65.064/1
David Puig -8 46.045/1
-8 and 120.0119/1 bar

With only two players clear of the remainder, there's always a chance that both could flop in round four and we get a funny result but it's very hard to see anyone other than Del Rey or Armitage winning now given the two are five strokes clear of the rest.

There have been seven events here previously and all seven winners have been up with the pace with 18 to play.

Daniel Gavins trailed by two in third place after 54 holes two years ago but four of the last five winners were in front with a round to go and the other two course winners sat second.

Del Rey is clearly the man to beat, and he won the German Challenge from the front on the Challenge Tour back in 2022 but there are definitely reasons to think he can be taken on.

He really should have found water off the tee twice today and he found a decent lie in the desert on the numerous occasions that he missed the fairways by some distance.

It's undeniable that he made the very best of his luck (see below on 17) but logic would suggest he won't get away with being so wayward again tomorrow.

"Buenísimo"

Our leader Del Rey moves two-shots clear #RAKGolfChamps pic.twitter.com/kCXH2lCS44

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 25, 2025

Del Rey was tied for the lead after 54 holes at the Singapore Classic last year but shot 71 on Sunday to finish fourth, beaten by four, and given he's still in search of his first DP World Tour title, he may find it tricky to follow up today's brilliant bogey-free 66.

Odds in excess of 2/13.00 about Armitage look fair enough given it appears to be a two man race and if I hadn't got him onside earlier in the week, he'd be my selection with 18 to play.

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09:50 - January 25, 2025

Having traded at odds-on during round two (1.910/11) and having been tied for the lead with Lanto Griffin at the halfway stage of the Farmers Insurance Open, the pre-event favourite, Ludvig Aberg, hit the buffers in round three yesterday.

Said to be suffering with flu-like symptoms, the talented Swede started round three poorly and after he'd looked like he'd got back on track with birdies at six, seven and nine he bogeyed the par five 13^th before four-putting the 14^th hole!

A birdie at the par five finishing hole has given him hope but finishing with three consecutive birdies in round three, it's the veteran, Harris English, that shows the way with 18 to play. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:40.

Harris English -9 2.8615/8
Andrew Novak -8 5.59/2
Alderich Potgieter -7 10.519/2
K.H Lee -5 40.039/1
Matthias Schmid -5 42.041/1
Joel Dahman -5 60.059/1
Sungjae Im -4 23.022/1
Lanto Griffin -4 30.029/1
Ludvig Aberg -3 13.5
-4 and 50.049/1 bar

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, this is a tough place to get across the line and Patrick Reed, is the only third round leader or co-leader to win any of the last five editions.

Last year's winner, Matthieu Pavon, trailed by only a stroke but the two winners before him were five back with 18 to play and the forecast suggests we could witness plenty of drama again today.

It won't be quite as blowy as Thursday, but the wind is predicted to pick up again and the scoring is highly likely to be volatile.

The four-time PGA Tour winner, Harris English, holds the clear lead, ten years after losing a playoff to Jason Day, having been tied at the top with 18 to play here, and he's the very obvious and clear favourite.

This is the fourth time he's led or been tied for the lead after 54 holes and his record is nothing special.

After losing the playoff here in 2015, he won The Sentry in extra time (his fourth title) in 2021, having been tied for the lead after three rounds, but he finished only fourth at the FedEx St Jude in 2021, having led by two with 18 to play.

Given the weather forecast, English's average record in-contention, and the history of final round shenanigans at Torrey Pines, I'm more than happy to swerve the leader at less than 2/13.00.

Alone in second, Andrew Novak is one of only two players to go bogey-free in round three but he's hard to fancy given he's in search of his first PGA Tour title and given he didn't impress on Sunday at the Bermuda Championship in November. Having been tied for the lead through 54 holes, he shot 71 to finish second, beaten by three.

Alone in third, the huge hitting South African, Alderich Potgieter, is a fascinating runner. As highlighted yesterday, when looking at Johannes Veerman's chances at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, Potgieter traded at odds-on at the Nedbank just before Christmas and there's no doubt that the youngster has a massive future ahead of him, but he lost his way on Sunday there and this could just be a step too far too soon.

It's going to be interesting to see if any of the front three can shoot anything around par in the tough conditions. With a gap of three to the four players tied for third, that may well be enough, but this looks set up nicely for an off-the-pace winner.

It would be great to see in-play pick, K.H Lee, convert given he's the only player inside the top seven that was drawn North-South but with seven players on -4 and ten players on -3, if the front three do struggle, the event will be blown wide open and I'm happy to play three more...

R2 scoring → @FarmersInsOpen

75.232 = North (+3.232)
75.567 = South (+3.567)

AVGS THRU 2 ROUNDS
72.571 = North (+0.571)
74.026 = South (+2.026)

AVGS DY DRAW
145.784 = North-South
147.719 = South-North

CUT
145 [+1]

CUTS MADE BY DRAW
45 = North-South
25 = South-North https://t.co/tVtO0vucOH

-- Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) January 24, 2025

The two-time tournament winner, Jason Day, won't mind today's blustery conditions. He shot the best round of the day on Thursday - a three-under-par 69 around the North Course.

Alongside Day on -4, is Jhonnatan Vegas, who was on my shortlist for the Find Me a 100 Winner column so I'm more than happy to chance him at 100.099/1 and I'm hoping history will repeat itself with Keegan Bradley, who sits on -3.

As he was two years ago when he finished second to Max Homa, Bradley trails by seven with 18 to play and he may well put in another charge at a huge price.

Although he's won his last two PGA Tour titles from the front, he won his first five from off the pace.

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16:00 - January 24, 2025

Although this week's PGA Tour event - the Farmers Insurance Open - started on Wednesday, a day before this week's DP World Tour event, they've reached the halfway stage of the Ras Al Khaimah Championship before 36 holes could be completed at Torrey Pines.

Strong winds caused a suspension yesterday before darkness ended the day's play so the field will return this afternoon to finish their second rounds.

Yesterday was bizarre, with the North Course playing almost as tough as the South Course (at one point it was averaging higher). As a result, at the time of writing, the leaderboard is dominated by those who kicked the event off on the North Course on Wednesday.

Having completed their second rounds at the South Course, the first-round leader, Ludvig Aberg, and Lanto Griffin are tied at the top on -6 and Danny Walker, who sits alone in third, is one of only three men inside the top 13 who played the South Course on day one.

Given the chaos caused by yesterday's weather, I'm going to leave the event alone for now and concentrate on the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, where a strong finish has seen the first-round leader Marcus Armitage reassert himself at the top of the leaderboard.

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 15:50.

Marcus Armitage -12 4.3100/30
Alejandro Del Rey -10 6.86/1
Daniel Brown -10 10.09/1
Johannes Veerman -8 8.615/2
Haotong Li -7 22.021/1
Frederic Lacroix -7 30.029/1
Alexander Bjork -7 30.029/1
David Ravetto -7 34.033/1
Hamish Brown -7 42.041/1
Shaun Norris -6 29.028/1
-6 and 46.045/1 bar

With none of the pre-event market leaders in the shake up at halfway, this can't be described as a strong leaderboard but there's a distinct possibility that the winner is listed above.

The forecast predicts a bit of wind late, on both Saturday and Sunday, but nothing to write home about, so I suspect scoring to be fairly good. If that's the case, making up ground could be tricky.

Between the Challenge Tour and the DP World Tour, this is the eighth event to be staged at Al Hamra and only one of the previous seven course winners has been outside the top five places and more than two strokes adrift at halfway.

It's nice to see Matt Cooper's 100/1101.00 each-way pick, Hamish Brown, and both of my Find Me a 100 Winner selections, Daniel Brown and David Ravetto, in-contention. All three have a chance.

Armitage did a great job to break 70 today, after such a low round on Thursday, but his day was smartened up considerably by a lengthy birdie putt at 15, a chip-in birdie at 17 and this bit of brilliance at 18.

The sound. The swing. The spin.

This shot had it all. Marcus Armitage takes a two shot lead #RAKGolfChamps pic.twitter.com/L3teZtWKzm

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 24, 2025

This is the first time that Armitage has held a clear advantage through 36 holes of a DP World Tour event and it's going to be interesting to see how he fares.

He won a 54-hole Europro event 10 years ago, having led by a stroke after two rounds, but on the only occasions that he's been tied for the lead after 36 holes of a 72-hole event, he's been beaten.

He finished 13^th at the Challenge de Espana on the Challenge Tour in 2019 and he finished 12^th at the Cyprus Open in 2020 on the DP World Tour.

Although being up with the pace looks key, only two of the previous seven course winners were leading or tied for the lead at halfway and Armitage does look a bit vulnerable.

The big-hitting Spaniard, Alejandro Del Rey, is the clear second favourite but he's in search of his first DP World Tour title and the recent Nedbank winner, Johannes Veerman, is an obvious danger. But that title fell in his lap to a certain extent.

The likes of Jordan Smith, Francesco Laporta, Romain Langasque and Matthew Jordan all traded at 4/15.00 and below on Sunday. The highly talented young South African, Alderich Potgieter, was matched at a low of 1.422/5 before the American posted a score that the others failed to reach. I'm far from convinced he's one to go to war with.

Shaun Norris, who won the Alfred Dunhill Championship one week after Veerman had won the Nedbank, is vastly experienced and an obvious danger, despite trailing by six. But the one I like at a big price is last year's third, Frederic Lacroix, who's a very juicy price at 30.029/1 given he's no bigger than 20/121.00 on the High Street.

He won the Danish Golf Championship last August and the market appears to be underestimating him.

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11:15 - January 23, 2025

The pre-event favourite, Ludvig Aberg, has began the Farmers Insurance Open with a nine-under-par 63 around the North Course to lead by two and he's hardened up from 10/111.00 to less than 2/13.00 but he looks too short if the stats can be believed.

Since 1996, as many as 43 players have led or co-led after the opening round of the Farmers and Patrick Reed, in 2021, is the only one to go on to win.

Aberg is the 22^nd player to hold a clear lead after the opening day at the Farmers since 1996 and the previous 21 all failed to kick on and win.

The Swede is clearly a class act but odds of around 7/42.75 look very short and it looks even shorter when we look back to the only previous occasion that he led after round one.

Aberg was tied for the lead after round one of the Dubai Desert Classic in 2023 and he finished tied for 70^th!

Aberg has also played the easier of the two courses so that's against him too.

The North Course averaged 70.217 (1.783 under-par), whereas the trickier South Course averaged 72.487 (almost half a stroke over-par).

The 25-year-old may well kick on and play the South Course nicely today. He shot rounds of 72, 69 and 70 around there on debut last year but all things considered, he's too short for me and I've picked out three in-play picks that play the easier North Course in round two today - Hideki Matsuyama, Lee Hodges and K.H Lee.

Matsuyama has played in this event 11 times previously and yesterday was only the fifth time that he's kicked off the event on the tougher South Course. And yesterday's four-under-par 68 was his best knock there on day one by some distance.

He shot 71 there in 2017 and in the three editions between 2020 and 2022 he opened up with rounds of 73, 74 and 72 around the South Course.

He finished third here in 2019 when he shot 66-66 over the first two days (started on the North) and yesterday's opening knock could see him in-the-mix again this year.

Matsuyama is no bigger than 6/17.00 on the High Street so I was more than happy to take 8.615/2.

Hodges and Lee both shot five-under-par 67s around the South Course yesterday to sit tied for eighth and I've backed those tow at 24.023/1 and 60.059/1 respectively.

Over on the DP World Tour, the first round of the Ras Al Khaimah Championship is still ongoing and currently live on Sky, but nobody is going to get to the early pacesetter - Marcus Armitage.

Nicknamed The Bullet, Armitage has shot out of the blocks, firing a nine-under-par 63 before the wind picked up in the afternoon and he currently leads by four!

What an opening round @marcusarmitage1 sets the pace with an incredible 63 (-9) #RAKGolfChamps

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 23, 2025

Armitage has shortened up throughout the morning and I can see why.

There's only been seven events staged at Al Hamra previously (three on the Challenge Tour and four on the DP World Tour) and two first round leaders have gone on to win there already.

Armitage has led after round one once previously on the Challenge Tour and once on the DP World Tour and he finished third and sixth respectively, so he doesn't have a great record but four is a sizable lead given the forecast suggests a more benign afternoon tomorrow and odds of around 7/18.00 look very reasonable.

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Farmers Insurance Open Pre-Event Picks:
Stephan Jaeger @ 75.074/1
J.J Spaun @ 80.079/1 

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Pre-Event Picks:
Patrick Reed @ 23.022/1
Jordan Smith @ 36.035/1 

FI Open In-Play Picks:
Hideki Matsuyama @ 8.615/2
Lee Hodges @ 24.023/1
K.H Lee @ 60.059/1
Jason Day @ 55.054/1
Jhonnatan Vegas @ 100.099/1
Keegan Bradley @ 150.0149/1

RAKC In-Play Picks:
Marcus Armitage @ 8.27/1 
Frederic Lacroix @ 30.029/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Picks:
Justin Rose @ 120.0119/1 (FI Open)
Dan Brown @ 270.0269/1 (RAKC)
David Ravetto @ 290.0289/1 (RAKC)

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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