The Punter's De-brief: Ryo rallies to pinch Paris prize

• Find Dave Tindall's Ryder Cup guide here

• Read Matt Cooper's Team Europe profiles

• Smith matched at 1.111/9 in running

Pre-event 32.031/1 chance, Jordan Smith, led the Open de France by three strokes at the halfway stage and he was tied for the lead with Ewen Ferguson and trading at around 6/42.50 with a round to go but things changed in a hurry in round four.

Ferguson began his round in the most bizarre fashion, putting into the water on the very first hole to record a double-bogey six.

"Unbelievable"

Le Golf National is no easy track as co-leader @EwboF drops two shots! #CazooOpenDeFrance pic.twitter.com/PoPQWqX6sn

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 24, 2023

Ferguson, who was matched at a low of 3.39/4, found water again on the second, leading to another double bogey, while Smith opened round four with back-to-back birdies.

In a matter of minutes, Ferguson had gone from tied for the lead to six back and with nobody emerging from off the pace, Smith led by six over the entire feed.

The Englishman was matched at just 1.111/9 but his birdie at two would be his last of the day and as putt after putt slid by, his lead was erased.

My 60.059/1 pre-event pick, Rasmus Hojgaard, put in a charge and he was matched at a low of 2.747/4 after back-to-back birdies at 12 and 13 and fellow Dane, Jeff Winther, who had been matched at a 1000.0999/1 when trailing by seven with a round to go, was matched at a low of 3.55/2 but his 12-under-par total wasn't quite enough.

With Smith stuttering, Rasmus stumbling late on (played the last three holes in one-over-par) and Winther not quite posting a low enough total, Japan's Ryo Hisatsune finished in style to win by two.

Playing Le Golf National for the first time, and having missed his last two cuts, Hisatsune was a largely unfancied 110.0109/1 chance before the off and trailing by four in solo fifth, he was still a 32.031/1 shot with a round to go.

An after a bogey at the fourth in round four, Hisatsune trailed by seven and he was matched at as high as 130.0129/1.

The 21-year-old looked out of the reckoning when he turned in level-par but a birdie at the par five ninth was the start of a run that saw him pick up four strokes in five holes and he hit the front with another at the 15th.

Another birdie for Hisatsune to take the lead at -13 #CazooOpenDeFrance https://t.co/HhBINQc5eo pic.twitter.com/7I51wZhUsx

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 24, 2023

After a brilliant up-and-down for par on the par three 16th, Hisatsune birdied the tough 17th to go two clear and he sealed the deal with an immaculate stress-free par at the last.

An outsiders event once more?

Between 2006 and 2013, six of the eight Open de France winners were matched at a triple-figure price before the off, so it was a reasonable event for longshots.

Things changed after that though and the next five winners were all plausible candidates, but it's swung the other way again now and following Hisatsune's victory, the last three winners have all going off at more than 100/1101.00.

Great tournament for trading

With water in play on ten holes and with such a tough finish, Le Golf National is a great place to take on odds-on shots.

Smith was matched at almost 1/101.10 in round four this year when he led by six, Hojgaard was matched at a low of 1.42/5 before finishing second 12 months ago and in the 2019 edition (no event in 2020 or 2021), J.B Hansen hit a low of 1.241/4 and George Coetzee hit 1.330/100 before the third round leader, Nicolas Colsaerts, who had led by three with a round to go, rallied to take the title. And Colsaerts is a bit of a rarity...

Since Pablo Larrazabal won his first DP World Tour event here in 2008, leading after every round, we've seen 18 players lead or co-lead after three rounds and Colsaerts is one of only three to convert.

Solheim Cup provides trading steer

The price for the tie for next week's Ryder Cup has shortened up from a high of 16.5 to its current price of 13.012/1 but that may still offer an opportunity for a nice back-to-lay vehicle if it's as tight an affair as the betting suggests.

If the contest remains close over the first two days, that price will shorten and anyone backing the tie before the off will be able to lay it back for a nice profit.

Although the Solheim Cup ended 14-14, with the USA taking a 4-0 lead, the tie was matched at a high of 42.041/1 and there were some huge moves in the market for both the Americans and the Europeans.

Team USA were matched at a low of 1.081/12 and the Europeans hit 1.584/7 so anyone trading the three outcomes back and fore will have had a very profitable week.

Had the Americans just kicked on after their bright start it would have been a dull event and tough one for trading and that was the scenario two years ago at Whistling Straits.

Team USA won the first three sessions 3-1 before drawing Saturday afternoon's fourballs but the contest was effectively over with the Americans leading 11-5 going into Sunday.

That was the biggest lead going into the singles since 1975 and the three previous editions were fairly one-sided too but if you believe we're in for a tighter affair this time around, and we're certainly due a close one, trading the three outcomes might be a great way to play it.

I'm going to take the week off, but Dave Tindall has already produced a guide to the Ryder Cup here and Matt Cooper has looked at Team Europe here and Team USA here.

I'll be back next Monday with previews for both the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and the Sanderson Farms Championship.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter