RSM Classic: Finau a fair price to go back-to-back again

Tournament History

The RSM Classic, formerly known as the McGladrey Classic, became a two-course tournament seven years ago, leading to an increased field size.

Competitors will play both the Plantation Course and the Seaside Course in rotation over the first two days. The Seaside Course will used for both the third and fourth rounds after the cut.

Venue

Sea Island Resort (Seaside), Sea Island, Georgia.

Course Details

Plantation Course
Par 72, 7,060
Stroke index in 2021 - 70.69

Originally designed by Walter Travis in 1926, the Plantation Course was renovated in 1998 by Rees Jones, who described the course as "parkland by the sea", and it was revamped again in 2019 by Love Golf Design.

The course is now 153 yards longer, quite a bit tougher, and the par five eighth hole is the only one unchanged from 2018. For more on the redesign, please see this article from the PGA Tour website.

Seaside Course
Par 70, 7,005 yards
Stroke index in 2021 - 68.97

Originally made up of two separate nine-hole courses - a 1929 Colt and Alison classic and a Joe Lee 1973 creation called the Marchside Nine, the Seaside Course was created in 1999 when Tom Fazio combined the two. Positioned right on the southern tip of St. Simons Island this sea-side links style Bermuda grass course is susceptible to very windy conditions and quite different to the parkland style Plantation Course.

If the wind doesn't blow it's a very easy track. Sebastian Munoz opened up last year's renewal with a 10-under-par 60.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2021 - Talor Gooch -22 55.054/1
2020 - Robert Streb -19 (playoff) 1000.0999/1
2019 - Tyler Duncan (playoff) -19 450.0449/1
2018 - Charles Howell III (playoff) -19 70.069/1
2017 - Austin Cook -21 160.0159/1
2016 - Mackenzie Hughes (playoff) 600.0599/1
2015 - Kevin Kisner -22 20.019/1

What Will it Take to Win the RSM Classic?

The 2018 winner Charles Howell ranked 12th for Driving Distance and last year's winner Talor Gooch was 20th. But length off the tee is irrelevant. The 2020 playoff protagonists, Robert Streb and Kevin Kisner, who had both won the title previously, ranked 51st and 52nd for DD.

Kisner ranked only 53rd for DD when he won in 2015, the 2016 winner, Mackenzie Hughes, was even shorter, ranking only 57th, and the 2017 winner, Austin Cook, was quite close to the tournament average when he ranked 39th. The average DD ranking of the 12 winners to date is 35.83.

Accuracy is ordinarily more important than power from the tee here but the first two home last year ranked tied 52nd for Driving Accuracy. The 2020 winner Streb only ranked 36th so it's really not worth getting hung up on the driving metrics. The average Driving Accuracy ranking of the 12 winners to date is 24.83.

Here are the average rankings for all the other key stats for the 12 tournament winners to date.

Greens In Regulation 17.08
Scrambling 13.58
Putting Average 9.75
Putts per Round 11.75
Strokes Gained Putting 8.9 *
*SGP - last ten events only

The 2018 winner, Howell, skews the figures somewhat as his stats were far from typical. He gave it a good biff off the tee, found plenty of fairways and ranked number one for Greens In Regulation but his putting was very poor compared with most winners.

Howell pushed the putting averages up considerably given he ranked 70th for Putting Average, 54th for Putts per Round and only 24th for SGP. With rankings for those same stats of ninth, 16th and sixth, Gooch produced much more typical flatstick stats.

The 2015 and 2016 winners Kisner and Hughes both ranked number one for PA and both made more birdies than anyone else, so it's very often a bit of a putting competition for those who can handle the Bermuda greens.

Is There an Angle In?

Gooch was born in Oklahoma, where he still resides, and Streb, who lives in neighbouring Kansas, was also born in Oklahoma, but the locals tend do well here. Howell is from Augusta, Georgia, Kisner went to University in Georgia, and he lives in the neighbouring state of South Carolina.

The 2013 winner Chris Kirk, who said he'd played the Seaside Course at least 100 times previously when he won, and the inaugural winner Heath Slocum both live in Georgia. A number of players who have gone close in the event have a connection with the area.

The problem with looking for the local angles is that you'll find plenty of them. Tournament host Davis Love III has been instrumental in getting this event up and running and he's also been the driving force behind making Sea Island a place that golf professionals want to live and work.

If you're looking for courses that correlate well with the Seaside Course, you're spoilt for choice.

Look at form at the recent Bermuda Championship, which is played at the par 71 Royal Port GC.

This year's winner Seamus Power finished fourth here last year, the 2019 winner in Bermuda Brendon Todd led here through three rounds two weeks after winning there and the 2020 Bermuda winner Brian Gay has finished fourth and third here previously.

There are also three par 70 Bermuda tracks that are well worth checking out.

These include Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony Open in Hawaii, Colonial Country Club, venue of the Charles Schwab Challenge (Kisner won the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2017 after winning here in 2015 while Kirk doubled up in 2013 and 2015 too) and TPC Southwind, which hosts the St. Jude Championship/Classic.

But the two I like best are the par 71 Harbour Town Links in neighbouring South Carolina, which has hosted the RBC Heritage since its inception in 1969, and PGA National - home of the Honda Classic since 2007.

The first three winners of this tournament all had a top-six finish in the RBC Heritage and an ever-increasing number of players have performed well in both this event and the Honda Classic. One of the four men to be beaten in the playoff here five years ago, Camilo Villegas, romped to a five-stroke victory at the Honda in 2010 and the surprise 2016 winner here Hughes, who was also runner-up 12 months ago, was a huge outsider when finishing second to Sungjae Im in the Honda in 2020.

Winners here haven't always been in hot form. In fact, it's the opposite. Kisner had finished runner-up in the WGC HSBC Champions in his penultimate start in 2015 and Robert Streb had finished 10th in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open when he won the title on the first occasion. But as you'll see with the list below, most had poor form coming into the event and four of the winners had missed the cut in their penultimate start.

2021 - Talor Gooch 5-11-60
2020 - Robert Streb 21-MC-55
2019 - Tyler Duncan - MC-18-47
2018- Charles Howell III - 5-61-MC
2017 - Austin Cook - 25-20-50
2016 - Mackenzie Hughes - 26-68-MC
2015 - Kevin Kisner - 25-37-2
2014 - Robert Streb - 9-31-10
2013 - Chris Kirk - 24-36-25
2012 - Tommy Gainey - 38-66-MC
2011 - Ben Crane - 51-10-MC
2010 - Heath Slocum - 65-50-45

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Experienced pros bossed the tournament to begin with, but Gooch had just turned 30 when he won 12 months ago, the 2019 winner, Duncan, was also only 30 and both were winning on the PGA Tour for the first time.

And had Patrick Rodgers won the playoff four years ago instead of Howell, who was 39, seven of the last eight winners, and eight of the last ten, would have been winning for the first time on the PGA Tour.

Gooch had been on the PGA Tour since 2017 when he got off the mark here 12 months ago, but inexperienced PGA Tour players have thrived of late.

Duncan was playing in only his second season on the PGA Tour and the 2016 and '17 winners were PGA Tour rookies. In fact, they had remarkably similar profiles. Cook was playing in only his 14th PGA Tour event with a World Ranking of 302 and Hughes was playing in his ninth with a ranking of 287.

Had Rodgers beaten Howell five of the last nine winners would have been in their 20s. The other three weren't exactly ancient. Gooch and Duncan had just turned 30 before they won and Kisner was only 31 when he won seven years ago but with distance irrelevant this is a tournament that gives the older guys a chance and outsiders have a fantastic record.

Having finished fourth here in 2014 and runner-up in his previous start, Kisner went off at around the 20/1 mark six years ago. But he's by far the shortest winner of the tournament to date.

Gooch was a pre-event 55.054/1 chance, Howell went off at 70.069/1 and the first two winners, Heath Slocum and Ben Crane, both went off at around that price. The 2013 winner Chris Kirk went off at 50.049/1, having been matched at a high of 60.059/1.

Very few backed the 2012 winner Tommy Gainey while Streb was matched at 110.0109/1 in 2014. Cook was an unexpected winner, matched at 160.0159/1 before the off five years ago, and the four playoff protagonists that made it through to Monday's playoff in 2016 were all big-priced outsiders.

The winner, Hughes, was matched at 600.0599/1 before the off (and again in the playoff - see below) Villegas was matched at 280.0279/1, Henrik Norlander was a 450.0449/1 shot and Blayne Barber was backed at 500.0499/1.

The 2019 winner Duncan was a 450.0449/1 chance and Streb went off at 1000.0999/1 two years ago. This is definitely a tournament in which you can throw a few darts.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2021 - Talor Gooch - led by three 1.875/6
2020 - Robert Streb - led by three 2.447/5
2019 - Tyler Duncan T5 - trailing by four 48.047/1
2018 - Charles Howell III - led by one stroke 3.6553/20
2017 - Austin Cook - led by three 1.84/5
2016 - MacKenzie Hughes - led by one stroke 6.25/1
2015 - Kevin Kisner - led by three 1.674/6

In-Play Tactics

The last six winners have all been in front at halfway but that doesn't tell half the story. You can take on odds-on shots in-running and chance players from off the pace.

Gooch won easily last year but there's often plenty of drama and four of the last six renewals have gone to extra-time.

Having led by two after 36 holes, Duncan trailed by four after shooting 70 on Saturday in 2019 and he went out to 48.047/1 before bouncing back to win. Webb Simpson came agonisingly close to claiming the title once again and for the third time in the tournament's history, he traded at odds-on without winning - hitting a low of 1.330/100 before losing the playoff.

In 2018, Simpson was one of three players to trade at odds-on without picking up the trophy. He hit 1.84/5, Cameron Champ was matched at 1.855/6 and the runner-up Patrick Rodgers touched 1.645/8.

Kisner is the shortest priced winner of the event and he was by far the easiest winner too - romping to a six-stroke victory in 2015, after skipping to the front during round three - but that was the dullest finish we've had so far.

If you enjoy backing an outsider on a Sunday evening - one who might just put in a charge from off the pace - then this is most definitely the event for you.

I backed Cameron Tringale with a round to go in 2020 at 160.0159/1 and he was matched at a low of 4.94/1 after being matched at 1000.0999/1 when he parred the first four holes on Sunday.

We've only had 12 renewals but already we've seen winners come from four strokes back, five off the pace (twice), and from seven strokes back with a round to go.

Heath Slocum won the inaugural event after leading through three rounds but Ben Crane came from five shots back to win in 2012 and a year later, Tommy Gainey hit 60 in round four to win by a stroke, having trailed by seven after 54 holes!

Robert Streb began the fourth round trailing by five strokes in 2014 and trading at 110.0109/1 before going on to win for the first time. Twelve months earlier, Tim Clark very nearly did the same thing.

He also began round four trading at a triple figure price and five off the lead and was matched at just 4.03/1 after he'd shot a final round of 62 (one better than Streb and Crane). He would have made a playoff if Chris Kirk hadn't birdied the penultimate hole.

We very nearly witnessed another miraculous winner four years ago. Patrick Rodgers was absolutely miles back before getting into the playoff. The pre-event 160.0159/1 chance was matched at 1000.0999/1 when he trailed by 12 at halfway and he was still five back with a round to go after shooting 61 in round three. A 62 on Sunday saw him get into the playoff.

With six of the first 12 renewals going to extra-time, a tight and dramatic finish can be expected but I'll be amazed if we get anything quite as bizarre as the finish to the 2016 tournament which went to a five-man playoff.

As darkness fell, Billy Horschel eliminated himself on Sunday evening with an unbelievably bad putt on the 18th green before the Monday finish saw a crazy conclusion. Incredibly, Hughes won the event at the third extra hole, despite never finding the par three 17th green!

All four remaining playoff protagonists missed the green completely and Hughes was somehow matched at 600.0599/1 when his second shot still failed to make the putting surface. But his three rivals all failed to get-up-and-down for par after the Canadian holed out for a three from just off the green.

Market Leaders

After his impressive victory at the Houston Open last week, Tony Finau is the clear favourite and the only slight surprise is that he's not trading shorter than 10.09/1.

The world number 12 is in search of his fourth victory in eight starts and, if he plays like he did last week, he'll win back-to-back again, just as he did in July when he followed a three-stroke win at the 3M Open with a five-stroke demolition of the field at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This is Finau's second appearance in the event and his first since he finished 14th eight years ago soon after graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour.

Brian Harman, who was fourth here in 2017 has only ordinary event form aside from that performance but he arrives in tremendous form this year.

He's ticked over nicely since finishing sixth in the Open, with a third at the St Jude Championship and a second at the World Wide Technology Championship last time out the highlights.

Seamus Power is in even better form than Harman. He followed his win in Bermuda with a third in Mexico and after four missed cuts in-a-row, his fourth last year demonstrates the test is perfect for him.

Selections

I've had a small bet on Tony Finau at 19/2 with the Sportsbook in the Enhanced Win Only market.

I've also doubled him up with Jon Rahm in the DP World Tour Championship, which I've previewed here. Also in the Enhanced Win Only market at 11/2 with the Sportsbook.

And I've also backed the 2015 winner, Kevin Kisner, at a juicy 75.074/1. He is in poor form at present but he often springs to life out of the blue, as he did when finishing second here in 2020 and when winning the Wyndham Championship last year.

Selections:
Tony Finau @ 10.519/2 (Enhanced Win Only market - Sportsbook)
Kevin Kisner @ 75.074/1

Double - Tony Finau @ 10.519/2 & Jon Rahm @ 6.511/2 (Enhanced Win Only markets - Sportsbook)

I'll be back later today with the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter