The Punter

Ras Al Khaimah Championship: Smith can contend again at 35/1

Golfer Thorbjorn Olesen
Thorbjorn Olesen after last year's impressive victory

The DP World Tour moves from Dubai to Ras al Khaimah for the fourth edition of the Ras al Khaimah Championship. Read Steve's comprehensive preview ahead of Thursday's start here...


Tournament History

Following the GB & I team's facile victory in the Team Cup, and Tyrrell Hatton's success in the Dubai Desert Classic, the DP World Tour remains in the Middle East for the fourth edition of the Ras al Khaimah Championship.


Venue

Al Hamra Golf Course, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE

Course Details

Par 72, 7410 yards
Stroke Average in 2024 - 70.27

Designed by Peter Harradine, the Al Hamra Golf Course was new to the DP World Tour three years ago, but it was used three times on the Challenge Tour between 2016 and 2018.

Al Hamra was the venue for the twice only staged Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge in 2016 and 2017 and it also hosted the Challenge Tour Grand Final in 2018.

Jordan Smith beat Jose-Filipe Lima by a stroke with a 20-under-par total here in 2016 before Sweden's Jens Dantorp got the better of Poland's Adrian Meronk in extra time 12 months later, after the pair had finished on -15 in the second and final edition of the Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge.

AL HAMRA 2024 1.jpg

And at the 2018 edition of the Challenge Tour Grand Final, Adri Arnaus shot 17-under-par to finish the week a stroke in front of Victor Perez.

This is only the fourth edition of the Ras al Khaimah Championship, but it will be the fifth time this venue has been used on the DP world Tour in four years.

A week after the inaugural edition of this event three years ago- won by Nicolai Hojgaard - Ryan Fox won the only edition of the Ras al Khaimah Classic.

Al Hamra is a typical desert track with wide fairways, water is in play on eight holes and the greens are Sea Isle Paspalum.


Weather Forecast


TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 8:00 on Thursday


DP World Tour Course Winners with Pre-event Prices

2022 - Nicolai Hojgaard -24 40.039/1
2022 - Ryan Fox -22 55.054/1 (Ras al Khaimah Classic)
2023 - Daniel Gavins -17 430.0429/1
2024 - Thorbjorn Olesen -27 21.020/1


What Will it Take to Win the Ras Al Khaimah?

We've only had four events staged here on the DP World Tour but statistical patterns are emerging and the 2023 result of this event already looks like an outlier.

The first two course winners, Nicolai Hojgaard and Ryan Fox, overpowered Al Hamra and their stats were very similar - although they played the par fours and fives very differently...

Hojgaard was able to drive three of the par four greens (the first, the fifth and the 13th) and he could also reach the four par fives in two which is why he was able to play the long holes in 15-under-par. Only Sean Norris (-12) got anywhere near to that and nobody else in the field bettered -10.

As many as four players played the long holes in -13 the following week but Fox constructed his score on the par fours. He played the par fives in only seven-under-par, but he played the par fours in 14-under and that was six better than anyone else in the field that week!

Both men won easily - Hojgaard by four strokes and Fox, who won wire-to wire, by five and it was a similar story last year with Thorbjorn Olesen winning easily by six.

Olesen only ranked 22nd for Driving Distance but the runner-up Rasmus Hojgaard, ranked third and the monstrously long Frenchman, Frederic Lacroix, finished third.

Olesen ranked number one for both par four and par four scoring.

In contrast to the other three winners, the 2023 winner, Daniel Gavins, only won by a stroke and he only ranked 55th for DD, although he did still play the long holes better than anyone else in the field and like the other three course winners, he putted nicely, ranking first for Putting Average, Putts Per Round and SG: Putting.

The other three winners have ranked seventh, fourth and third for PA.

Given the first three course winners ranked only 72nd, 60th and 64th for Driving Accuracy (Olesen ranked seventh) power is more important than accuracy off the tee.

Gavins only ranked 49th for Greens In Regulation whereas Hojgaard and Fox ranked sixth and seventh, and Olesen hit more greens than anyone else.


Is There an Angle In?

There isn't an abundance of evidence to suggest that form at other Harradine-designed tracks is worth exploring in detail just yet but for the record, he was also responsible for Abu Dhabi Golf Club - which hosted the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship until 2021, as well as the first two editions of the Team Cup - and Doha Country Club, which hosts the Qatar Masters.

Form at those two tracks is an obvious plus and last year's winner, Olesen, has finished runner-up at both but he telegraphed his wellbeing before winning here at both the Dubai Invitational and the Dubai Desert Classic in the two weeks prior.

He'd only finished eighth and 21st but he'd sat ninth and third with a round to go and form at any of the desert tracks is obviously a big plus. As too is form at this track.

Although he'd missed the cut on his first two visits, Olesen had finished fourth here the year before he won and although Gavins had missed the cut on his only previous visit to Al Hamra, Zander Lombard, who finished tied for second behind him, had finished third in the Ras al Khaimah Classic behind Fox the year before, and Adrian Meronk, who now plays on the LIV Tour, has course form figures reading 2-57-6-4 after he was beaten by two strokes by Gavins.

Ryan Fox Ras Al Khaimah Champ.jpg

The course was only used three times in total on the Challenge Tour, but course form held up nicely on that Tour too.

Victor Perez finished seventh and second here, Jose Filipe Lima was sixth and second, Max Orrin seventh and sixth, and Jack Senior finished 11th and sixth.

Romain Langasque finished sixth in 2016 and fourth two years later, but he seems to have forgotten how to play the course as he's missed his last three cuts here on the DP World Tour.


Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2022 - Nicolai Hojgaard - leading by three 1.564/7
2022 - Ryan Fox - leading by six 1.422/5
2023 - Daniel Gavins - solo third - trailing by two 11.010/1
2024 - Thorbjorn Olesen - leading by four 1.321/3


In-Play Tactics

If it's not too windy, up with the pace is usually the place to be in the desert and that's generally been the case in the last five events here.

Olesen trailed by seven after round one but rounds of 62 and 63 on Friday and Saturday saw him take control, Ryan Fox and Adri Arnaus both won wire-to wire and Hojgaard and Gavins were in the van throughout.

Gavins sat tied for 11th and four off the lead, but he trailed by one at halfway and by two through 54 holes and Hojgaard trailed by only two strokes after rounds one and two and he was three in front with a round to go.

The back nine is around a stroke harder than the front nine and it's particularly tricky around the turn. The hardest two holes on the course at the last four events here have been the 12th and the 10th and the six hardest holes are all encountered after the par five 8th.


Market Leaders 

It isn't hard to make a case for the favourite, the defending champions Thorbjorn Olesen, given just how easily he won last year, but this is his first time defending a title and it's never easy.

He was in-contention at last week's Dubai Desert Classic before a poor third round saw him slip out of the running and I'm happy to swerve him here.

Olesen wins Ras Al Khaimah Championship.jpg

Patrick Reed is the narrow second favourite over Japan's Keita Nakajima, the course winner, Ryan Fox, Tom McKibbin, and the recent Nedbank champ, Johannes Veerman. Reed is the one I like best towards the head of the market.

The 2018 US Masters winner is the class-act in the field, and he arrives in very fair form.

After several placed efforts on the LIV Golf Tour, the 34-year-old Texan shot 59 in round three of the Hong Kong Open to assume command at the end of November. Following his victory there, he's finished 13th in Qatar, 17th at the Saudi International, and 10th last week at the Dubai Desert Classic, where he signed off with a five-under-par 67.

He's making his debut this week at Al Hamra and his slight lack of length off the tee is a mild concern, but he's finished second at the Dubai Desert Classic previously and third at the DP World Tour Championship, so he clearly enjoys the region. He looks a fair price at anything in excess of 20/121.00.


Smith can contend again at 35/1

I can't be described as a massive Jordan Smith fan. In fact, he's someone I'll often take on in-running, but I can't ignore him here at such a big price.

The 32-year-old Englishman has only won twice on the DP World Tour and that's far fewer than his talents deserve. But this looks like a great chance for him to make it three and he looks over-priced at 36.035/1.

Having won the second of his two Challenge Tour titles here in 2016, he finished second to Nicolai Hojgaard in the inaugural edition of this event in 2022, so although he's performed poorly here in each of his last two appearances, it's a course that clearly fits his eye.

He finished down the field in the Dubai Desert Classic last week, after starring in the winning GB& I team in the Team Cup the week before, so he comes in slightly under the radar. The low expectation might not be a bad thing.


*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter


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