The Punter's In-Play Blog: Tight at the top at the RSM Classic

• 12 players within two at the top

• In-Play pick, Ben Martin, tied for the lead

• Danny Lee chanced at a huge price

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9:10 - November 20, 2022

A bogey at the last took the shine off a great day for yesterday morning's 120.0119/1 in-play pick, Ben Martin, but he still heads into round four of the RSM Classic tied for the lead with Patrick Rodgers after a five-under-par 65 around the Seaside Course. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:00.

Patrick Rodgers -14 6.411/2
Ben Martin -14 13.012/1
Sahith Theegala -13 8.415/2
Andrew Putnam -13 8.415/2
Adam Svensson -13 14.527/2
Brian Harman -12 13.012/1
Taylor Montgomery -12 14.013/1
Taylor Pendrith -12 21.020/1
Alex Smalley -12 22.021/1
Beau Hossler-12 27.026/1
Kevin Streelman -12 34.033/1
Harry Higgs -12 40.039/1
Seamus Power -11 30.029/1
Will Gordon -11 42.041/1
Callum Tarren -11 80.079/1
Ben Taylor -11 90.089/1
-10 and 70.069/1 bar

As highlighted in the In-Play tactics section of the preview, we've seen a couple of winners come from way off the pace here and we've seen a couple of players make it to a playoff having trailed by plenty with a round to go too.

Tommy Gainey won here from tied 27th and seven back ten years ago when he shot 60 on Sunday to win by a stroke and two winners have trailed by five on Sunday morning so backing one or two wild outsiders from off the pace is a sporting tactic.

It's going to be tough to get through the crowds today given how bunched the leaderboard is, but I was happy to throw a few pounds at Danny Lee at 310.0309/1. The New Zealander sits tied for 14th and just four off the lead.

I'll be monitoring the early play later with a view to backing one or two early movers in-running, but it might be tough to cut through the traffic this year with as many as 12 players within two at the top.

It's highly likely that one or two of top-12 will perform nicely so it's a tough tournament to call.

15:40 - November 19, 2022

With the co-halfway leader, Matthew Fitzpatrick, getting off to a slow start, Tyrrell Hatton was matched at a low of just 2.3211/8 after he'd birdied three of his first seven holes in round three of the DP World Tour Championship today but things changed quickly on the back-nine, when he made bogeys at 10, 12, 13 and 15 and the Englishman has it all to do tomorrow.

After turning for home in one-over-par for the day, Fitzpatrick turned things around on the back nine with a bogey-free three-under-par 31 but the big moves today came from the first and second in the betting before the off - Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm - who both shot seven-under-par 65s to improve their positions.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 15:30.

Jon Rahm -15 2.427/5
Matthew Fitzpatrick -14 4.57/2
Alex Noren -13 13.012/1
Rory McIlroy -12 5.59/2
Tyrrell Hatton -12 18.535/2
Tommy Fleetwood -10 48.047/1
Adrian Meronk -10 80.079/1
-9 and 400.0399/1 bar

Collin Morikawa came from three back to win last year but he was the first player to win from outside the final two-ball in 11 years and as many as nine of the 13 previous winners have led or been co-leading with a round to go.

Robert Karlsson, who like Morikawa, trailed by three in fifth place in 2010 is the only other winner of the event not to be leading or within one of the lead so despite today's brilliance, and the weight of money coming for him since he finished his third round, Rory still has plenty to do if the stats are anything to go by.

Rory's driving was exceptional today and if he keeps finding fairways he's almost certain to put in quite a charge tomorrow but it's hard to get away from the front two.

Rahm has won here from one back and tied for the lead and he's quite rightly a strong favourite to convert his clear advantage and take the title for a third time.

Since blowing up in front at the Players Championship in 2019, on the first occasion he led with a round to go on either the DP World or PGA Tour, Rahm has converted five of six clear 54-hole leads and having backed him before the off, I'm not about to lay him back.

At odds of around 7/2, Fitzpatrick commands plenty of respect as like Rahm and Rory, he bids to win the event for a third time, but his scores have regressed as the week has progressed and that's a slight concern.

Unlike Fitz and Rory, Rahm doesn't have the distraction of the Race to Dubai to worry about and I'm happy to stick with him. He's the one they all have to beat.

10:10 - November 19, 2022

Andrew Putnam headed the market after round one of the RSM Classic and following a seven-under-par 65 around the Plantation Course yesterday he's still the man to beat as we head into the weekend, where all the action will be played out at the host track - the Seaside Course.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:00.

Andrew Putnam -12 6.25/1
Harry Higgs -12 17.016/1
Cole Hammer -12 22.021/1
Sahith Theegala -11 8.27/1
Joel Dahmen -11 9.08/1
Beau Hossler -11 15.529/2
Callum Tarren -10 30.029/1
Kevin Streelman -10 32.031/1
David Lingmerth -10 38.037/1
Seung-Yul Noh -10 55.054/1
-9 and 25.024/1 bar

The stats tell us that the Seaside Course suits frontrunners, but I'm not convinced.

The last six RSM Classic winners were all in front at this stage but four of the last six won in extra time and only one of the first six winners was leading at this stage.

Had those four playoffs played out differently we could have witnessed winners here trailing by five, six, six and even 12 strokes at this stage!

The tournament is only 12 years old, but we've already seen winners come from four, six and seven shots adrift at halfway and Patrick Rodgers was beaten by Charles Howell in a playoff here in 2018 having sat tied for 68th and 12 shots adrift after two rounds so despite the recent stats, an off the pace winner can't be ruled out.

Having backed him in each of the last two events, I can't pretend not to be a bit miffed to see Joel Dahmen sitting just one off the lead at halfway but I'm going to resist the urge to get him onside now.

Putting has been the key to success here over the years and it's fair to say that's not Joel's forte. Watching him miss putt after putt last week was the reason he's been abandoned.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, this has been a great tournament in which to back a few outsiders from off the pace with a round to go so I'm planning to do that tomorrow, but I've also added one this morning...

The locals have a great record here so Georgia-born Ben Martin, who now resides in South Carolina, having gone to university in the state, looks worth chancing at a triple-figure price given he trails by only three.

I'll be back later with a last look at the DP World Tour Championship once the third round is complete.

16:30 - November 18, 2022

After matching 65s on Thursday at the DP World Tour Championship, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton have again hit identical scores around the Fire Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates, with both men firing five-under-par 67s to set the pace at halfway.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:20.

Matt Fitzpatrick -12 2.942/1
Tyrrell Hatton -12 4.03/1
Alex Noren -9 15.014/1
Adri Arnaus -9 36.035/1
Jon Rahm -8 7.06/1
Jorge Campillo -8 100.099/1
Kurt Kitayama -7 44.043/1
Tommy Fleetwood -6 34.033/1
Min Woo Lee -6 38.037/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -6 65.064/1
Rory McIlroy -5 17.016/1
-5 and 170.0169/1 bar

In front at this stage was the place to be in the early years of this event but that hasn't been the case of late.

As many as five of the first six winners were in front at halfway and had Ian Poulter won the playoff in 2010 instead of Robert Karlsson, the first six winners would have been leading through 36 holes.

Bizarrely, Karlsson is still the only first round leader to take the title, but he fell away in round two with a three-over-par 75 to trail by five and that's still the furthest any winner has been down by at halfway.

Henrik Stenson, who led by two after 36 holes in 2014, is the last halfway leader or co-leader to go on to win so the last seven have all been trailing by in-between one and four strokes but they've all been inside the top-eight places. And that's not a good omen for the pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy...

Rory trails by seven in a tie for 11th so he's too far back if history is anything to go by and he's only that close thanks to a terrific finish to round two.

Having looked to be out of the event entirely, the world number was matched at a high of 110.0109/1 this morning but he finished with back-to-back birdies at 16 and 17 before this magnificent eagle at the par five 18th.

.@McIlroyRory closing out his second round in style #DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/eMhoSuQgwG

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 18, 2022

Rory looks too short given the talent ahead of him. He could go super low over the weekend and it's still unlikely to be good enough with the likes of Fitzpatrick, Hatton, and Jon Rahm so far ahead of him.

Hatton is yet to win here but he traded at odds-on on five separate occasions back in 2016 when he finished second to Fitz, who like Rahm, is looking to take the title for a third time. That trio dominate the market and rightly so.

I'll have my fingers crossed for both my pre-event picks - Rahm and Kurt Kitayama - but I'm not getting any further involved at this stage.

Fitzpatrick and Hatton hold a handy advantage and it's about time we saw a 36-hole leader or co-leader convert.

Hatton doesn't have the stress of trying to win the Race the Dubai and that could give him a very slight edge, but the market has the right man as favourite and Fitzpatrick's a perfectly fair price at almost 2/1.

10:10 - November 18, 2022

The second round of the DP World Tour Championship is well underway and live on Sky and I'll be back later with a look at that one once they reach the halfway stage but before that, here's a quick look at the RSM Classic, where pre-event 1000.0999/1 shot, Cole Hammer, leads by one after an eight-under-par 64 around the Plantation Course.

Hammer, who played in the 2015 US Open as a 15-year-old, only graduated from the University of Texas in May and he's playing in just his 14th PGA Tour event but he looks all set to make his third cut.

He made it to the weekend at the Houston Open back in 2019 and after a run of ten straight missed cuts, he finished 27th at the Houston Open last time out.

It would be a monumental ask for the youngster to kick on and win this week and that's reflected in his price as he still trades at 65.064/1. And his cause won't be helped by playing the tougher of the two venues today - the Seaside Course.

Of the 16 players within three strokes of Hammer's lead after round one, only four players kicked off at the host course - Seaside - and that's not entirely surprising given it played more than two strokes tougher than the Plantation yesterday.

The par 70 Seaside averaged almost half a stroke over-par at 70.44 whereas the Plantation Course averaged just 70.22 - almost two strokes below its par of 72.

Andrew Putnam, who sits tied for sixth on -5 after posting a 65 around the Seaside Course yesterday, heads the market this morning at 11.521/2 but it's a wide-open event.

Dave Tindall's pre-event fancy, Denny McCarthy, who sits tied for 17th after a four-under-par 66 around the Seaside Course yesterday, looks a reasonable price at around 20.019/1 this morning but and I'm more than happy to wait for the stagger to unwind today.

The third and fourth rounds will both be played out on the Seaside Course.

15:55 - November 17, 2022

The opening round of the DP World Tour's final event of the season - the DP World Tour Championship - has finished and Tyrrell Hatton and the US Open champ, Matthew Fitzpatrick, show the way after matching seven-under-par 65s. Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 15:45.

Matthew Fitzpatrick -7 3.613/5
Tyrrell Hatton -7 5.85/1
Alex Noren -6 11.521/2
Adri Arnaus -5 48.047/1
Tommy Fleetwood -4 13.012/1
Kurt Kitayama -4 25.024/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -4 26.025/1
Yannik Paul -4 80.079/1
Callum Shinkwin -4 90.089/1

Selected Others
Rory McIlroy -1 9.617/2
Jon Rahm -2 12.523/2
-3 and 80.079/1 bar

Although the market strongly suggests the two market leaders before the off, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, are very much still in this after their disappointing rounds today, the stats don't back that up at all.

McIlroy still trades at a single-figure price, despite opening the tournament with a one-under-par 71 to sit tied for 22nd and Rahm has plenty on his plate too, following a two-under-par 70 that sees him sitting tied for 14th. And both are too far back already if history is anything to go by.

This is only the 13th edition of the DP World Tour Championship so it's a relatively small sample size but so far, all 12 winners have opened the event with a 68 or better around the Earth Course at Jumeriah Golf Estate - the tournament's host course since day one - and all 12 winners have been within four strokes of the lead at this stage.

If that streak is to continue Rory and Rahm are already out of it.

The front two were very impressive today. Fleetwood began the event with five birdies in-a-row and Hatton had a run of four straight on the back-nine which culminated with this 64-footer before he blotted his copybook slightly with a bogey on 18.

64ft! @TyrrellHatton #DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/tP4RWYvxTP

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 17, 2022

The two Englishmen dominate the market but as highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, only one first round leader or co-leader has gone on to win.

I'm happy enough with the start made by pre-event pick, Kurt Kitayama, who like Hatton spoilt the day slightly with a dropped shot at 18.

He hit more greens in regulation than anyone else today and if the putter warms up a bit he should hang around but I have added one more in-running - the Catalunya Championship winner, Adri Arnaus - who looked fractionally big at 50.049/1.

Arnaus came into the event under a bit of a cloud but with course form figures reading 28-10-9, he clearly likes the venue and he might just hang around after his smart start.

The RSM Classic (previewed here) is only just underway and live on Sky, but it's not been a great start for one of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks - Sepp Straka. He bogeyed two of his first three holes and he looks cooked already!

It's ridiculously early to get involved in-running but Stewart Cink was on my shortlist, so I was a bit irritated to see him start nicely with birdies at two of his first four holes. I've had a tiny wager on him at 120.0119/1.

Of course, the law of sod dictated that he should bogey the fifth once I'd backed him! It looks like I should have sat on my hands a bit longer.

DP World Tour Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Jon Rahm @ 7.413/2
Kurt Kitayama @ 46.045/1

In-Play Pick:
Adri Arnaus @ 50.049/1

RSM Classic Pre-Event Selection:
Tony Finau @ 10.519/2 - Non-Runner
Kevin Kisner @ 75.074/1

In-Play Picks:
Stewart Cink @ 120.0119/1
Ben Martin @ 120.0119/1
Danny Lee @ 310.0309/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2u Sepp Straka @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Patton Kizzire @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 1u Robert Streb @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter