The Punter's In-Play Blog: Keegan fairly priced at Waialae

• Sentry winner, Chris Kirk, still in the mix

• Bradley the man to beat with a round to go

• Former winner chanced at a big price

15:35 - January 14, 2024

Pre-event 65.064/1 chance, Keegan Bradley, equalled the best round of the day on Moving Day at the Sony Open yesterday - a seven-under-par 63 - to end the day tied for the lead with rank outsider, Grayson Murray, who shot a six-under-par 64.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 15:30.

Keegan Bradley -14 3.1511/5
Grayson Murray -14 6.611/2
Sam Stevens -13 9.617/2
Chris Kirk -11 9.89/1
Byeong Hun An -11 14.013/1
Matthieu Pavon -11 29.028/1
Taiga Semikawa -11 36.035/1
Ben Silverman -11 46.045/1
Emiliano Grillo -10 46.045/1
Kurt Kitayama -10 46.045/1
Austin Eckroat -10 60.059/1
Troy Merritt -10 85.084/1
Russell Henley -9 70.069/1
-9 and 95.094/1 bar

Si Woo Kim trailed by three after three rounds last year before going on to win by a stroke over the 54-hole leader, Hayden Buckley (who had led by two) and Fabian Gomez was a 55.054/1 chance through 54 holes when he sat fifth and four off the lead before beating the third round leader, Brandt Snedeker, in a playoff here eight years ago but up with the pace is usually the place to be.

Back in 2018, James Hahn was beaten in extra time by Patton Kizzire having trailed by as many as seven strokes through 54 holes, so it is possible to come from way off the pace here but it's highly unusual.

The six winners before Kim all sat first or second with a round to go and Kim, Gomez, and Vijay Singh, who like Gomez, trailed by four before taking the title in 2005, are the only winners this century not to within two of the lead with a round to go.

With that in mind, the leader looks a very fair price at around 2/13.00 given the calibre of his nearest rivals.

As a two-time PGA Tour winner last year, Bradley should be feeling confident enough going into the final round and although he's never really convinced me in-contention, it's difficult to crab his record.

Bradley has led or co-led after three rounds five times previously and after four seconds he finally finished in front at the Travelers Championship in June last year. That was the first occasion that he'd broken 70 in round four when leading and his two-under-par 68 was enough to see him win by three.

With pre-event pick, Chris Kirk, still in the mix and Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Kurt Kitayama, sitting tied for ninth and four off the lead, I've got a couple of players to cheer on and I'm adding one more from five back - Russell Henley.

The 2013 winner should have won the title again two years ago so he's a real course specialist and he's very capable of going super-low and winning from off the pace.

Henley has won both the Houston Open and the Jacksonville Open on the Korn Ferry Tour from off the pace and he's shot numerous low rounds around Waialae including a 62 two years ago and four rounds of 63.

If there is to be any messing about by the leaders, Henley may well be the man to benefit.

15:25 - January 13, 2024

There's just one round to go at the Dubai invitational and Tommy Fleetwood has edged past Rory McIlroy at the top. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 15:15.

Tommy Fleetwood -15 2.526/4
Rory McIlroy -14 2.3211/8
Thorbjorn Olesen -12 15.014/1
Jordan Smith -11 34.033/1
Thriston Lawrence -11 34.033/1
Zander Lombard -11 55.054/1
-10 and 70.069/1 bar

Fleetwood was matched at a low of just 1.910/11 during round three before Rory finished nicely and although he leads by a stroke, the Englishman look vulnerable.

I often play Fleetwood when he's a big price from off the pace but I'm not convinced by his temperament when bang in contention, although incredibly, this is the first time he's led after three rounds of a DP World Tour event in almost ten years!

Fleetwood has only ever led or been tied for the lead after three rounds four times previously and he has a 50% strike-rate.

He won the Kazakhstan Open on the Challenge Tour way back in 2011, having led by two through 54 holes, and he won a playoff at the now defunct Johnie Walker Championship two years later, having been tied for the lead after three rounds, but he finished only third at both the Volvo Golf Champions event in South Africa ten years ago (another defunct event) and at the Honda Classic on the PGA Tour four years ago, having led both events by a stroke.

Playing with Rory will probably help him relax tomorrow but at the prices on offer now, given he only trails by a stroke, I'm inclined to favour the world number two.

I toyed with backing my Rory lay back but instead I've now also layed Fleetwood in the hope that the two men get wrapped up in competing against each other tomorrow.

One of the front two kicking on and winning is by far the most likely outcome but there are some quality players on their coattails so I'm happy to go in to round four opposing them both.

Over at the Sony Open, three men are tied at the top at the halfway stage but with as many as ten players tied for fourth and just a stroke back, it's a tricky event to entangle. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 15:20.

Byeong Hun An -9 8.615/2
Austin Eckroat -9 18.535/2
Carl Yuan -9 27.026/1
Chris Kirk -8 9.617/2
Cam Davis -8 18.017/1
Kurt Kitayama -8 22.021/1
Stephan Jaeger -8 23.022/1
Taylor Montgomery -8 23.022/1
Keith Mitchel -8 24.023/1
Ben Griffin -8 26.025/1
Stewart Cink -8 36.035/1
Matthieu Pavon -8 38.037/1
Grayson Murray -8 70.069/1
Harris English -7 21.020/1
Keegan Bradley -7 26.025/1
Akshay Bhatia -7 30.029/1
Andrew Putnam -7 32.031/1
Patton Kizzire -7 55.054/1
Taiga Semikawa -7 100.099/1
-6 and 34.033/1 bar

This looked like a wide-open event before the off and with just two rounds to go it doesn't look any easier to call with as many as 19 players within two strokes at the top of the leaderboard.

Justin Thomas, Matt Kuchar and Russell Henley have all converted halfway leads or in the case of Kuchar, a co-lead, in the last seven years but three of the last four winners have trailed by at least five strokes so there are no crystal-clear patterns to follow.

With so many players so close to the lead, I suspect it will be tough for someone to come from off the pace but both Ben Griffin and Kurt Kitayama demonstrated yesterday that it is possible to make up plenty of ground here. Both men followed up level par 70s on Thursday with eight-under-par 62s yesterday.

Given how tough it looks, and with my sole pre-event pick, Chris Kirk, and my Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Kitayama, both just one off the lead at halfway, I'm more than happy to keep the powder dry for now and see what round three brings.

16:15 - January 12, 2024

Having led the inaugural staging of the Dubai Invitational by a stroke after round one, the pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, was matched at a low of just 1.282/7 after he began round two nicely.

Pars at the opening holes were followed by back-to-back birdies at three and four and anyone that had followed the stats and opposed him after day one (me included), was beginning to think they may have erred.

Rory looked to have carried on serenely from where he'd left off but after a run of three straight pars, the world number two gave us layers heart when he found water twice on the par three eighth!

With the benefit of hindsight, he must be wondering why he played such an aggressive shot off the tee when he had the whole world to aim at right of the flag and he was somewhat unlucky from the drop zone when his second attempt to find the dancefloor also found water when the wind switched after he'd hit the ball.

Shot five, his second from drop zone, found the green but after two putts it all added up to a quadruple-bogey seven and having looked like strolling to victory, it was game on.

To his credit, after drifting all the way out to above 2/13.00, Rory recovered nicely on the back-nine, and he heads into the weekend leading by two after this birdie two at the par three 16th.

With the wind drying the track, and with slightly trickier pin positions, scoring wasn't as easy as it had been on Thursday.

As many as nine men shot 67 and below on Thursday (Rory shot 62) but just four achieved the feat on Friday and the 66s shot by Jeff Winther and Joost Luiten were the lowest rounds of the day.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:10.

Rory McIlroy -10 1.9420/21
Paul Yannik -8 14.527/2
Jeff Winther -8 22.021/1
Tommy Fleetwood -7 11.010/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -7 17.016/1
Thriston Lawrence -7 23.022/1
Jordan Smith -7 26.025/1
Zander Lombard -7 34.033/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -6 27.026/1
-5 and 44.043/1 bar

After his recovery on the back-nine, Rory is back trading at odds-on and he's clearly the one they all need to beat but his record when leading at halfway isn't great.

Rory has led by at least a stroke at halfway 16 times previously and he's gone on to win only seven times.

The last occasion that he held a clear lead at halfway was at the Scottish Open in July last year when he rallied late on - on Sunday to win by one but on the previous four occasions there had been daylight between him and his rivals after 36 holes, he'd failed to convert.

If we look at his record when leading or co-leading it gets slightly worse. He's led or been tied for the lead at halfway 28 times in total and he's gone on to win on just 11 occasions.

With all that in mind, having layed him after round one at 1.758/11, I'm happy to remain against him, although I'd be more reticent to lay him now at getting on for even money with just two rounds to go.

I'm going to leave things as they are and see what tomorrow brings but I haven't given up on my pre-event pick, Adrian Meronk, who shot 67 today to close within five, and Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Ewen Ferguson, is an interesting contender at around the 100.099/1 mark given he too sits tied for 10th and just five off the lead.

Blustery conditions hindered the field on day one of the Sony Open yesterday, but they didn't hamper Australia's Cam Davis who fired an impressive eight-under-par 62 to lead by two.

He heads the market over my sole selection, Chris Kirk, who sits tied for seventh after a bogey-free four-under-par 66.

Play was suspended with a few groups yet to finish their opening rounds yesterday and I'm going to take a deeper look tomorrow at the halfway stage but for the record, anyone wishing to get involved now, the last four winners were all outside the top-20 places after round one and three of them trailed by five strokes.

That suggests we should be scanning a fair way down the leaderboard and that may well be the case but the stats also suggest that the leader can't be readily dismissed.

Davis is trading at around the 5.85/1 mark and that looks a reasonable price given as many as five first round leaders have gone on to win this century. Justin Thomas, who won wire-to-wire back in 2017, was the last to achieve the feat.

15:25 - January 11, 2024

At around 10/34.33, I thought Rory McIlroy looked a bit too short before the off at the Dubai Invitational but anyone that got stuck in at that price is on good terms with themselves now given the world number two has kicked off the DP World Tour's first tournament of the year with an immaculate nine-under-par 62 around the Dubai Creek Resort Course.

The decision to make now is whether he's a back or a lay at odds-on with still three rounds to go and it's the latter for me.

Rory leads Germany's Yannik Paul by two strokes and Thriston Lawrence sits alone in third with a group of quality players trailing by four and five strokes so it's a decent enough lead and if he continues to play as well as he did to today, he'll most definitely win. But that's quite a big if.

Rory has ended the first round with a clear lead as many as 17 times previously, but he's only gone on to win on three occasions.

He won the 2009 Dubai Desert Classic, the 2011 US Open and the Open Championship in 2014 wire-to-wire but since his success at Hoylake almost ten years ago, he's zero from six when he's ended the first day leading by at least a stroke.

If we include co-leads after round one, it doesn't get any better. Rory has been tied for the lead or leading 34 times previously and he's only gone on to win five times. And he's zero from 15 over the last ten years!

We do have to bear in mind that this is a limited field event with only 60 pros in the line-up but even so, given Rory's record he's a lay for me at around 1.75/7.

This week's PGA Tour event, the Sony Open, which I've previewed here, is yet to begin so there's still time to check out Dave Tindall's First-Round Leader tips here or his each-way thoughts here.

It's a wide-open event given it's now 24.023/1 the field, with the Open champion, Brian Harman, and the English course debutant, Tyrrell Hatton, joint favourites.

That pair trade narrowly shorter in price than another English course debutant, Matt Fitzpatrick, and the original jolly, Ludvig Aberg, who's also playing Waialae for the first time and as highlighted in the preview, that could be a sizable disadvantage given course debutants have a dreadful record.

Dubai Invitational Pre-Event Pick:
Adrian Meronk @ 21.020/1

In-Play Trade:
Rory McIlroy layed @ 1.758/11
Tommy Fleetwood layed @ 2.486/4

Sony Open Pre-Event Pick:
Chris Kirk @ 28/129.00 (Each-Way - Sportsbook)

In_play Pick:
Russell Henley @ 70.069/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Pablo Larrazabal (2us) @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
Kurt Kitayama (2us) @ 100.099/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
Nico Echavarria (1u) @ 360.0359/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1