The Punter's In-Play Blog: Thomas takes over at the top

• Thomas looks to end drought at Albany

• Scheffler still heads the market with a round to go

• Bradley the value from four adrift

11:50 - December 8, 2024

Scottie Scheffler entered the weekend leading the Hero World Challenge by two strokes but with a round to go, it's Justin Thomas that shows the way after a bogey-free six-under-par 66 on Moving Day. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:40.

Justin Thomas -17 2.466/4
Scottie Scheffler -16 2.35/4
Tom Kim -15 8.615/2
Keegan Bradley -14 42.041/1
Akshay Bhatia -12 95.094/1
Sahith Theegala -12 95.094/1
-9 and 710.0709/1 bar

Thomas hasn't won since he came from way off the pace to claim his second US PGA Championship in May 2022 and this is the first time he's led with a round to go since he failed from the front three times in 2020, so it makes sense that Scheffler still heads the market.

Given Thomas' lengthy drought, Scheffler is still the man to beat but it certainly isn't just a two-man race.

Rickie Fowler won the 2017 edition here having trailed by seven with a round to go and Viktor Hovland was six off the lead through 54 holes in 2021.

Both men were aided greatly by poor final rounds by the clear leaders. Charley Hoffman in 2017 and Collin Morikawa three years ago, had both led by five!

I'm obviously happy to have Scheffler onside from the get-go but given we've seen a couple of odd final rounds here, I was more than happy to add the US Ryder Cup captain, Keegan Bradley, at 42.041/1.

He won the Travelers Championship from the front last year and he was leading by a stroke after three rounds before he won the BMW Championship in August but he won his first five PGA Tour titles from off the pace.

He's won from three adrift and twice from four back, so he'll know he's still in the race.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, we've seen some strange things happen here and Bradley looks fractionally big at around 40/141.00.

15:30 - December 7, 2024

It doesn't matter how tough the conditions are, elite level pros are always capable of shooting a great round and it was the 20-year-old South African, Alderich Potgieter, that showed the rest how to do it in round three of the Nedbank Golf Challenge.

On another tough day at the Gary Player Club, Potgieter managed to shoot an incredibly impressive bogey-free six-under-par 66, which included this remarkable eagle three at the par five 14^th.

What a golf shot from Aldrich Potgieter... but you'd never know #NGC2024 pic.twitter.com/JpxWEQHn8M

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) December 7, 2024

Potgieter's brilliant knock was one stroke better than the pre-event favourite Corey Connors' 67 and three strokes better than anyone else could muster and having been a 70.069/1 chance at halfway when trailing by four, he now heads the market with 18 to play.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 15:25.

Alderich Potgieter -7 2.9215/8
Matthew Jordan -4 9.89/1
Francesco Laporta -4 11.010/1
Max Homa -3 10.519/2
Jordan Smith -3 13.5
Romain Langasque -3 26.025/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -2 20.019/1
Mackenzie Hughes -2 27.026/1
Johannes Veerman -2 40.039/1
Andy Sullivan -2 50.049/1
Julien Guerrier -2 50.049/1
Ockie Strydom -2 75.074/1
Pablo Larrazabal -2 80.079/1
Corey Conners -1 34.033/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -1 46.045/1
-1 and 180.0179/1 bar

Although only 20, the leader already has a decent pedigree, and he could prove tricky to catch tomorrow.

He beat Sam Bairstow 4&2 in the Amateur Championship final as a 17-year-old at Lytham St Annes in 2022 and having turned pro in June last year, he became the youngest winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in January when he came from five back to win the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic.

There are one or two negatives that suggest he might be short enough at less than 2/13.00 though.

He needs to back up today's brilliant round, he's never before led with a round to go on any tour and looking back through his results, there have been occasions when he's struggled a bit in-contention.

Just two weeks after winning from off the pace on the KF Tour, he led the Astara Golf Championship at halfway but finished only 20^th, he then finished 10^th at the Boise Open in August, having sat second, trailing by a stroke with a round to go, and he was only two off the lead with a round to go last time out at the Australian PGA Championship but a 71 on Sunday saw him slip to eighth.

I'm happy to swerve the leader given the above and I'm going to leave the event alone for now.

I was tempted by the two Canadians, Mackenzie Hughes and Corey Conners, but given I've already backed four in-running, I'm happy to monitor the two in-running tomorrow.

Over at the Hero World Challenge, the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, has eased two clear at the halfway stage and he's already been matched at as low as 1.42/5.

Having backed him before the off, I'm going to leave the event alone and see what today brings.

18:00 - December 6, 2024

The defending champ, Max Homa, was matched at as low as 2.3211/8 to win the Nedbank Golf Challenge after he'd reached eight-under-par for the event when he birdied the two par fives around the turn in round two today but as the day wore on, relentless sun and wind dried the Gary Player Country Club course up to such an extent that it was a case of survival on the back-nine.

Almost everyone was struggling in the tough conditions and Homa played his last seven holes in five-over-par to lose the lead. He's still clinging on to favouritism but only just. Here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back at 17:50.

Julien Guerrier -5 7.26/1
Romain Langasque -4 11.521/2
Ockie Strydom -4 34.033/1
Max Homa -3 7.06/1
Johannes Veerman -3 14.013/1
Matthew Jordan -3 15.5
Andy Sullivan -3 18.5
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -2 10.519/2
Laurie Canter -2 19.5
Paul Waring -2 24.023/1
Frederic Lacroix -2 40.039/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -1 23.022/1
-1 and 46.045/1 bar

It's going to be fascinating to see how the course is set up tomorrow.

The forecast suggests conditions won't be any easier so I suspect the greens will be watered and the pin positions will be reasonably kind or there could be carnage.

It's stating the obvious given it's 6/17.00 the field with only two rounds to go but this is an extremely tough tournament to call.

Homa could well bounce back tomorrow but given he's undergoing swing changes and that he's struggled for much of the year, he's more likely not to.

There's been plenty of money for home hero, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, since the close of play and he's shortened up from around 13.012/1 to 10.09/1, but I can see why.

At halfway, he ranks third for one of the key stats here, Scrambling, and I was happy to get him onside modestly at 12.011/1 but whether he's value at a couple of ticks shorter now is debatable.

In addition to Bez, I've also backed Ockie Strydom at 36.035/1 and Frenchman, Frederic Lacroix, at 42.041/1.

Strydom was matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off but he can't be underestimated with just two rounds to go.

After years of underachievement and a few near misses, he was a 180.0179/1 chance when winning next week's event, the Alfred Dunhill Championship, two years ago and he went off at 120.0119/1 when winning the Singapore Classic in February last year.

He performed better than his playing partners today in the final three ball and he's too big at 36.035/1 given he trails by just a stroke and that he's seeking his third DP World Tour title in two years.

This feels like a tournament in which you can chance a few outsiders, and I was also happy to play this year's impressive Danish Championship winner, Frederic Lacroix, at a big price.

Trailing by only three strokes in a tie for eighth, the Frenchman ranks first for Greens In Regulation at halfway and he too looks too big.

Round two of the Hero World Challenge is already underway and the world number one, pre-event favourite, and defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, is making a move, birdying the first three holes to hit the front and to hit odds-on.

Having backed him before the off at 3.55, I'm more than happy to sit on my hands for now and see where we are at halfway.

18:25 - December 5, 2024

A year after winning the Nedbank Golf Challenge on debut, the defending champ and pre-event 20.019/1 chance, Max Homa, leads after day one of this year's renewal following a six-under-par 66.

After a fast start, he looked like finishing tardily with bogeys at 13 and 15 but he finished brilliantly with back-to-back birdies at 17 and 18.

It was a fabulous finish given the par four finishing holes averaged 4.29 and 4.27 and that they ranked as the first and second hardest holes on the course today.

Homa now trades at a shade below 5/23.50 to repeat last year's feat and that looks short enough given he's working on some swing changes after parting company with his swing coach, Mark Blackburn, after finishing dead last at the FedEx St Jude in September.

It's been a poor year for Homa since he finished third in the US Masters and having ranked inside the top-10, he's now down to 35^th in the Official World Rankings, and he said after today's round that finding some form ahead of the PGA Tour is the priority, not winning this week's event.

It's a great start, but will he be able to sustain the improved form for four days?

Playing in tomorrow's final three-ball, alongside Homa and Ockie Strydom, who shot -5, will be Spanish veteran, Pablo Larrazabal, who posted three-under-par today, and I'm happy to add him to the portfolio at a whopping 95.094/1.

His nine wins on the DP World Tour already include two wins in co-sanctioned events in South Africa and he's no bigger than 55/156.00 on the High Street.

Cam Young is the early pacesetter at the Hero World Challenge, and I'll take a look at that event tomorrow. The live coverage begins on Sky Sports any minute.

Nedbank In-Play Picks:
Pablo Larrazabal @ 95.094/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 12.011/1
Ockie Strydom @ 36.035/1
Frederic Lacroix @ 42.041/1

Hero In-Play Pick:
Keegan Bradley @ 42.041/1

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