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• Course form counts at Vidanta Vallarta

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Tournament History

The Mexico Open has been in existence since it debuted at Chapultepec (the venue for the now defunct WGC - Mexico Championship) in 1944.

Having previously featured on the Tour de las Américas, the Korn Ferry Tour, and even the European Challenge Tour, it became a PGA Tour Latinoamérica event in 2013 and it was elevated to an official PGA Tour event for the first time three years ago.

This is the second year in-a-row that the tournament has been staged in February after the first two editions were staged at the end of April and after the US Masters.

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Venue

The Norman Signature Course, Vidanta Vallarta, Vallarta, Mexico

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Course Details

Par 71, 7456 yards
Stroke Average in 2024 - 70.07

Although situated around a mile from the Pacific Ocean and the Banderas Bay, the Norman Signature Course doesn't look like a typical coastal track.

The 2015 Greg Norman design, which staged the event for the first time three years ago, winds along the banks of the Ameca River providing views of the Sierra Madres from every hole.

It's a long, flat track with wide fairways and very little rough - although it was allowed to grow fractionally longer last year.

The entire course is blanketed by Platinum paspalum and water is in-play on as many as 14 holes.

The greens are undulating and protected by large bunkers, of which there are 106 in total.

Having been set to 12 on the Stimpmeter for the first two editions staged in April, the green speeds were reduced to 11 in this earlier slot in the schedule last year.

Indigenous trees, native grasses and jungle surround the course layout which is reached via the world's longest golf cart suspension bridge spanning the Ameca River from Nayarit to Jalisco.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 15:00 on Thursday

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First Three Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2022 - Jon Rahm -17 6.05/1
2023 - Tony Finau -24 9.417/2
2024 - Jake Knapp -19 60.059/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Mexico Open?

Here are the top three and ties with traditional and Strokes Gained stats from the first three editions.

2022
Jon Rahm -17 DA 15 DD 1 GIR 7 SC 17 PA 32
Tony Finau -16 DA 47 DD 38 GIR 1 SC 31 PA 35
Kurt Kitayama -16 DA 21 DD 8 GIR 11 SC 57 PA 5
Brandon Wu -16 DA 10 DD 10 GIR 5 SC 7 PA 53

2023
Tony Finau -24 DA 11 DD 11 GIR 3 SC 2 PA 6
Jon Rahm -21 DA 37 DD 14 GIR 4 SC 53 PA 3
Brandon Wu -19 DA 1 DD 36 GIR 45 SC 23 PA 1

2024
Jake Knapp -19 DA 28 DD 2 GIR 6 SC  PA 10
Sami Valimaki -17 DA 37 DD 27 GIR 40 SC 25 PA 2
Stephan Jaeger -14 DA 50 DD 1 GIR 27 SC 23 PA 6
Justin Lower -14 DA 22 DD 33 GIR 2 SC 35 PA 28
C.T Pan -14 DA 15 DD 20 GIR 30 SC 22 PA 40

Stats Key
DA = Driving Accuracy
DD = Driving Distance
GIR = Greens In Regulation
SC = Scrambling
PA = Putting Average

2022
Jon Rahm -17 Tee 2 App 30 ATG 22 T2G 3 P 18
Tony Finau -16 Tee 17 App 2 ATG 5 T2G 1 P 60
Kurt Kitayama -16 Tee 11 App 18 ATG 39 T2G 10 P 12
Brandon Wu -16 Tee 7 App 8 ATG 70 T2G 14 P 7

2023
Tony Finau -24 Tee 2 App 8 ATG 13 T2G 1 P 8
Jon Rahm -21 Tee 1 App 32 ATG 39 T2G 6 P 2
Brandon Wu -19 Tee 7 App 59 ATG 5 T2G 14 P 1

2024
Jake Knapp -19 Tee 11 App 1 ATG 41 T2G 1 P 17
Sami Valimaki -17 Tee 19 App 12 ATG 22 T2G 8 P 9
Stephan Jaeger -14 Tee 22 App 33 ATG 13 T2G 17 P 13
Justin Lower -14 Tee 25 App 13 ATG 21 T2G 11 P 18
C.T Pan -14 Tee 7 App 48 ATG 4 T2G 10 P 19

Stats Key
Tee = SG: Off the Tee
App = SG: Approach
ATG = SG: Around the Green
T2G = SG: Tee to Green
P = SG: Putting

This is a long track with very little rough, so the big hitters are most definitely advantaged.

All bar one of the par fours are lengthy and the one the only short one, the drivable seventh, which has been the easiest hole on the course over the last three years, also favours those that can give it a good whack off the tee.

The worst any of the three winners have ranked for Driving Distance is 11^th and the first two victors ranked second for SG: Off the Tee. Last year's winner, Knapp, ranked 11^th for that stat.

Hitting it a long way clearly helps with finding the dancefloors as the worst any of the three winners have ranked for Greens In Regulation is seventh and the three have ranked third, first and first for SG: Tee to Green. 

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Is There an Angle In?

Rahm compared this track to Kapalua in Hawaii, where The Sentry is staged each year and that makes a lot of sense.

Like Kapalua, Vidanta is wide-open and exposed but so far, Rahm is the only player to shine at both venues.

Greg Norman is also responsible for a couple of other courses used recently on the PGA Tour - the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, which hosts the Valero Texas Open each year, and he also designed El Camaleon, which used to host the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.

Like the Norman Signature Course here, El Camaleon is a paspalum track situated on the Mexican coast and there are numerous examples of form crossing over between the two layouts but El Camaleon is now a LIV Golf venue (Rahm finished third there last year) so it's not much use to us now.

The World Wide Technology Championship, which for the last two years has been staged at the Tiger Woods designed El Cardonal at Diamante layout in Mexico, the Puerto Rico Open, and the Corales Puntacana R & C Championship, are all played out on paspalum tracks, and all three have provided clues for this event.

Tony Finau only played in the Puerto Rico Open once, and he won it, and Brandon Wu has form in Puerto Rico reading 7-3-42.

Stephan Jaeger, who finished tied for third here last year, led the Corales Puntacana at halfway in 2016 and after round one in 2021, and Justin Lower, who finished alongside Jaeger here last year, finished fourth at the Corales in April.

Lower also finished second to Austin Eckroat in the WWT in November and that event may well be the one that correlates best in the fullness of time.

El Cardonal at Diamante has the exact same strain of paspalum as that laid down at the Norman Signature Course and both courses provide plenty of space of the tee.

Sami Valimaki, who traded at odds-on during round four here last year (1.855/6), had won the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour four months earlier and that's an event staged at an exposed layout with paspalum greens so that's another venue to consider. 

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Will Course Form be Key Again?

Although Patrick Rodgers finished sixth, having finished 10^th in the first two editions here, last year's leaderboard was largely dominated by tournament debutants, but we can't ignore how well course form stood up here two years ago.

The first three home in 2022 filled the first three places again in 2023 and Cameron Champ, who finished sixth three years ago arrived in Mexico in awful form in 2023, having missed six cuts in-a-row, but he was on the fringes of contention over the weekend and but for a poor finish, he'd have been placed again.

Champ sat fifth with three holes to play but he bogeyed both 16 and 17 before birdying the last and he eventually finished tied for eighth.

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Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2022 - Jon Rahm led by two 1.684/6
2023 - Tony Finau led by two 1.9620/21
2024 - Jake Knapp led by four 1.321/3

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In-Play Tactics

The first three winners have all been in front after rounds two and three, but I wouldn't rule out an off the pace winner here.

As highlighted above, Valimaki traded at odds-on 12 months ago, having trailed by four with a round to go, Rahm was matched at 1.758/11 when he hit the front during round three in 2023, having sat tied for 12^th and six back after two rounds, and in the inaugural edition here, Finau and Wu made up a lot of ground to finish tied second, alongside Kurt Kitayama.

They were beaten by just a stroke having trailed by nine in a tie for 47^th at halfway and having sat tied seventh and seven back with a round to go.

If you're betting in running, there's a tough stretch around the turn (holes eight, nine and ten) and the 16^th and 17^th are both tricky but the par five finishing hole has averaged only 4.53, 4.59 and 4.47 in the last three years.

I'll be back later today or tomorrow with a look at the market leaders and a summary of any pre-event selections.

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Bank on Bhatia

Akshay Bhatia heads what is a weak looking market and rightly so.

The 23-year-old arrives in Mexico after a top ten finish in the Genesis Invitational last week and he's already shown an aptitude for the venue - finishing fourth on his only previous visit two years ago.

The two-time PGA Tour winner also finished 10^th in the World Wide Technology Championship and second at the Puerto Rico Open in 2023 in his only starts in the two events, so he ticks the course correlation box too.

Bhatia had finished ninth in the Barbasol Championship the week before he got off the mark at the Barracuda Championship in 2023 and he was 11^th in the Houston Open in the week before he won the Texas Open in March last year at another Greg Norman designed course, so he's telegraphed both of his first two PGA Tour titles and his tied ninth at Torrey Pines on Sunday bodes well.

The Sportsbook originally offered him up at 18/119.00 but unsurprisingly, that didn't last long.

Rasmus Hojgaard is next up as he bids to be the fifth European to win on the PGA Tour in six weeks.

The Dane loves desert golf, and he contended strongly at the Phoenix Open just two weeks ago (sat second with a round to go).

He also led the aforementioned Qatar Masters with a round to go last year before finishing sixth and he's been in fair form of late.

Having signed off 2024 with a second-place finish in the DP World Tour Championship, Rasmus has kicked off the year with a 14^th at the Dubai Desert Classic, a tied 22^nd in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a top 12 finish in Phoenix but last week's missed cut is a bit disconcerting given he shot rounds of 82 and 77 around the South Course.

Kurt Kitayama returns to the track for the first time since he was second here in 2022, but he has only ordinary form figures this year reading 37-58-MC-49 and the Farmers Insurance Open second, Sam Stevens, looks short enough given he missed the cut here on debut last year.

I'll have one or two longshot selections for the Find Me a 100 Winner column later today or tomorrow but for now, the favourite, Bhatia, is my sole selection.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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Read more golf tips, previews and analysis here

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