Farmers Insurance Open: Jaeger and Spaun The Punter's pre-event plays

• Wednesday start at Torrey Pines

• 54-hole leaders can be taken on

• Read my Ras al Khaimah Championship preview here

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Tournament History

Originally known as the San Diego Open and first staged in 1952, the Farmers Insurance Open is now in its 73^rd year. It's been played at Torrey Pines since 1968.

The event is played over two courses, with the entire field playing both the North and South Courses over the first two days before the weekend play is staged entirely on the tougher, longer, South Course.

The South Course was also the venue for the 2021 US Open, won by the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open winner Jon Rahm. There's a strong chance it will also be the venue for the relocated Genesis Invitational in three weeks' time.

For the third year in-a-row, the Farmers Insurance Open will start on Wednesday, a day earlier than most PGA Tour events, so the fourth and final round will be on Saturday.

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Venue

Torrey Pines, La Jolla, California

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Course Details

North Course, par 72, 7,258 yards, stroke average in 2024 - 69.5
South Course, par 72, 7,765 yards, stroke average in 2024 - 72.4

Both courses were designed by Billy Bell Jr. and they both opened in 1957.

The South Course was extensively revamped in 2001, by Rees Jones; after it had been awarded the 2008 US Open, and it was tweaked again ahead of the 2021 renewal.

The North Course had always differed quite significantly to the South but it underwent a renovation of its own, by Tom Weiskopf, prior to the 2017 renewal and the scoring differential between the two narrowed considerably after that.

In the two renewals prior to the North Course overhaul, there was a 3.57 strokes differential in the bad weather of 2016 and a difference of 3.29 in 2015 but in the eight years since the course changes, we haven't seen a differential that wide - although the gap appears to be widening again (see below).

The largest differential occurred in 2021 but it's worth bearing in mind that the US Open was staged on the South Course in June 2021 and preparation for the toughest of the four majors will have been underway when this event was staged.

Differential between the North and South Courses since the North's renovation

2017 - 1.49
2018 - 1.5
2019 - 1.89
2020 - 1.96
2021 - 3.21 (US Open year)
2022 - 1.36
2023 - 2.18
2024 - 2.9

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 17:00 on Wednesday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Matthieu Pavon -13 230.0229/1
2023 - Max Homa -13 28.027/1
2022 - Luke List -15 95.094/1 (playoff)
2021 - Patrick Reed -14 36.035/1
2020 - Marc Leishman -15 80.079/1
2019 - Justin Rose -21 19.018/1
2018 - Jason Day -10 26.025/1 (playoff)
2017 - Jon Rahm -13 55.054/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Farmers Insurance Open?

Nothing really jumps out statistically here and unsurprisingly for a championship course, most winners rank fairly-highly in all or almost all categories.

The South Course is long so distance off the tee is often advantageous but it's far from essential.

The 2022 winner, Luke List, ranked 12^th for Driving Distance and four of the 10 winners before him ranked first or second for DD but four of the last five winners have ranked between 34^th and 55^th so a lack of length can be overcome.

We haven't seen any winner top the Greens In Regulation stats since Bubba Watson way back in 2011, last year's shock winner, Matthieu Pavon, only ranked 25^th, and Patrick Reed ranked a remarkable 63^rd four years ago (as well as only 39^th for Strokes Gained: Approach) but 16^th was the worst any of the previous six victors had ranked for GIR.

Greens In Regulation was a key stat in 2023, with the first six home ranking third, 32^nd, second, first, seventh and 13^th and Strokes Gained: Approach is another metric to concentrate on.

Last year's winner, Pavon ranked third for SG: Approach, the 2023 winner, Max Homa, topped the rankings and six of the last seven winners have ranked inside the top five for SG: Approach.

When Jason Day won the title for the first time a decade ago, his Putting Average ranking was only 33^rd and List only ranked 28^th three years ago but they're the exceptions.

Pavon only ranked 12^th but five of the last nine winners have ranked fourth or better, and ten of the last 13 winners have ranked inside the top-ten for Putting Average.

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Is There an Angle In?

Up until last year, Jon Rahm, who won the Farmers in 2017, had been the only winner of the event to be playing Torrey Pines for the first time since it moved there back in 1968, so Pavon's victory was very much unexpected and even if we disregard seven-time winner, Tiger Woods, course form has been a huge indicator.

The 2023 winner, Homa, had missed five cuts here before his victory, but he'd also finished ninth and 18^th, in 2020 and '21, and although he was a big outsider three years ago, Luke List had finished 12^th in 2018 and 10^th in 2021.

Reed had finished sixth 12 months before he won and the 2020 winner, Marc Leishman, had twice finished runner-up in the event previously. And they were far from the first to give us an indication that they liked the place...

Scott Stallings hadn't made a cut here before winning 11 years ago but he followed up his win with a second 12 months later.

Brandt Snedeker was winning here for a second time when he got lucky with the draw in foul conditions in 2016 and Jason Day has also won the event twice.

Justin Rose struggled to get to know the place but he had been fourth and eighth in the two years prior to his 2019 victory and Ben Crane, Nick Watney and even shock 2004 winner, John Daly, had all finished inside the top-10 in at least one of their previous two tournament appearances, so despite the 2017 and 2024 results, think very carefully before backing someone with little or no previous at the track.

Glen Abbey, which has hosted many a Canadian Open, provides far and away the strongest course correlation but unfortunately, we haven't had an event staged there since 2018.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

To varying degrees, three of the last six winners have been relatively unfancied, starting the tournament at 80.079/1 or bigger, but there have only been four winners in the last 30 years that wouldn't be described as top-class.

It had taken Pavon 182 attempts to finally get off the mark on the DP World Tour, just three months before he became the first Frenchman to win on the PGA Tour when he won here last year, and at the age of 37, and after years of trying, Luke List was finally getting off the mark for the very first time on the PGA Tour when he took the title three years ago.

The 2014 winner, Scott Stallings, was something of an anomaly and although a multiple PGA Tour winner, Ben Crane couldn't be described as top-class either but every other winner going right the way back into the last century has been straight out of the top drawer.

I'd think very carefully about backing a raft of outsiders, although following the withdrawals of both Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, this is one of the weakest renewals in years.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Matthieu Pavon - T2nd - trailing by one 8.615/2
2023 - Max Homa - T4th - trailing by five 22.021/1
2022 - Luke List - T19th - trailing by five 290.0289/1
2021 - Patrick Reed -tied for the lead 4.131/10
2020 - Marc Leishman - T7th - trailing by four 48.047/1
2019 - Justin Rose led by three strokes 1.4840/85
2018 - Jason Day T4th - trailing by three 8.88/1
2017 - Jon Rahm T13th - trailing by three 55.054/1

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In-Play Tactics

This is one of the rare events where a fast start is far from essential and in the last ten years we've seen winners sit tied for 63^rd, 77^th, 90^th, 95^th and 113^th after round one.

Reed, four years ago, was the first - first round leader to go on to win since 1996 and Tiger Woods (2008 and 2013) and Justin Rose six years ago, are the only halfway leaders to convert.

Like Rose, Woods was never headed in 2008 and 2013, once he'd hit the front at halfway, and he was also in front after round three in 2003 but other than Reed in 2021, the only other third round leaders to go on to win this century are Phil Mickelson in 2000 and John Daly in 2004, and he needed to win a three-man play-off.

The last eight pre-round figures are listed above but prior to that, Brandt Snedeker was a 200.0199/1 shot when he sat tied for 27^th, trailing by six, with a round to go in 2016 and Stallings was three back and trading at in excess of 30.029/1 11 years ago. Snedeker trailed by seven strokes after 54 holes in 2012 (when Kyle Stanley lost having led after the first three rounds and having been matched in-running at 1.011/100), and Nick Watney had been five back three years earlier.

This is most definitely an event in which to take on the 54-hole leaders and Sundays offer up trading opportunities aplenty.

Last year's third round leader, Stephan Jaeger, was matched at just 1.645/8 during round four (finished tied third) and I backed the runner-up, Keegan Bradley, at 270.0269/1 with a round to go two years ago. He made for a great trading vehicle given he was matched at a low of 4.94/1 and two other players were matched at a lot shorter than they'd began the day trading at in 2023...

Hideki Matsuyama hit a low of 5.24/1 having been matched at 800.0799/1 before the final round and although he didn't go quite as low as Matsuyama or Bradley, Rickie Fowler was matched at a low of 14.527/2 having been trading at around 260.0259/1 after round three.

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Market Leaders

The high-class Swede Ludvig Aberg makes for a very obvious favourite following last year's ninth place finish on debut and his fifth at The Sentry at the start of the year but I'm in no rush to back him at around 10/111.00.

The impressive Sentry winner, Hideki Matsuyama, is next up in the betting and with event form figures reading 16-MC-MC-33-12-3-45-53-30-9-13, he looks highly likely to contend given his current form. He was also 26^th at the US Open in 2021 and he'd be my idea of the most likely winner.

Sungjae Im missed the cut at The American Express last week but that was down to a disastrous Thursday when he found water on three occasions.

Prior to that, he finished third to Hideki in The Sentry and, although Im missed the cut here 12 months ago, on his two previous visits he finished sixth and fourth, so he commands plenty of respect.

The two-time winner Jason Day is a tempting price at 29.028/1 but I've picked out two with equally obvious claims at more than twice that price.

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Jaeger and Spaun the pre-event plays

Stephan Jaeger has shortened up from the 75.074/1 that was available on Monday, and I can see why.

As highlighted above, he traded at odds-on 12 months ago here. Since winning his first PGA Tour title at the Houston Open in March last year, where he impressively held off a bunch of players on Sunday that included Scottie Scheffler, he's also contended strongly at a couple of events recently.

The 35-year-old German finished second at the inaugural Black Desert Championship in October and he traded at odds-on last time out in the Sony Open (hit a low of 1.715/7) where a poor drive off the 16^th tee in round four cost him dearly.

J.J Spaun, who finished ninth here on debut back in 2017, also traded at long odds-on at the Sony 1.211/5 before a bogey at the penultimate hole on Sunday, and a par at the par five finishing hole, cost him a place in the playoff.

He picked himself up and sat third after round one and sixth at halfway at last week's American Express before a disappointing weekend saw him slip to a tie for 29^th.

Since his debut top 10 finish eight years ago, the 34-year-old Californian hasn't figured here so that's a negative and there's every chance that the last two weeks could take its toll. But I thought he was just big enough for a small wager at 80.079/1.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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