Magical Kenya Open: Pepperell is The Punter's pick at 89/1

• Strokes Gained: Approach & Tee to Green the key stats

• Qatar form could provide clues

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Tournament History

The Magical Kenya Open has been in existence since 1967 and it was won by some big names in the early days with the likes of Seve Ballesteros and Ian Woosnam both taking the title.

It was a mainstay on the Challenge Tour from 1991, but it switched to become a DP World Tour event for the very first time six years ago, although the 2020 edition was cancelled due to the pandemic.

After two editions at Karen Golf Course in Nairobi, the tournament remained in the capital, but it moved north to the Muthaiga Golf Club in 2022 and we're back there again this week for the fourth year in-a-row.

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Venue

Muthaiga Golf Club, Nairobi

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Course Details

Par 71 - 7,228

Stroke average in 2024 - 71.05

Positioned to the north of Nairobi and on the edge of the Karura Forest, Muthaiga Golf Club is a tree-lined track with water in play on numerous occasions.

M started life as a nine-hole course in 1913, with the second nine being added in 1926.

The front nine is laid out across undulating terrain and the back nine is routed around several man-made lakes.

The course was renovated in 2004-05 by Peter Matkovich, when the greens were all changed to bent grass, and the par three 13^th over water is considered the signature hole.

In addition to hosting this event over the last three years, Muthaiga hosted the inaugural Kenya Open in 1967 and it's staged the event over 40 times in total.

Although the course measures almost 7,200 yards, it doesn't play that long as Nairobi is around 1800 metres above sea level and the ball travels further in the thinner air. 

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Weather Forecast 

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 10:00 on Thursday

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Last Five Winners with Pre-event Prices

2024 - Darius van Driel -14 65.064/1
2023 - Jorge Campillo -18 50.049/1
2022 - Ashun Wu -16 80.079/1
2021 - Justin Harding -21 60.059/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Guido Migliozzi -16 150.0149/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Kenya Open?

We don't have any stats to look back on from the renewals staged here when the event was staged on the Challenge Tour but we do have stats for the last three editions to look back on so here's the top-five and ties with traditional and Strokes Gained stats.

2024
Darius van Driel -14 DA 10 DD 68 GIR 10 SC 3 PA 36
Joe Dean -12 DA 17 DD 27 GIR 14 SC 10 PA 32
Nacho Elvira -12 DA 54 DD 47 GIR 61 SC 7 PA 10
Manuel Elvira -11 DA 54 DD 44 GIR 1 SC 47 PA 19
Matthew Jordan -11 DA 54 DD 1 GIR 27 SC 40 PA 1
Adrian Otaegui -11 DA 5 DD 58 GIR 27 SC 22 PA 5

2023
Jorge Campillo -18 DA 3 DD 24 GIR 2 SC 9 PA 28
Masahiro Kawamura -16 DA 10 DD 46 GIR 36 SC 28 PA 3
Ryo Hisatsune -15 DA 15 DD 55 GIR 8 SC 16 PA 16
Santiago Tarrio -15 DA 31 DD 37 GIR 13 SC 2 PA 46
Lukas Nemecz -14 DA 31 DD 60 GIR 43 SC 1 PA 53
Borja Virto -14 DA 55 DD 17 GIR 31 SC 13 PA 10

2022
Ashun Wu -16 DA 28 DD 63 GIR 23 SC 14 PA 1
Aaron Cockerill -12 DA 6 DD 29 GIR 49 SC 40 PA 3
Thriston Lawrence -12 DA 67 DD 53 GIR 2 SC 68 PA 24
Hurly Long -12 DA 71 DD 56 GIR 20 SC 28 PA 9
David Horsey -11 DA 23 DD 55 GIR 9 SC 7 PA 28

Stats Key
DA = Driving Accuracy
DD = Driving Distance
GIR = Greens In Regulation
SC = Scrambling
PA = Putting Average

2024
Darius van Driel -14 Tee 32 App 8 ATG 22 T2G 5 P 18
Joe Dean -12 Tee 53 App 35 ATG 48 T2G 69 P 2
Nacho Elvira -12 Tee 55 App 18 ATG 20 T2G 29 P 13
Manuel Elvira -11 Tee 2 App 31 ATG 42 T2G 12 P 21
Matthew Jordan -11 Tee 5 App 29 ATG 33 T2G 11 P 23
Adrian Otaegui -11 Tee 52 App 11 ATG 15 T2G 14 P 28

2023
Jorge Campillo -18 Tee 37 App 5 ATG 33 T2G 7 P 12
Masahiro Kawamura -16 Tee 47 App 54 ATG 26 T2G 46 P 1
Ryo Hisatsune -15 Tee 23 App 28 ATG 49 T2G 27 P 6
Santiago Tarrio -15 Tee 31 App 14 ATG 9 T2G 5 P 33
Lukas Nemecz -14 Tee 71 App 11 ATG 4 T2G 9 P 34
Borja Virto -14 Tee 29 App 31 ATG 6 T2G 8 P 35

2022
Ashun Wu -16 Tee 62 App 4 ATG 28 T2G 4 P 4
Aaron Cockerill -12 Tee 22 App 31 ATG 72 T2G 79 P 1
Thriston Lawrence -12 Tee 5 App 21 ATG 53 T2G 6 P 22
Hurly Long -12 Tee 14 App 45 ATG 7 T2G 9 P 16
David Horsey -11 Tee 33 App 9 ATG 47 T2G 14 P 23

Stats Key
Tee = SG: Off the Tee
App = SG: Approach
ATG = SG: Around the Green
T2G = SG: Tee to Green
P = SG: Putting

It's only three years' worth of data but accuracy off the tee has been more important than distance and all three winners have ranked highly for Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Tee to Green.

That all makes sense given the tree-lined nature of the track.

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Is There an Angle In?

There are various form lines at other tree-lined tracks.

Aaron Rai won his first pro title here in 2017 and a few shrewdies were onboard when he won his first DP World Tour event a year later at a similar venue - Fanling in Hong Kong.

As many as three Muthaiga winners - Seve Ballesteros, Ian Woosnam and Trevor Immelman - have won the US Masters at Augusta and back in the day, form at Wentworth correlated nicely too.

Seve and Woosie both won multiple PGA Championships at Surrey's finest, and Immelman lost a playoff there in 2003. Guy Wolstenholme won the inaugural staging of the Kenya Open here but the 1974 Wentworth winner, Maurice Bembridge, won the next two editions and there are numerous examples of players placing at both venues.

Other courses to consider are Valderrama and Crans-sur-Sierre, with the latter named proving a good link three years ago.

Wu finished ninth and sixth in his first two appearances in Switzerland at the European Masters at Crans and Thriston Lawrence, who finished tied second behind Wu in 2022 here, beat Matt Wallace in extra time to with the European Masters in August 2022.

Like Muthaiga, Crans is tree-lined and positioned at high altitude so form there is clearly worth plenty but rather bizarrely, the Qatar Masters has thrown up some crossover form.

Wu led there after round one last year before eventually finishing ninth, Ewen Ferguson, who led here by four stokes with a round to go when Wu won, was victorious at the Qatar Masters in 2022 and the 2023 winner here, Jorge Campillo, has a very solid bank of form at Doha and he was an unlucky loser there last year.

Matthew Jordan, who finished tied for fourth here last year, finished 10^th at Doha two weeks ago, having sat third with a round to go.

That could all be entirely coincidental but given the Qatar Masters was the most recent event staged on the DP World Tour, it may be something to consider.

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Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Darius van Driel - tied for the lead 4.47/2
2022 - Ashun Wu - tied 2^nd trailing by four 10.09/1
2023 - Jorge Campillo led by one 3.3512/5

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In-Play Tactics

Darius van Driel won wire-to-wire last year but in 15 previous events here since 1996, no first-round leaders had gone on to win and history tells us a slow start at Muthaiga can be overcome.

Jens Fahrbring lost a playoff here in 2018, having trailed by ten at halfway, and the 1997 and 2001 Challenge Tour winners, Jorge Berendt and Ashley Roestaff, like two of the last three winners of this event, Wu and Campillo, sat five adrift after 36 holes.

Darius van Driel was tied at the top with Manuel Elvira after three rounds last year and Campillo led by a stroke in 2023 but this isn't a great place for 54-hole leaders. 

Ewen Ferguson led by four strokes with a round to go three years ago (Wu sat tied second) but he eventually finished tied eighth and since 1996, only four of the 12 men to hold a clear lead here with 18 to play have gone on to win

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Market Leaders

 

As a demonstration of just how wide open this year's renewal is, Sebastian Soderberg is the only player trading at less than 25/126.00.

The 2019 Omega European Open winner also won twice on the HotelPlanner Tour, including this event at Karen in 2016, and he was in contention here two years later when he led by two with a round to go before a sorry 74 on Sunday saw him slip to sixth.

The Swede clearly enjoys playing in Kenya and he's highly likely to contend. But can he be trusted if he does?

He's failed to convert when leading with a round to go three times on the DP World Tour and his final rounds have been lamentable.

He shot 75 in round four at the Wales Open in 2020 to fall from tied first to fifth, 72 at the China Open last year to go from two clear to three back, and he somehow managed to give up an eight-stroke lead in his homeland at the Scandinavian Mixed in June last year.

The 2023 winner, Jorge Campillo, who didn't defend his title 12 months ago, is next up but with 2025 form figures reading MC-MC-13-50, he's hard to fancy. The recent Qatar Masters winner, Haotong Li, represents better value.

The prolific Chinese star converted in fine fashion two weeks ago, but he's never played here before and I have my doubts as to whether he'll be straight enough off the tee.

I may yet back the out-of-form Spaniard, Adrian Otaegui, if he drifts considerably before the off, as he very often does, but for now my sole selection is Eddie Pepperell.

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Pepperell The Punter's pick

 

The 2018 Qatar Masters winner will be disappointed with his missed cut at Doha a fortnight ago as he played well before that and again last week.

The 34-year-old Englishman had led through rounds one, two and three before finishing ninth at the Mauritius Open just before Christmas and he was sixth last week at the Dimension Data Pro-Am on the Sunshine Tour.

Pepperell missed the cut on his first appearance at Muthaiga back in 2022, but he finished 23^rd last year when not playing brilliantly at the time, and the venue really should suit his straight tee game.

His form is inconsistent but on the last six occasions he's made the cut on the DP World Tour, he's ranked 27^th, fourth, 20^th, 17^th, 12^th and first for Driving Accuracy. He ranked seventh and eighth for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach in Mauritius and, as highlighted above, they've been the key stats here over the last three years.

My only other selections are both priced up at triple-figures and will be detailed in the Find Me a 100 Winner column shortly.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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