Sony Open: Three Off the Tee at Waialae

• Sentry start a big plus

• Trading drama expected on Sunday

• Read Andy Swales' course and current form stats piece here

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Tournament History

The Sony Open dates all the way back to the 1920s and it's been a regular on the PGA Tour since 1965.

It's the first full field event of 2025 and for those that weren't involved in the two recent limited field events - the Hero World Challenge in December and last week's Sentry - it's the first chance of tournament action since the RSM Classic back in the middle of November.

This year's edition will be a particularly poignant renewal as the 2024 winner, Grayson Murray, committed suicide on May 25.

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Venue

Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, Hawaii

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Course Details

Par 70, 7,044 yards
Stroke index in 2024 - 68.82

Designed by Seth Raynor, Waialae is a short, tree-lined, wind-affected course with small Bermuda Greens. Water is in play on just three holes and the greens usually run at around 11 on the Stimpmeter.

There were a couple of changes to the course prior to the 2019 renewal. A fairway bunker was removed on the 10^th and the green was doubled in size, and the par five finishing hole had its green increased in size by approximately a third.

As you'll see below, with the list of winners, scores can vary quite considerably depending on how penal the rough is and more importantly, how strong the wind blows.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 17:00 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Grayson Murray -17 1000.0999/1 (playoff)
2023 - Si Woo Kim -18 70.069/1
2022 - Hideki Matsuyama -23 21.020/1 (playoff)
2021 - Kevin Na -21 120.0119/1
2020 - Cameron Smith -11 65.064/1 (playoff)
2019 - Matt Kuchar -22 48.047/1
2018 - Patton Kizzire -17 85.084/1 (playoff)
2017 - Justin Thomas -27 17.016/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Sony Open?

Last year's winner, Murray, ranked 14^th for Driving Accuracy and when Matt Kuchar won here five years ago, ranking fourth for DA, it was interesting to hear how important he thought it was to be straight off the tee when comparing this course to El Camaleón in Mexico (more on that below).

"Both courses are very tight, very demanding driving golf courses. That would probably be the biggest similarity."

Power is certainly not an important prerequisite here and I'd favour accuracy over length off the tee but given the 2021 winner, Kevin Na, only ranked 49^th for DA, the 2020 champ, Cam Smith, ranked only 41^st, the 2018 winner, Patton Kizzire, ranked 56^th, and Justin Thomas broke the PGA Tour's 72-hole scoring record when he won here eight years ago ranking only 60^th for DA, being arrow-straight is clearly not that vital.

The three winners between 2020 and 2022 ranked 20^th, 26^th and 36^th for Greens In regulation but that was a very irregular little spell given the last two winners have ranked second, the 2019 winner, Kuchar, ranked first and 19 of the last 23 have ranked 12^th or better for that stat.

Murray ranked only 30^th for Putting Average and 29^th for Strokes Gained: Putting but as with all low scoring events, holing lots of putts is usually the key to victory and the five winners between 2017 and 2021 had a PA ranking of sixth, second, fifth, second and first.

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Is There an Angle In?

Following Hideki Matsuyama's victory at the weekend, as many as seven players this century have won both this event and last week's Sentry and a number of other venues on the PGA Tour correlate nicely with Waialae too.

The Seaside Course in Sea Island, Georgia, which hosts the RSM Classic, Harbour Town Links in South Carolina, home of the RBC Heritage, and El Camaleón, the venue for the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico up until 2022, are all short seaside tracks with tricky, grainy greens and I'd also consider both TPC Southwind and Colonial Country Club, venue of the Charles Schwab Challenge, as similar types of test.

The first and second here in 2021, Kevin Na and Chris Kirk (who boosted The Sentry link last year), have both won at Colonial.

Hideki Matsuyama, Fabian Gomez and David Toms have all won here and at TPC Southwind so that looks a strong link but it's form at El Camaleón - the former home of the World Wide Technology Championship - that needs the closest inspection.

The first and second in Mexico nine years ago, Pat Perez and Gary Woodland, have both been placed here before and even though the World Wide Technology Championship was only staged 16 times in total at El Camaleón, five players have won at both venues (Kuchar, Kizzire, Russel Henley, Mark Wilson and Johnson Wagner), and it could have easily been six or seven...

The 2023 winner here, Si Woo Kim finished third at El Camaleón in 2017 and the 2013 World Wide Technology Championship winner, Harris English, has a good record here. He finished third in 2015 and fourth in 2014, having traded at a low of 1.674/6. And English is also another former winner of the St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind.

Zach Johnson is one of the six players to have recently won this event and last week's Sentry and that's always a good place to start. Back in 2015, Zach offered some insight as to why The Sentry winners do well here when he said that although the tracks are very different in style, the winds are very similar, and he felt they played alike as a result.

Along with the trade winds, another similarity between the two venues is the green speeds. Kapalua's greens are huge and undulating whereas the ones here are small and flat, but both sets of greens run slowly in comparison to most PGA Tour venues.

The similar greens' speed, being familiar with the trade winds, and enjoying the advantage of a very recent outing all go a long way to explain why those that played the week before at Kapalua have such a strong record here.

As many as 17 of the last 26 Sony Open winners, and eight of the last 11, have played The Sentry the week before they won here and it's worth bearing in mind that in the events staged between 2012 and 2015, The Sentry finished on either a Monday or a Tuesday, which was quite a disadvantage - especially in 2013 when Russell Henley won here (hadn't played in The Sentry). Bad weather meant the event was reduced to three rounds and it didn't finish until the Tuesday!

Murray hadn't played in The Sentry last year but the three men that traded at odds-on before getting beat here had - Henley, and the two beaten playoff protagonists, Keegan Bradley and Byeong Hun An.

An appearance last week is the clearest pointer we have and they don't have to have played brilliantly either.

Justin Thomas won both events in consecutive weeks in 2017 and Gomez had finished sixth in The Sentry before winning here a year earlier but prior to their successes here, Na had finished 38^th in The Sentry, Kuchar 19^th, Kizzire 15^th and Matsuyama 13^th so a high finish isn't essential. And it's worth remembering that all that happened before the field sizes were expanded in Kapalua last year.

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Other Pointers to Consider

Murray had won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 and five of the previous nine winners had won earlier in the wraparound PGA Tour season, so a recent victory looks a big pointer.

Murray was a 1000.0999/1 chance 12 months ago and historically, this has been an excellent event for big-priced winners, but previous course experience has still been almost essential.

Like the 2018 winner, Kizzire, Murray had missed the cut here in his only previous visit and Russell Henley won here 12 years ago in his first PGA Tour event, but those three are the only winners here since 1996 not to have played Waialae Country Club at least twice previously and Henley was the first winner in his 20s here since Paul Stankowski way back in 1997 so look to the more experienced stars.

Course experience looks important, but strong course form isn't vital. In addition to Murray and Kizzire, Gomez's course form figures read MC-67-MC prior to his 2016 victory and when Jimmy Walker took the title for the first time, in 2014, his figures read MC-61-32-MC-4-MC-26. Smith had somewhat modest course form figures in 2020, reading MC-27-18-22, and when Johnson Wagner took the title in 2012, his previous course form numbers read 34-MC-MC-MC-MC.

Prior to his victory two years ago, Kim had course form figures reading 4-58-MC-25-55 and Matsuyama's course form figures read MC-MC-MC-MC-27-51-12-19 prior to his victory three years ago.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Grayson Murray - tied for the lead 6.611/2
2023 - Si Woo Kim tied fifth - trailing by three 10.519/2
2022 - Hideki Matsuyama solo 2nd - trailing by two 3.55/2
2021 - Kevin Na tied second - trailing by two 8.27/1
2020 - Cameron Smith solo 2nd - trailing by three 5.49/2
2019 - Matt Kuchar led by two strokes 1.684/6
2018 - Patton Kizzire T2nd - trailing by one 5.14/1
2017 - Justin Thomas led by seven strokes 1.141/7

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In-Play Tactics

Patience might be needed here if you're going to try and catch the winner in-play.

We've seen five players win wire-to-wire here this century, so frontrunners have a very fair record, but the last five winners have all sat outside the top 20 after the opening round.

This used to be a venue at which a fast start was extremely beneficial but in addition to the last five winners, Kizzire sat tied for 20^th and four back after round one in 2018 and two years earlier, Fabian Gomez was tied for 68th, six off the lead, and matched at 900.0899/1 after round one.

Whether we concentrate on the early pacesetters or scan a bit further down the leaderboard after round one, one thing was can rely on here is late drama.

Murray was tied for the lead with a round to go last year but as already mentioned, three others traded at odds-on on Sunday and Waialae is not an easy place to convert from the front if the last few years are anything to go by.

As many as five of the last seven 54-hole leaders have been beaten and prior to Murray, the previous four third round leaders all traded at very short odds before losing.

A year after Brendan Steele was matched at just 1.111/9 in-running before getting beat by Smith in extra time in 2020, he was matched at a low of 1.374/11 before getting caught and passed by Na in 2021 and having led by five with just nine to play in 2022, Henley was matched at just 1.061/18 in-running!

The 2023 third round leader, Hayden Buckley, didn't do an awful lot wrong but he was caught late on by Kim, who chipped in for birdie at the par three 17^th, and he was matched at a low of 1.331/3.

It's a great event to trade on a Sunday but the leaders go out very late UK time so placing a cheeky lay bet at skinny odds on the 54-hole leader is another way to play the tournament and it may just provide a pleasant surprise on Monday morning for those not intending to stop up late.

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Three Off the Tee at Waialae

I'm more than happy to take a small chance on last week's winner, Hideki Matsuyama, who won this event three years ago.

Both Ernie Els and Justin Thomas have won at Waialae a week after winning The Sentry and Matsuyama has a habit of holding his form.

He's only once before won back-to-back tournaments, back in 2016, but he looks a very fair price given he's won three of his last 18 events and they he played so brilliantly last week.

This is far from a strong renewal, and I was happy to take a double-figure price.

The recent World Wide Technology winner, Austin Eckroat, is a player on the rise.

The 25-year-old, who turns 26 on Sunday, got off the mark on the PGA Tour at the Cognizant Classic in March last year - an event that's been won by several Sony Open winners - and he himself fared well here 12 months ago, leading at the halfway stage following rounds of 65 and 66.

He fell away over the weekend to finish 42^nd but he's a battle-hardened two-time PGA Tour winner now and should he be in-the-mix at halfway this time around, I suspect we'd witness a far different outcome.

That performance 12 months ago wasn't a massive surprise given he'd finished 12^th on debut 12 months earlier, having sat sixth at halfway, and after a very decent debut at The Sentry last week, where he finished tied for 15^th, I was quite surprised to see him matched here at as high as 50.049/1.

Australia's Cam Davis has plenty of course form and although his numbers only read MC-9-31-27-32-30, this looks like a venue at which he can shine.

He kicked off last year's edition with a 62 to lead by two after round one so we know he can play the course, and he arrives in fair form this time around having finishing 13^th at The Sentry last week despite opening with level-par 73 on Thursday and picking up a two-stroke penalty for playing the wrong ball at the 15^th hole in round four.

He's an industry-wide best of 60/161.00 with eight places up for grabs on the Sportsbook and I thought that looked tasty.

I'll be back tomorrow or Wednesday with the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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