The Punter

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Tight at the top at the Sony

Steven Rawlings
12 Jan 2025

Golfer JJ Spaun — JJ Spaun in action in round three

There's just one round to go at the Sony Open so our man's back with his final in-running thoughts for the week ahead of round four in Hawaii...

A great event to trade in round four
Nine players within two at the top
54-hole leaders well worth taking on

09:25 - January 12, 2025

Pre-event 240.0239/1 chance, JJ Spaun, has hit the front in the Sony Open with just 18 holes to play. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:25.

JJ Spaun -13 5.79/2

Eric Cole -12 9.417/2
Stephan Jaeger -12 9.417/2
Patrick Fishburn -12 11.010/1
Keegan Bradley -11 11.010/1
Harry Hall -11 15.014/1
Brian Harman -11 17.016/1
Nico Echavarria -11 17.016/1
Nick Taylor -11 20.019/1
Lee Hodges -11 26.025/1
Lucas Glover -10 40.039/1
Russell Henley -10 19.018/1
Maverick McNealy -10 22.021/1
Gary Woodland -10 70.069/1
Ryan Gerard -10 70.069/1
-9 and 75.074/1 bar

Going all the way back to 1996, the 2005 winner, Vijay Singh, who trailed by four in sixth place, is the only winner of the Sony Open in the last 29 years not to have been inside the top-five places with a round to go but as highlighted in the Preview, this has been a fabulous event in which to take on odds-on shots in round four - and 54-hole leaders have a poor recent record.

The late Grayson Murray was tied for the lead with a round to go before winning 12 months ago but three other players traded at odds-on on Sunday and Waialae is not an easy place to convert from the front if the last few years are anything to go by.

As many as five of the last seven 54-hole leaders have been beaten and prior to Murray, the previous four third round leaders all traded at very short odds before losing.

Since 2020, we've seen different players trade at as low as 1.374/11, 1.331/3, 1.111/9 and even 1.061/18 before getting beat so it might just be worth staying up late tonight to do a bit of trading.

Fabian Gomez, who trailed by four in fifth place in 2016, was trading at 55.054/1 before round four and that's the biggest any recent winner has traded at after three rounds but two men have gone close from further back so we can't completely rule out an off the pace winner.

Having been matched at over 900.0899/1, James Hahn sat tied for 14^th and seven adrift through 54 holes in 2018 but he shot 62 on Sunday to get into a playoff and he was matched at as low as 1.21/5 before losing to Patton Kizzire at the sixth extra hole.

I backed course specialist, Russell Henley, at this stage last year at 70.069/1 when he trailed by five and he really should have won. He was matched at as low as 1.728/11 when he gave himself a 13-footer for a birdie at the 14^th hole which would have given him a two-stroke lead but he lost his way after missing that but that shouldn't have been a surprise.

Henley led by five with just nine to play here in 2022 and he was matched at just 1.061/18 but he played the back nine in one-over before losing a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama.

With such a bunched leaderboard, we're highly unlikely to see a straightforward victory and five of the last nine renewals have gone to extra time.

This is the fourth time that Spaun has led a PGA Tour event with a round to go and he has a very mixed record.

He finished 10^th at the Shriners in 2017, having been tied for the lead in 2017 and he won his one and only title at the Texas Open in April 2022, having been tied at the top with 18 to play, but he finished 42^nd at the St Jude Championship just five months later, having led by a stroke after 54 holes.

The US Ryder Cup captain, Keegan Bradley, who was beaten in extra time here last year, is an interesting contender with a round to go but I've got two in-play picks - Nick Taylor and Lee Hodges - alongside him in a tie for fifth, as well as my Find Me a 100 Winner selection, Nico Echavarria, so I'm going to leave the event alone for now and cheer those three on.

I'm on holiday for a week now so unfortunately, there won't be De-brief tomorrow but keep an eye out later for next week's previews - The American Express on the PGA Tour and the first Rolex Series event of the year on the DP World Tour, the Dubai Desert Classic, where Rory McIlroy will be bidding to win the event for a third year in-a-row and for the fifth time in total.

10:20 - January 11, 2025

As many as six men were tied for the lead after round one of the Sony Open but only one of the six, Denny McCarthy, remains in front, and he's been joined at the top by course debutant, Patrick Fishburn. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 10:10.

Denny McCarthy -10 6.611/2
Patrick Fishburn -10 10.09/1
Eric Cole -9 12.011/1
Kensei Hirata -9 32.031/1
Paul Peterson -9 42.041/1
Sepp Straka -8 14.5
JJ Spaun -8 29.028/1
Lee Hodges -8 36.035/1
Alex Smalley -8 46.045/1
Zach Johnson -8 60.059/1
Tom Kim -7 14.5
Russell Henley -7 15.014/1
Brian Harman -7 36.035/1
Nico Echavarria -7 38.037/1
-7 and 50.049/1 bar

Since course specialist, Russell Henley, won here from the front 12 years ago, as many as 16 men have led or co-led at halfway and only two of them went on to win.

Justin Thomas, who was five clear by this stage in 2017, and Matt Kuchar, who led by a stroke at halfway six years ago and I'm in no rush to back the two in front this time around.

With improving course form figures reading 48-32-24 and an under-the radar appearance at The Sentry last week, where he finished 46^th, McCarthy has the correct profile for a Sony Open winner, but the 31-year-old is yet to win on the PGA Tour and his sole success as a pro came via a playoff on the Korn Ferry Tour more than six years ago.

Denny McCarthy at the Sony Open 2025.jpg

He didn't do an awful lot wrong when losing the Memorial Tournament in a playoff in 2023 and he lost in extra time at the Valero Texas Open last year so he's getting closer and he's the worthy favourite but he's not for me at less than 6/17.00.

Fishburn is even harder to fancy given the poor record of course debutants here and that he didn't have a pipe opener in The Sentry last week.

As highlighted in the preview, 17 of the last 26 Sony Open winners, and eight of the last 11, have played The Sentry the week before they won here, and Henley (12 years ago) is the only course debutant to win the event in the last 29 years.

One could argue that those facts are irrelevant now that Fishburn finds himself in front at halfway, but he too is seeking his first win on the PGA Tour, and he looks short enough at around 9/110.00.

If I was going to take a chance on someone playing here for the first time, that didn't play last week, tournament invite, Kensei Hirata, looks a better proposition at more than three times the price of Fishburn.

The 24-year-old Japanese won four times on the Japan Tour last year and he could be being overlooked given he trails by just a stroke with 36 holes to play.

With 17 players within three of the lead and 27 within four, it's clearly still a very open event and I should probably leave it alone for now but I'm happy to add two more for tiny stakes.

Lee Hodges, who trails by two in a tie for sixth, look a big price at 36.035/1 given he's no bigger than 25/126.00 on the High Street and I've also backed Brice Garnett at 100.099/1.

He's been quietly getting to grips with this venue in recent years and that's not entirely surprising given his two PGA Tour victories have come at fiddly coastal tracks in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

The 41-year-old finished 48^th at The Sentry last week and on the four occasions that he's made it through to the weekend here, he's moved forward.

He shot 67-69 11 years ago, 68-66 in 2019 to go from 66^th to 33^rd, 67-67 in 2021 to edge from 35^th to 32^nd and on his last visit, two years ago, he shot 68-64 to finish 21^st, having sat 46^th at halfway.

Currently tied for 11^th and just three adrift, this is far and away the closest he's been at halfway here so he could just be overlooked at a triple figure price given he won on the PGA Tour as recently as March last year.

09:45 - January 10, 2025

The wind picked up fractionally in the afternoon on day one of the Sony Open yesterady but there wasn't a huge differential in the scoring between the morning and afternoon starters.

The AM wave averaged 68.83 and (so far) the PM starters have averaged 68.92.

As is so often the case on the PGA Tour, with the pace of play characteristically slow, the first round isn't quite complete, with three groups still on the course when play was suspended due to darkness, but only one of the six players tied for the lead, last week's first round leader, Tom Hoge, began the tournament yesterday afternoon.

Tom Hoge holes it for eagle!

It's his second eagle of the round and moves to T1 @SonyOpenHawaii. pic.twitter.com/VYvDnbw3FW
-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 10, 2025

Dave Tindall's 55/156.00 first round leader fancy, Harry Hall, is one of the six tied at the top but with as many as 25 players within two strokes of the lead and 64 players within four, the tournament is as hard to assess now as it was before the off.

The pre-event favourite, Hideki Matsuyama, still heads the market after a three-under-par 67 yesterday afternoon, and he's trading at around 11/112.00 - the same price he was before the off.

This is a very different tournament to last week's Sentry, were the in-running trends, in favour of the frontrunners, are strong and patience is required.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, the last five winners all sat outside the top 20 after the opening round and given the condensed early leaderboard, it would be no surprise to see that run extend to six, although on the last occasion we saw six tied at the top after round one here, in 2010, two of the six, Ryan Palmer and Robert Allenby, went on to finish first and second.

I should probably sit on my hands for now and see what today brings but I was happy to have a small wager on Canada's Nick Taylor, who sits on -4.

With four PGA Tour titles to his name, and two in the last two years, the 36-year-old is prolific enough to chance at a venue he clearly likes.

He was on the shortlist for the Find Me a 100 Winner column, but his numbers weren't great at The Sentry last week, so I left him out but I'm happy to chance him at 75.074/1 this morning.

He's finished seventh here in each of the last two years and he finished 11^th in 2021 after shooting 62 in round two to lead by two at halfway.

I haven't got involved in the Team Cup on the DP World Tour, but Matt Cooper has the lowdown on the event here and it's currently live on Sky.

Whether you're a fan of match play or not, it's nice to see the Abu Dhabi Golf Club on our screens again, having been the venue for the Abu Dhabi Championship up until 2021, and if nothing else, we should get a few clues ahead of next week's Dubai Desert Classic.

I suspect this event will prove a decent warm up for the first Rolex Series event of the year at the Emirates Golf Club.

Pre-Event Picks:
Hideki Matsuyama @ 12.011/1
Austin Eckroat @ 46.045/1
Cam Davis @ 60/161.00 each-way (Sportsbook)

In-Play Picks:
Nick Taylor @ 75.074/1
Lee Hodges @ 36.035/1
Brice Garnett @ 100.099/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Picks:
Nico Echavarria @ 110.0109/1
Patton Kizzire @ 210.0209/1
David Lipsky @ 330.0329/1