Hero World Challenge: Scheffler fancied to double up

• Phoenix Open form well worth considering

• Great venue for Sunday trading

• Read my Nedbank Golf Challenge preview here

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Tournament History

The Hero World Challenge was first staged at Greyhawk Golf Club in 1999.

It moved to the Sherwood Country Club in California in 2000 and remained there for the next 14 years before it switched from west to east and to the Isleworth Golf and Country Club in Florida ten years ago, when Jordan Spieth won by an incredible ten strokes.

It moved further south to the Ernie Els designed Albany Course in the Bahamas in 2015 and it's been there ever since, although we missed the 2020 edition because of the pandemic.

The Hero World Challenge is a limited invitation only event with a small but high-class field.

Tiger Woods is the tournament host, but he won't be in the field this year due to injury.

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Venue

Albany, New Province, Bahamas

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Course Details

Par 72, 7,302 yards

The Ernie Els designed Albany course only opened in 2010 and it was used for a professional tournament for the first time when hosting this event nine years ago.

It's a par 72 but with five par fives, five par threes and eight par fours, it's a little different from most par 72s as they usually have four long and short holes and ten par fours.

It's an exposed flat links-style course with dunes up to 30 feet tall and the TifEagle Bermuda greens, that usually run at around 12 on the stimpmeter, are fairly small.

Here's what the designer had to say about his creation prior to the off in 2015.

"It's a very special golf course. If I were trying to paint an outline mental picture for anyone, I'd say think of a mix between maybe Royal Birkdale and the Els Club Dubai. The bunkering is another particularly strong feature and is partly inspired by one of my favourite types of golf course, the Australian sand-belt classics such as Royal Melbourne."

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 18:30 on Thursday

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The eight Albany winners with Pre-event Prices

2023 - Scottie Scheffler -20 6.611/2
2022 - Viktor Hovland -16 21.020/1
2021 - Viktor Hovland -18 12.5
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Henrik Stenson -18 42.041/1
2018 - Jon Rahm -20 15.014/1
2017 - Rickie Fowler -18 11.010/1
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama -18 10.09/1
2015 - Bubba Watson -25 13.012/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Hero World Challenge?

No stats are produced for this event for some reason, so we're hindered to a certain degree but current form is something to consider.

Henrik Stenson was winning his first event in more than two years when he took the title here in 2019 but he's by some distance the biggest priced winner at Albany.

Although he had finished fifth in both the BMW Championship and the ZOZO Championship, after failing to convert a 54-hole lead at the Open Championship in July, the 2022 winner, Viktor Hovland, who was defending the title, had been a bit quiet, but every other winner at this venue, and most of the winners of this tournament, have been bang in form.

Last year's winner, Scottie Scheffler, had successfully defended his Phoenix Open title and won the Players Championship in the spring and he'd ticked over nicely all year after that, finishing inside the first three seven times without winning, and prior to his first win here in 2021, Hovland had won the World Wide Technology Championship in his previous start and the man that really should have won, Collin Morikawa, who traded at as short as 1.081/12 in-running before finishing fifth, had won the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai on his previous outing.

Jon Rahm had just finished fourth defending the DP World Tour Championship title when he won six years ago, Rickie Fowler had finished second in the World Wide Technology Championship in his previous start before winning in 2017 and Hideki Matsuyama was winning his fourth tournament in five starts seven years ago.

Bubba Watson was in fine fettle when he won in 2015, having just finished third in Japan, following a decent run in the FedEx Cup, and Jordan Spieth had been red-hot when he won this in 2015 in the final event before it moved to the Bahamas.

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Phoenix Open the event to concentrate on?

Links form stands up very nicely here, but previous course experience isn't essential and Hovland, and the man that should have won three years ago, Morikawa, ticked both those boxes emphatically.

Both were playing here for the first time in 2021 and they both have links form at the Open Championship. Morikawa won the Open in 2021 and as already mentioned, Hovland was tied for the lead after 54 holes at St Andrews in 2022 before eventually finishing fourth.

Scheffler now has Albany form figures reading 2-2-1 but Rahm had never played here before when he won in 2018 and neither had the runner-up, Tony Finau, or the first-round leader and eventual fifth, Patrick Cantlay, but those three, and all the winners here, have good form in the desert.

Hovland, for example, contended strongly at the DP World Tour Championship last year and he won the Dubai Desert Classic in 2022.

Hovland has form figures at the Phoenix Open reading MC-MC-42, so he doesn't boost the link at all but that's an event that looks worth considering.

Scheffler has won two of the last three editions of the Phoenix Open, Rahm has Phoenix Open form figures reading 5-16-11-10-9-13-10-3, Fowler and Matsuyama have both won the Phoenix Open and Bubba Watson has an eighth, a fifth, a fourth and two seconds in the event so the Phoenix Open looks a very solid guide and so does the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.

Had Morikawa not messed up from five in front with a round to go in 2022, three winners in-a-row would have also won the DP World Tour Championship and Hovland may well have won last year's renewal had his putter behaved. He missed three putts inside seven feet on Sunday before finishing tied for second.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

There were one or two reasonably long priced winners at Sherwood and Stenson was relatively unfancied five years ago, but the previous five winners were all very well fancied before the off. Hovland was a 12.5 chance in 2021 and a 20/121.00 chance two years ago, Scheffler was well-fancied last year and when Rahm went off at 14/115.00 six years ago he was the biggest priced winner in five renewals.

Concentrating on the front of the market has been the way to go here.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Scottie Scheffler - led by three 1.364/11
2022 - Viktor Hovland - led by three 1.75/7
2021 - Viktor Hovland - tied third - trailing by six 26.025/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Henrik Stenson - solo second - trailing by a stroke 6.611/2
2018 - John Rahm - tied for the lead 3.45
2017 - Rickie Fowler - tied fifth - trailing by seven 30.029/1
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama - led by seven 1.182/11
2016 - Bubba Watson - led by three 1.654/6

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In-Play Tactics

Spieth won by ten strokes at Isleworth ten years ago and the first four winners here won by a clear margin too.

Watson only won by three and Matsuyama by two in the first two editions here but both men were further clear than that at various stages.

Scheffler was in front and trading at odds-on by halfway two years ago and Hovland became the first first-round leader to win at Albany when he defended the title wire-to-wire three years ago but that wasn't as straightforward as his two-stroke margin success suggests and despite the runaway wins here, this is a quirky track where strange things can happen.

Scheffler's victory was straightforward last year but Hovland was matched at just 1.021/50 as he led by four on the back-nine two years but long odds-on backers were given an almighty scare at the last.

Birdies at 14, 15 and 16 saw Scheffler close the gap back down to two with two to play but after he and Hovland made matching pars at 17, his late charge didn't look like being enough.

Hovland was still in the driving seat as they stood on the 18^th tee but he very nearly crashed!

A poor drive by the Norwegian left him in a tricky spot above a fairway bunker in the rough before he hit this approach into the water.

Two-shot lead, but in the water on 18.

Viktor Hovland is making things interesting. pic.twitter.com/mVgjYqPUPn

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) December 4, 2022

The door was ajar for Scheffler but from a great position in the fairway he hit his seven-iron approach into a waste area and Hovland drained a lengthy bogey putt to win by two.

Hovland survived, with a lot of thanks to Scheffler, but two of the last six 54-hole leaders have thrown away huge leads.

Charley Hoffman led by five with a round to go (trading at around 1.75/7) seven years ago before Fowler came from seven strokes back and trading at 30.029/1 to win. Having been matched in running at 60.059/1, Fowler fired an amazing 11-under-par 61 to win by four!

And we witnessed all sorts of carnage in 2021 when the pre-event 8/19.00 favourite, Morikawa, threw away a five-stroke lead with a round to go.

Having been a 1.282/7 chance on Sunday morning, Morikawa was matched at a low of just 1.081/12 before he lost his ball on the fourth and we finished up witnessing five different players take the lead on Sunday before Hovland, who was matched at 180.0179/1 in-running, finally assumed command late on with back-to-back eagles at 14 and 15.

Away from Morikawa's collapse, there were also all sorts of dramas with plenty of other players in the field...

Scottie Scheffler would have won but for a triple-bogey seven at the fourth hole on Sunday (he was matched at 1000.0999/1 after that and before a late rally) and Sam Burns tripled the 14th in round four to highlight just how easy it is to rack up a big number here.

The first-round leaders in 2021, Rory McIlroy, Abraham Ancer and Daniel Berger, finished 18th, 14th and tied for seventh, the halfway leader, Bryson DeChambeau, shot three-over on the weekend to finish tied for 14th and Morikawa's closest challenger with a round to go, Brook Koepka, shot 74 on Sunday to finish tied for ninth!

Last year's result was very straightforward, but all sorts can happen here, and it can be a great event in which to trade positions.

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Scheffler a fair price to double up

Although he'd played in the Ryder Cup at the end of September, having not played an individual stroke play event in just over three months, Scheffler took a little while to get going last year and he was matched at 19.018/1 after he'd played his first six holes in two-over-par, but it was all over bar the shouting when he led by three after 54 holes.

He's taken the same amount of time off this year, having not played since his facile four-stroke victory in the Tour Championship, so there's a chance that he takes his time to get going on Thursday but at odds of 5/23.50 or better, he looks a very solid bet.

Those are the sort of odds we were seeing about the world number one in full field events in the summer and this is a decidedly weak looking renewal of the Hero.

Given he's won eight of his last 15 events, and that he has Albany form figures reading 2-2-1, I'm quite surprised he's not shorter than 2/13.00 and I'm happy to play him before the off.

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Dunlap chanced at a juicy price

As mentioned in this week's Find Me a 100 Winner column, in addition to backing Scheffler, I've also had a few pounds on Nick Dunlap at 65.064/1.

He's playing Albany for the first time, but he should take to the course.

He hasn't played in the Phoenix Open yet, but he won the American Express as an amateur in January and that's another event played in the desert.

The 20-year-old followed that first win with victory at the Barracuda Championship in July and he was fifth at the St Jude Championship just three starts ago.

Course debutants often fare well so he looks a very reasonable price given he's won two of his last 22 starts.

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Now read my Nedbank Challenge preview here

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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