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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Can odds-on Aberg get off the mark?

Steven Rawlings
19 November 2023

Mackenzie Hughes on his way to shooting 60 on Saturday

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Pre-event favourite, Ludvig Aberg, has hit the front at the RSM Classic but is he too short to win his first PGA Tour title at odds-on?

Aberg and Cole looking to get off the mark
Former winners in-the-mix again
Canadian value ahead of round four

12:10 - November 19, 2023

Not much happened early on in round three of the RSM Classic but in perfect conditions, the birdies and eagles flowed on the back nine-nine, as the leading pack separated themselves from the rest.

The 2019 winner, Tyler Duncan, birdied three holes in-a-row from the 14th to post a bogey-free eight-under par that sees him sit fourth with a round to go and the 2016 champ, Mackenzie Hughes, eagled 15 and birdied 16 and 17 to post a ten-under-par 60, which sees him sitting third with a round go.

The 32-year-old Canadian, who also finished second here two years ago, had a putt on 18 from inside 17 feet to post 59, and Eric Cole, who had begun round three tied for second, shot a seven-under-par 28 on the back-nine but his nine-under-par 61 wasn't enough to see him hit the front!

Leading by a stroke at the start of the day, Sweden's Ludvig Aberg was still only three-under-par for the day when he stood on the 13th tee, but he finished in style, playing his last six holes in six-under-par to match Cole's 61, and he heads into round three trading at odds-on with his first 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 12:00.

Ludvig Aberg -20 1.9210/11
Eric Cole -19 3.7511/4
Mackenzie Hughes -18 8.27/1
Tyler Duncan -17 20.019/1
Sam Ryder -15 75.074/1
Denny McCarthy -14 120.0119/1
Greyson Sigg -14 300.0299/1
-13 and 410.0409/1 bar

Aberg is clearly a class act, it really is only a matter of time before he gets off the mark on the PGA Tour, and seven of the nine men to hold a clear lead with a round to go at this event previously have gone on to win but I'm in no rush to side with the Swede at odds-on.

I'm not convinced it can be viewed as a negative, and he may well have learnt plenty form the experience, but on the only previous occasion he's led at this stage, at the BMW Championship at Wentworth in September, he shot 76 in round four to finish tied for 10th.

That was his first start following his maiden DP World Tour title at the European Masters when he caught and passed the 54-hole leader, Matt Fitzpatrick, on Sunday and his first event since he was picked for the European Ryder Cup team so the poor showing on Sunday can easily be excused.

After a fortnight off following his top-ten finish in Mexico, Alberg will be fresher this time around but in the benign conditions, he's going to have to be right on his game as there'll be no let up in the scoring and there's also a bit of added pressure that may also effect the man in second, Eric Cole.

It's widely accepted that Aberg and Cole are not only attempting to win their first PGA Tour titles today, they're also in a two-man race for the Arnold Palmer Award - the award given to the PGA Tour's top rookie.

It's far from certain that that's enough of a distraction to affect either man but it's slight negative and it's just enough of a reason to think the value may sit with the two previous winners, Hughes, and Duncan.

I was happy to chance those two modestely at 8.415/2 and 20.019/1 respectively.

13:40 - November 18, 2023

It's not often we witness something happening during a big event like this week's DP World Tour Championship that almost completely overshadows the 'who's going to win' narrative but that was the case today when Matt Wallace birdied every hole on the back-nine.

WHAT HAVE WE JUST SEEN! @mattsjwallace birdies EVERY hole on the back nine and signs for a third round 60!#DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/dEsDUQgJra
? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 18, 2023

Having trailed by seven in a tie for 21st at halfway, the Englishman was matched at a high of 410.0409/1 today but with others faltering late on, he'll now head into round four with a one-stroke lead. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 13:35.

Matt Wallace -16 5.04/1
Viktor Hovland -15 3.02/1
Tommy Fleetwood -15 4.216/5
Jeff Winther -14 22.021/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -13 17.016/1
Ewen Ferguson -13 32.031/1
-12 and 32.031/1 bar

The Earth Course is playing easier than ever after Thursday night's rain. The scoring has been super-low, and Wallace (and others) have demonstrated that ridiculously low scores are possible so we can't completely rule out an off-the-pace winner but it's also very hard to imagine that all the leaders will shoot sufficiently high rounds in the conditions to be caught and passed.

There have been 14 previous renewals of the event at the Earth Course and three strokes, and fifth place, is the furthest any winner has sat with a round to go, and as many as nine of the 14 winners have been leading or tied for the lead with a round to go.

That's great news for Wallace but as always, backing up a really low score is notoriously tough to do, and if we add in his poorish record when leading or co-leading with a round to go, he starts to look opposable.

Wallace repeatedly converted from the front on the Alps Tour but since he converted a three-stroke lead at the Open de Portugal to win his first DP World Tour event six years ago, he's led or been tied for the lead through three rounds eight times and he's gone on to win just once - at the Indian Open in 2018. And on the last six occasions he's led or been tied for the lead he's been beaten.

Tommy Fleetwood holed an absolute bomb for eagle on the par five 14th after an iffy run of holes and he finished a bit disappointedly with a bogey at 17 and a par at the easy par five 18th. He'll be alongside Wallace in the final two-ball and he looks well worth taking on.

58ft for eagle and into second place @TommyFleetwood1 #DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/fLlzBtPAIH
? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 18, 2023

Fleetwood often gets a bit shaky in the heat of battle and he's most definitely a better prospect from off-the-pace so the one I really like is Viktor Hovland.

Playing alongside Denmark's Jeff Winther, who shot an eight-under-par 64 today, despite a pair of bogeys, I can see the Norwegian coasting to victory tomorrow and odds in excess of 2/13.00 look very good.

I backed him yesterday modestly at 4.216/5 but I've gone in again at 3.259/4 and that's at least half a point too big. He's 13/82.63 with the Betfair Sportsbook and even that's too big too.

The halfway leader, Nicolai Hojgaard, may well bounce back after his disappointing bogey-bogey finish but all things considered, Hovland at anywhere around 2/13.00 represents a cracking bet.

Over on the PGA Tour, the pre-event 14.5 favourite, Ludvig Aberg, leads the RSM Classic by a stroke with two rounds to go and at just a smidgen under 3/14.00, he's a very fair price to get off the mark.

I thought he was short enough before the off given how good an event the RSM Classic has been for outsiders. The last seven have been priced at 55.054/1 or bigger and five of them went of at a triple-figure price but it's hard to argue Aberg's too short now given 12 players have held a clear lead at the RSM Classic previously and seven have gone on to convert. And they have a very strong recent record with the last six all going on to win.

A dozen occurrences isn't a huge sample size but it's still a decent strike-rate. Although we've also witnessed some remarkable comeback wins here.

Last year's winner, Adam Svensson, who's back in-the-mix again this year, was tied for 43rd and seven back at halfway before he shot 62-64 to win by two so an off-the-pace winner is definitely a possibility and I'm happy to continue to sit on my hands and see what today brings.

14:20 - November 17, 2023

After a tough first day and plenty of overnight rain, the Earth Course played more than two-and-half strokes easier today than it had on Thursday, and we witnessed some big moves at the DP World Tour Championship.

A possible back injury irritated the pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, and after a really disappointing level-par 72, the world number two sits ten off the lead in a tie for 34th and seemingly out of the reckoning.

South Africa's Thriston Lawrence shot the best round of the day, an eight-under-par 64, but after a slow start to his second round (two-over-par through four), it's Nicolai Hojgaard who shows the way at halfway. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 14:10.

Nicolai Hojgaard -11 4.84/1
Viktor Hovland -9 4.216/5
Tommy Fleetwood -9 6.86/1
Thriston Lawrence -9 28.027/1
Antoine Rozner -9 30.029/1
Jens Dantorp -9 60.059/1
Matthieu Pavon -8 38.037/1
Zander Lombard -8 70.069/1
Tyrrell Hatton -7 16.015/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -7 32.031/1
Robert Macintyre -7 55.054/1
Julien Guerrier -7 120.0119/1
Jon Rahm -6 12.011/1
-6 and 80.079/1 bar

All the stats suggest we now need to be concentrating on the leading pack.

Jon Rahm was bang there at halfway following a six-under-par 66 on Friday last year, which saw him sit tied for fifth, trailing by four, and the 2021 winner, Collin Morikawa, had sat sixth and two off the lead after 36 holes. The three winners before Morikawa had sat second at halfway and four of the first five winners here were in front after 36 holes.

Robert Karlsson, who beat Ian Poulter in a play-off back in 2010, is not only the only first round leader to win, he's also the only winner not to be sitting inside the top-eight at halfway. He shot a three-over-par 75 on Friday to drop to 12th, trailing by five, before bouncing back over the weekend.

With all that in mind, despite shooting 66 on Friday for the second year in-a-row, trailing by five and sitting tied for 13th, Rahm has it all to do.

The defending champ was matched at just 3.55/2 today, after he'd played his first 12 holes in seven-under-par, but his stuttering finish to his second round may just have put him too far back. With so much traffic to pass, he's going to need two ridiculously low rounds to take the title for a fourth time and I'm far from convinced he represents value at 12.011/1.

Hojgaard finished his second round in style with this stunning eagle but after a neat and tidy six-under-par 66, Viktor Hovland remains at the head of the market, and he's undoubtedly the one they all have to beat.

Nicolai Højgaard's eagles 18 to lead by two shots at the halfway stage #DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/iqLB8yevHU
? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 17, 2023

Hovland is a fair price at in excess of 3/14.00 and I'm happy to play him modestly at 4.216/5. I've also had a small bet on one of the three men alongside him in a tie for second - Triston Lawrence.

The South African played sensationally today and he's one to side with in-contention. It's slightly difficult to imagine him winning a tournament of this magnitude but he's in search of his fifth DP World Tour title in just two years and he's no bigger than 20/121.00 on the High Street. I was happy to take the 28.027/1 on offer.

Over at the RSM Classic, heavy rain and the threat of lightning caused a substantial delay yesterday but they're back out there again today.

Austin Eckroat and my pre-event pick, Denny McCarthy, have just finished their first rounds and after seven-under-par 65s around the Plantation Course, they lead by a stroke. But a number of players are still finishing up their opening rounds so there's still a long way to go and I'm going to sit on my hands for now and see how today pans out.

16:30 - November 16, 2023

The first round of the DP World Tour Championship is all done and dusted, and the pre-event market leaders, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm, have been somewhat underwhelming so far.

Rory rode his luck on the par five 18th, getting a bounce out of the stream and into the mulch off the tee and again with his second shot.

Rory avoids the water but finds the bridge at 18 #DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/zldV01WNar
? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 16, 2023

After his fortunate par at 18, McIlroy posted a one-under-par 71 to sit tied for 15th, four off the lead, whereas Rahm's level par 72 was a truer refection of his general play and if the stats are to be believed, both men are up against it now.

Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard is tied with French pair, Matthieu Pavon and Jullien Guerrier, after the trio posted five-under-par 67s and that's the third fast start in-a-row for Hojgaard.

He sat second after round one at the ZOZO Championship and he was tied for the lead at the Nedbank Challenge last week, so he'll be hoping it's third time lucky, having finished 31st and second, but the stats are against the three leaders too.

Although a fast start is essential here (Jon Rahm is the only man to win here having sat outside the top-seven places or to trail by more than three strokes after round one), we've seen 20 players lead or sit tied for the lead after round one since the tournament's inception in 2009 and Robert Karlsson, who beat Ian Poulter in a play-off back in 2010, is the only first round leader or co-leader to go on to win.

Up until last year, when Rahm sat tied for 14th and five off the lead following a one-under-par 71 on Thursday, every winner had shot a round in the 60s and having won here for the first time having sat tied for 16th following a three-under-par 69 in 2017, Rahm is the only winner to sit outside the top-seven places but can we just blindly follow the stats this time? I'm not convinced we can...

With the Bermuda rough up this year, scoring is already a bit tougher than usual and with poor weather forecasted tomorrow, it doesn't look like getting any easier any time soon.

The 67 shot today by Hojgaard, Pavon and Guerrier equals the highest first round score by a leader (Victor Perez in 2020) so shooting a round in the low 70s today might not be the disaster history suggests it is.

With that in mind, and given he's overcome a slow start on two of the three occasions he's won here, I'm happy to chance Rahm, who sits tied 24th and five off the lead.

With poor weather predicted, we have a two-tee start tomorrow and Rahm is off nice and early from the 10th tee. He'll be well aware that he needs to get his skates on before the weather closes in completely, but he's done it before in round two here so I'm happy to chance him at 16.015/1.

Due to the inclement weather forecast, including predicted overnight rainfall and threat of lightning, the second round of the #DPWTC will be a two-tee start with the first tee time at 11:00am.

More details to follow. pic.twitter.com/QAJhjAtyfV
? DP World Tour Championship (@dpwtc) November 16, 2023

Rahm loves it here and incredibly, today's level-par 72 was the first time he hadn't broken par in 17 spins around the Earth Course.

If the trends are to stand up this year, and we get another winner that's began the week with a round in the 60s, then the new favourite, Viktor Hovland, who opened up with a three-under-par 69, may be tough to beat but the one I like at the prices is Tom Kim.

This is Kim's first appearance here so his bogey-free three-under-par 69 was a decent start but it shouldn't have come as any sort of a surprise.

Although only 21, he already has a decent bank of desert form in the bag and he's an accomplished links exponent so the fact that he appears to have taken to the track immediately is totally understandable. I thought he was worth chancing given he trails by only two strokes in a tie for seventh.

The RSM Classic is underway after an hour-long delay because of rain this morning and I'll look at that event tomorrow once it's started to take shape.

DP World Tour Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Ryan Fox @ 50.049/1

In-Play Picks:
Tom Kim @ 15.5
Jon Rahm @ 16.015/1
Viktor Hovland @ 4.216/5 & 3.259/4
Thriston Lawrence @ 28.027/1

RSM Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Denny McCarthy @ 48.047/1
Camilo Villegas @ 80.079/1

In-Play Picks:
Mackenzie Hughes @ 8.415/2
Tyler Duncan @ 20.019/1

RSM Classic Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2u Carl Yuan @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
2u Cameron Champ @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
1.5u Patton Kizzire @ 240.0239/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
1u Henrik Norlander @ 330.0329/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
1u C.T Pan @ 360.0359/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
0.5u Nico Enchavarria @ 670.0669/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Can odds-on Aberg get off the mark?

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Former winners in-the-mix again

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