DP World Tour Championship: Rahm ready to rack up the hattrick

• Rory, Rahm and Fitzpatrick all seeking a third title
• Links lovers set to thrive in Dubai
• Rory too short despite fine form
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Tournament History

A week before the 2023 schedule kicks off with two tournaments - the Joburg Open and the Australian PGA Championship - the 2022 DP World Tour season draws to a close with the now traditional curtain closer - the DP World Tour Championship.

First staged 13 years ago, when the DP World Tour replicated the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup with its own version called the Race to Dubai, the DP World Tour Championship is the third and final event of the Rolex Series and it determines who wins the R2D.

It's a limited field event for the top-50 available in the standings. The BMW International Open winner, Haotong Li, who ranks 53rd, is the last man in at the time of writing thanks to the disappointing absence of the defending champion, Collin Morikawa, the injured Will Zalatoris, and Thomas Pieters.

Venue

The Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE

Par 72, 7,675 yards
Stroke index in 2021 - 70.27

The Greg Norman-designed Earth Course has been the event's venue since its inception. It's a long typical desert track with generous fairways and 99 bunkers.

The Tifeagle Bermuda grass greens are large and undulating, with a lot of run-off areas, and they're usually set to run at 12 on the stimpmeter. Water is in-play on the 6th, the 14th and last three holes.

It's a stunning finish that has the potential to produce much drama. The par three 17th has an island green and the par five 18th, with water in play twice if you go for the green and three times if you lay-up, is an intriguing hole, where scores can vary greatly. It was the easiest hole on the course in 2017 but it ranked as the sixth easiest 12 months ago - averaging 4.82.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning nice and early at 5:00 on Thursday in the UK

Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2021 - Collin Morikawa -17 10.09/1
2020 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -15 22.021/1
2019 - Jon Rahm -19 8.07/1
2018 - Danny Willett -18 150.0149/1
2017 - Jon Rahm -19 15.014/1
2016 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -17 110.0109/1
2015 - Rory McIlroy -21 5.95/1

What Will it Take to Win the DP World Tour Championship?

The Earth Course is long, and the fairways are generous so it's no surprise to see the long hitters prosper. In all the years we've been coming here, 16th is the worst any winner has ranked for Driving Distance.

Collin Morikawa ranked 10th for DD and fifth for Driving Accuracy, which is becoming the norm. Length has always been key but driving accuracy wasn't an essential prerequisite in the early days, however, over time, finding fairways has started to be far more important as the course has matured.

Rory McIlroy only ranked tied for 36th for DA when he won the title for a second time seven years ago and when Alvaro Quiros won here in 2011, with only 60 players in the line-up, he ranked 55th for D.A.

Fitzpatrick topped the Driving Accuracy stats when winning two years ago, Rahm ranked eighth in 2019, Willet 12th in 2018 and when he won here for the first time, Fitzpatrick ranked second for DA in 2016.

Nobody hit more greens than Rahm in 2019 and as many as seven of the 13 winners to date have ranked inside the top-four for Greens In Regulation but it still can't be described as a really key stat given Rahm only ranked 26th for GIR on the first occasion he won here, Fitzpatrick ranked 21st in 2016 and McIlroy only ranked 47th in 2012. Morikawa ranked seventh 12 months ago.

Morikawa only ranked 15th for Putting Average last year and that was an unusually high ranking. The previous six winners had ranked fifth, first, first, third, second and fourth but nobody got up-and-down more times throughout the week than Morikawa, who topped the Scrambling rankings.

It's always important to play the long holes well here and despite parring all four on Saturday, Min Woo Lee, who played them in -11, was the only man to better Morikawa's -10 on the par fives.

Is There an Angle In?

Anyone that plays desert golf well must be respected. The two-time winner, Jon Rahm has form in the States in the desert and he won the 2018 edition of the Desert Classic in the Californian desert but the two events to really concentrate on are two the Spaniard is yet to play - the Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters.

As many as four of the nine players to have won this event in its short history - Henrik Stenson (twice), McIlroy (twice), Willett and Alvaro Quiros - have all won the Dubai Desert Classic.

The 2012 DDC winner, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, traded at just 1.4840/85 in this event eight years ago before throwing the tournament away at the 16th hole and the English duo, Andy Sullivan and Matt Wallace, have finished runner-up in both events.

In addition to winning this title, Robert Karlsson, Stenson and Quiros have also won the Qatar Masters, and the inaugural winner, Lee Westwood, should arguably have won at all three venues. Westwood has been in contention numerous times in Qatar, and he's twice finished runner-up at the DDC. The same can be said of Cabrera-Bello, who was also runner-up in Qatar five years ago.

And finally, Fitzpatrick was the fourth man to win the DP World Tour Championship twice in a span of just nine years when he won two years ago and the two-time winner, Rory McIlroy, traded at odds-on again last year so it's fair to say course form stands up well.

Links lovers thrive around the Earth Course

We've now had 13 renewals of the DP World Tour Championship and three Open champions have won five editions (Morikawa, McIlroy x2 and Henrik Stensonx2) with two other Open winners, Shane Lowry and Paul Lawrie, finishing second.

Last year's Alfred Dunhill Links winner, Danny Willett, won the event in 2018 and Jon Rahm, who's won the Irish Open on a links layout twice, won in both 2017 and 2018 so links form really does come to the fore.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Danny Willett had started to show some glimpses of a resurgence before he won here four years ago. He'd finished inside the top-eight at both the Italian and Irish Opens and he'd sat second at halfway before finishing seventh in his penultimate start, in the Turkish Airlines Open, but he went off at around 150.0149/1.

He was the first really big outsider to win, the second to be matched at a triple-figure price, the first to be described as largely out of form and he was just the second winner in ten years not to have won an event somewhere earlier in the season. Fitzpatrick hadn't won for two years when he claimed the title for a second time in 2020 and Stenson, in 2014, is the only other to win here without lifting a trophy earlier in the season but he was the defending champion.

All the winners have been top-class players and Fitzpatrick, in 2016, and Willett two years later, are the only two to be matched at a triple-figure price before the off. The 2011 winner, Quiros, who was matched at odds of 44.043/1, is the only other remotely big priced winner of the event.

Having won the Open Championship a few months earlier, Morikawa was a well-fancied 9/1 chance, Rahm was generally an 8.07/1 shot in 2019 and Rory and Stenson, who have both also won the event twice, were trading at single-figure prices when they won on both occasions, so the tournament has a history of going to the fancied players.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2021 - Collin Morikawa - tied fifth, trailing by four 10.09/1
2020 - Matthew Fitzpatrick - tied for the lead 5.24/1
2019 - Jon Rahm - tied for the lead 2.0621/20
2018 - Danny Willett - tied for the lead 5.69/2
2017 - Jon Rahm - tied second - trailing by one 4.77/2
2016 - Matthew Fitzpatrick - tied second - trailing by one 6.86/1
2015 - Rory McIlroy - second - trailing by one 2.111/10

In-Play Tactics

After an opening 69, Rahm sat four off the lead and tied for 16th when he won here for the first time five years ago and that's the furthest any winner has trailed by after the opening round so this is most certainly a frontrunner's track.

The first seven winners, and 11 of the 13 to date, all opened-up with a round of 68 or better and they were all inside the top-six places after day one.

Morikawa sat sixth and two off the lead after 36 holes last year and the three winners before him sat second at halfway. And four of the first five winners here were in front at halfway.

Robert Karlsson, who beat Ian Poulter in a play-off in 2010, is the only winner not to be sitting inside the top-eight at halfway and up until last year, when Morikawa won having trailed by three in a tie for fifth, he was the only winner not to be sitting first or second with a round to go but bizarrely, he's still the only first round leader to go on to win. He'd dropped back into a tie for 12th after a second round 75 before rallying with back-to-back 67s over the weekend to catch Poulter.

If you're betting in-running, beware the tricky finish where we've witnessed drama aplenty over the years with all four finishing holes determining the outcome of the event at various times.

The 16th is a fairly difficult par four with strategically placed fairway bunkers that really caught out Cabrera-Bello in 2014 and the par three 17th is also tough, but it was the short par four 15th that dramatically changed the landscape of last year's edition when Rory McIlroy caught an awful break...

Some times you can be too accurate...

An awful break for @McIlroyRory on 15.#DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/nGHdWSrprD

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 21, 2021

Tyrrell Hatton was matched at odds-on on five separate occasions during round four in 2016 and he hit a low of 1.132/15 when he made a miraculous par save at the 17th hole but with the event at his mercy, he drove in to the water on the 18th and Fitzpatrick made birdie there to pip him by one.

Market Leaders

Rory McIlroy arrives in Dubai fresh off his successful CJ Cup defence on the PGA Tour and he has course form figures here reading 3-5-11-1-5-2-1-9-20-4 -6 so it's almost inconceivable that he won't contend.

Now back at the top of the world rankings he's playing with verve but he traded at a low of just 1.192/11 12 months ago before eventually finishing sixth and although he was very unlucky on the 15th hole on Sunday, he finished the event weakly.

Rory's clearly in great nick but at around 7/2 he's too short for my liking given he was almost twice that price last year.

Jon Rahm is playing some very nice golf of late too and he arrives in Dubai with current form figures reading 2-1-4.

This is only Rahm's fourth appearance in the event and like Rory, he's looking to win the title for a third time. In between his two wins, he was fourth in 2018, so his claims are equally strong.

Rahm has a ridiculously good record on the DP World Tour and he's my idea of the best bet towards the head of the market.

Viktor Hovland is fractionally shorter than the two-time winner, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and I'm far from convinced that's correct.

Hovland won the aforementioned Dubai Desert Classic in January, and he was third here on debut last year but he hasn't been in sparkling form since his disappointing Sunday at the Open Championship and I'd just favour Fitzpatrick given his course form is so strong.

The US Open winner is looking to win the event for a third time and he gave a great account of himself 12 months ago when finishing runner-up when defending the title for a second time.

Fitzpatrick really does love the venue and the fact he arrives here as a major champion this week can only be a plus.

Selections

I'm more than happy to play Jon Rahm before the off again and I'm also chancing Kurt Kitayama, who came close last time out when finishing runner-up to Rory in the CJ Cup.

Kitayama finished only 48th here on his only previous appearance in 2019, but he plays nicely in the desert, he's monstrously long off the tee, and he's slightly underestimated at odds in excess of 40.039/1.

Selections:
Jon Rahm @ 7.413/2
Kurt Kitayama @ 46.045/1

I'll be back tomorrow with my RSM Classic preview.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter