Scottish Open: Kim and Fox chanced at 29/1 and 89/1

• Hot putting required at the Renaissance

• Keep a close eye on the Open Championship market

• Read my ISCO Championship preview here

• Read our Netherlands v England semi-final cheat sheet here!

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Tournament History

The first two editions of the Scottish Open were in 1935 and 1936 but the third staging didn't occur until 1972 and two years later the tournament disappeared again. It's been an ever-present on the DP World Tour since 1986 though and in addition to being the second of five Rolex Series events, the Scottish Open is now co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour so it's a very strong field.

The Scottish Open has preceded the Open Championship for many years and since 2011 it's been staged on a traditional links set-up to allow players to acclimatise to links golf prior to the Open.

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Venue

The Renaissance Club, Dirleton, North Berwick.

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Course Details

Par 70, 7,237 yards

Stroke Average in 2023 - 69.68

Situated next door to Muirfield and just two miles from the 2018 venue, Gullane, the Tom Doak designed Renaissance Club is hosting the Scottish Open for a sixth year in-a-row.

Having only opened as recently as 2008, changes were made to the course just five years later when a land swap with the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers enabled three new holes to be constructed - connecting the course to the coastline and the par four 13^th hole (the fourth hole in 2018), along the edge of the cliffs and high above the Firth of Forth, is spectacular.

The Club's website states that "Very little earth was moved in the construction of the course. The design embraced the original dunes landscape, typical of true links golf. Tom Doak and his team incorporated these contours into the course while leaving certain significant trees to enhance the beauty and challenges of play. The course has a truly distinctive style; windswept and open dunes land with trees coming into play on a truly coastal links course in Scotland."

The Renaissance Club was the venue for the 54-hole Scottish Senior Open in 2017, won by Paul Broadhurst in 13-under-par, and it first staged this event in 2019 when Bernd Wiesberger eventually saw off Benjamin Herbert after a protracted playoff. Both men reached 22-under-par but in cooler, windier conditions, and following a lengthening of the course by around 200 yards after the 2019 edition, the 2020 playoff protagonists reached only 11-under-par.

Prior to 2020 renewal, the fairways were narrowed in places and there was a change to the layout with holes 1-7 being played as holes 10-16.

The seventh hole was a 561-yard par five up until 2022 but for the third year in-a-row, it plays as a par four measuring 505 yards.

Rory McIlroy won in 15-under-par 12 months ago but challenging conditions resulted in Xander Schauffele winning in just seven-under-par two years ago, so we have quite a wide range of winning scores in just five years.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 8:00 on Thursday.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Rory McIlroy -15 14.013/1
2022 - Xander Schauffele -7 21.020/1
2021 - Min Woo Lee -18 330.0329/1 (playoff)
2020 - Aaron Rai -11 110.0109/1 (playoff)
2019 - Bernd Wiesberger -22 46.045/1 (playoff)
2018 - Brandon Stone -20 1000.0999/1
2017 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello -13 65.064/1 (playoff)
2016 - Alex Noren -14 55.054/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Scottish Open?

As always with a links tournament, previous links form is a huge plus, so the usual rules apply; look at form at this event over the last 12 years, the 2009, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019 editions of the Irish Open, the 2019 British Masters from Hillside Links, the Open Championship, and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship for clues. Links golf is quite unique and those events have all been staged on links courses.

Stats-wise, putting has been absolutely key here. Both the playoff protagonists in 2019 putted really well, ranking third and fifth for Putting Average, the 2019 winner, Rai, only ranked 29^th for Putting Average, but he was the only player in the top-five to rank outside the top-20 for PA, the 2021 winner Min Woo Lee, ranked third for PA and Matt Fitzpatrick, who was beaten in the playoff, ranked first for Strokes Gained Putting.

The 2022 winner, Xander Schauffele, ranked sixth for PA and last year's one and two, Rory McIlroy and Robert McIntyre, ranked second and fourth. David Lingmerth, who finished tied for third, ranked first for Strokes Gained: Putting and Tommy Fleetwood, who finished tied for sixth, ranked first for PA.

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Is There an Angle In?

McIntyre was matched at as low as 1.141/7 in running last year after his spectacular birdie at the 72^nd Hole but Colin Montgomerie, won the title back in 1999, remains the last Scotsman to take the title.

Grew up dreaming of hitting shots like this. It wasn't to be today but I gave it my all. Thanks everyone for the support....a day I'll never forget 󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

pic.twitter.com/8QyvTGdDLO

-- Robert MacIntyre (@robert1lefty) July 16, 2023

We may not have witnessed a Scottish victor, but we've seen winners from all corners of the globe this century. Bernd Wiesberger was the first Austrian to take the title in 2019 and we've seen winners representing as many as 13 different nationalities this century.

With as many as four separate winners (Ernie Els (twice), Retief Goosen, Tim Clark and Brandon Stone) the South Africans have fared the best this century but three of the last 11 winners have been from the States and now the tournament is co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour, we're highly likely to see more American winners.

The English have the next-best record. They've won three of the last 13 renewals and the first three in 2020 (Aaron Rai, Tommy Fleetwood, and Robert Rock) were all English.

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Keep a close eye on the Open Championship market

Brian Harman flagged up his wellbeing 12 months ago with a tied 12^th in the Scottish before winning at Hoylake and nine of the last 12 Open winners have warmed up for the Championship in this event.

Anyone that plays well here will shortened up dramatically for next week's major so if you fancy someone at Troon that's playing here this week, make sure you're keeping an eye on how they're doing. Their price will collapse for next week if they perform well here.

The 2016 Open winner at Troon, Henrik Stenson, was matched at 40.039/1 to win the Open while this event was in progress, and he went off at around 25.024/1. The runner-up to Stenson, Phil Mickelson, was matched at 60.059/1 during the Scottish Open, before going off at 40.039/1, and those two had history...

In 2013, Mickelson was matched at 38.037/1 to win the Open before the Scottish Open started but he was down to 22.021/1 after winning this event and Stenson, who stumbled late on in that renewal, saw his odds cut from 70.069/1 to 50.049/1 during this event before going on to finish runner-up to Lefty at Muirfield.

Rickie Fowler halved in price for the Open Championship when he won the Scottish nine years ago.

Shane Lowry didn't play in this event five years ago but he did warm up for the Open by playing on a links track, finishing tied for 62^nd in the Irish Open at Lahinch two weeks before his victory at Portrush, Collin Morikawa won the Open Championship at Royal St Georges after finishing 71^st here and the 2022 Open champ, Cameron Smith, found his groove in this event when finishing tied for 10^th. He had this to say after his victory at St Andrews.

"I started to feel really good with where my game was at last weekend at the Scottish Open, I had a really, really solid weekend."

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A great event for outsiders

Rory McIlroy was well-fancied 12 months and having won the JP MacManus Pro-Am on the Tuesday, Schauffele was a well-backed 20/121.00 shot two years ago too.

Rolex Series events tend to go to high-class, well-fancied players, and now that this event is co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour we may see the calibre of the winners improve but this has been a great event for outsiders of late with three of the last six winners going off at a triple-figure price. And but for Rory's remarkable finish 12 months ago, that would have read four from six.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Rory McIlroy led by a stroke 2.727/4
2022 - Xander Schauffele led by two strokes 2.1411/10
2021 - Min Woo Lee T5 - trailing by three 60.059/1
2020 - Aaron Rai T10 - trailing by five 95.094/1
2019 - Bernd Wiesberger led by two strokes 1.991/1
2018 - Brandon Stone T11 - trailing by three 150.0149/1
2017 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello - trailing by four 34.033/1
2016 - Alex Noren led by two strokes 2.9215/8

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In-Play Tactics

Being up with the pace is often the place to be at links venues. Unless there's significant rain, the courses tend to get faster and firmer as the week wares on but that hasn't always been the case in this event.

We've seen four of the last seven winners come from off the pace and it could very easily have been six from seven.

Having been matched at a high of 700.0699/1 during the third round on Saturday morning, MacIntyre was a 200.0199/1 chance on Sunday morning, sitting alongside Tyrrel Hatton, a 75.074/1 shot, the pair were five adrift with a round to go.

As already highlighted, MacIntyre was matched at just 1.141/7 and Hatton hit 2.26/5 after 12 holes before a poor finish saw him finish tied for sixth. And although he led with a round to go, the 2022 winner, Schauffele, started very slowly...

He by two after 54 holes and after birdies at the first two holes, he was matched in-running at just 1.351/3 but he's not the most reliable in-contention and after he'd dropped shots at six, seven and nine he drifted back out to 3.02/1.

He did manage to regroup and eventually win by a stroke, but he sat 11 off the lead and tied for 69^th after round one so he can't be described as an up with the pace winner. He made his big move on Friday, shooting 65 to move up into a tie for fourth at halfway.

Although only three off the lead with a round to go, Min Woo Lee was a juicy 60.059/1 chance three years ago, having been matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running earlier in the week, and that was close to the lead compared to some of the other winners...

Rai trailed by eight after shooting 70 on day one, he was matched for a few pounds at 1000.0999/1 in-running on Saturday, and he still trailed by five with a round to go.

Trading at around 95.094/1 before round four, Aaron Rai hit 200.0199/1 when he fell even further back with a bogey at the second hole but the dropped shot galvanised him into action and five birdies in his next six put him bang in-the-mix. He went on to win in extra time from the wrong side of the draw, one week after giving up a golden chance to win the Irish Open.

Wiesberger trailed by four in a tie for 29^th after round one in 2019 but he was tied for the lead at halfway after a 61 in round two and he was two clear with a round to go but it was very nearly a different story.

Benjamin Hebert traded at a low of 1.021/50 in extra time before losing the playoff to Wiesberger and he'd trailed by six at halfway and by seven through 54 holes!

The two previous Scottish Open winners, Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Brandon Stone, had both been seven adrift at halfway, Rickie Fowler trailed by five strokes nine years ago at the midway point and both Phil Mickelson (2013) and Jeev Milkha Singh (2012) trailed by four through 36 holes so a fast start is far from imperative.

I'll be back later today or tomorrow with a look at the market leaders and a summary of any pre-event selections.

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Market Leaders

With the world number one Scottie Scheffler absent, the defending champion Rory McIlroy heads the market narrowly over the 2022 winner Xander Schauffele.

Rory has a habit of winning the same title on multiple occasions and, in the last couple of years he's come accustomed to defending successfully, winning both the CJ Cup back-to-back in 2021 and 2022 and the Dubai Desert Classic in 2023 and 2024.

He's an Open Championship winner and a fabulous links exponent but his victories rarely come without drama, as witnessed with his last successful title defence, when he trailed by 11 strokes at halfway, and in this event 12 months ago, when he needed to birdie the last two holes to win.

His approach into the 72^nd hole last year was so impressive that there's now a plaque in place to remember it.

Looking back at @McIlroyRory's approach to win for the first time in Scotland #GenesisScottishOpen | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/kZAOSmUYOu

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) July 8, 2024

This is the first time we've seen Rory since his infamous collapse at Pinehurst last month and that has to be a concern.

In addition to having the pressure of defending, he also has to bounce back from a catastrophic finish and the combination of those two factors is more than enough to put me off.

Xander is playing superbly and, since winning the US PGA Championship in May (his first major success), he's finished eighth at the Memorial Tournament, seventh in the US Open and 13^th at the Travelers Championship last time out. He's almost certain to contend again here.

He finished only 42^nd when defending 12 months ago but he was 10^th on debut in 2021 so he clearly likes the venue.

The 2021 Open champion Collin Morikawa is trading only fractionally shorter than Sweden's Ludvig Aberg and I prefer the American's chances.

He's another fine links exponent and, although he hasn't won since the ZOZO Championship back in October, since finishing third in the US Masters in April he's put up form figures reading 9-23-16-4-4-2-14-13.

The fact that his win in Japan in October is his only victory since he won at Royal St Georges three years ago is a negative, and so too is his form here. He finished 71^st the week before he won the Open and he missed the cut in 2022, suggesting this place may not suit him especially well.

Aberg has played here only once before, missing the cut 12 months ago.

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Selections

It's hard to get away form Korea's Tom Kim, who has finished third and sixth in first two visits to the Renaissance.

He also finished runner-up to Brian Harman in the Open Championship last year, so he clearly enjoys links golf and he arrives in decent form.

He missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last time out but in all probability that was a reaction to his playoff defeat to Scheffler at the Travelers Championship the week before, where he ranked first for Driving Accuracy, Greens In Regulation, Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Unusually for Tom, his putting numbers weren't great at TPC River Highlands, but he ranked eighth for Putting Average at the Canadian Open last month, where he finished fourth, and he ranked fourth for PA at the US Open, where he finished 26^th.

I'll be back later with two picks in this event for the Find Me a 100 Winner column but my only other selection at this stage is last week's beaten favourite, Ryan Fox, who was a disappointing tied 17^th behind Ewen Ferguson at the BMW International Open.

Fox has improving course form figures reading MC-MC-44-47-12 and he finished second in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship when defending the title last year.

He was also a very unlucky loser at the Irish Open at Ballyliffin back in 2017 so he has an excellent links pedigree and he'll be much happier now back on European soil.

The Kiwi spoke of how difficult he's finding life on the PGA Tour last week in Germany, although it didn't stop him from going odds-on during round three of the Canadian Open last month.

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Now read my ISCO Championship preview here

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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