Genesis Invitational 2026: Rose the Riviera value at 64/1

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What happened last week? Morikawa wins after hitting 809/1

Akshay Bhatia, who traded at a low of 1.422/5 after a fast start to his third round at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on Saturday, led by two with 18 to play but as highlighted in the In-Play Blog, I didn't fancy his chances.

Laying him in the Top 5 Finish market at long odds-on paid off when he could only par the 18^th to finish tied for sixth but it was a frustrating finish overall.

Nico Echavarria, who I backed each-way at 275/1276.00 on Sunday morning, got to within a stroke of the lead when he holed his second shot on the par four 11^th hole and he was matched in the win market on the Exchange at a low of 18.017/1 but after missing a 10 foot birdie putt at the par five 14^th, he bogeyed the 15^th and that was the end of that. The Colombian eventually finished tied for eighth.

For the second event in-a-row, Scottie Scheffler, started deplorably on Thursday, missing far too many putts in round one at Spyglass Hill and he was matched in the outright market at as high as 490.0489/1 during the third round.

Trailing Bhatia by eight, Scheffler was generally a 150.0149/1 chance with 18 to play but after a scintillating start, the world number one hit a low of 3.185/40 and but for a scruffy back-nine, he may well have won.

He played his first 11 holes in eight-under-par, despite bogeying the eighth and two further bogeys, at 12 and 15 proved costly given he eventually lost by two.

Having been matched at as high as 810.0809/1 at halfway, pre-event 70.069/1 chance, Collin Morikawa, started the final round trailing by two after a 10-under-par 62 on Saturday which saw him climb 25 places up the leaderboard.

The 29-year-old Californian was a 6.411/2 chance with 18 to play but it's never easy to back up a low round and he didn't look the likely winner after playing his first six holes on Sunday in level par.

Morikawa drifted back out to 19.537/2 before back-to-back birdies at five and six put him back on track but a duffed chip on the par five 14^h was followed by a poor approach on the 15^th and it looked like he may drift back out of the lead before this lengthy birdie putt at 15 put him in command.

Collin Morikawa!

A 30 foot birdie on 15 gives him the solo lead @ATTProAm.

CBS pic.twitter.com/KKbOAmmi4Z

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 15, 2026

A birdie at 16 was followed by a bogey at the tough par three 17^th but he kept his nerve nicely to birdie the par five 18^th to win by one and to become the fifth Open winner to win the AT&T this century.

It was hard to begrudge the likable Morikawa the victory, and he announced straight after the win that he and his wife were expecting, but it felt like a tournament that could have been so much better for me.

Having backed him before the off, Scheffler's slow start again was irritating and so too was the finish by my only other pre-event pick, the 75.074/1 chance, Sepp Straka.

Having begun the day alongside Morikawa, the Austrian played poorly in round four, but he finished in style, birdying 16 and 17 before eagling the last to finish tied for second with Min Woo Lee, beaten by just one.

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Genesis Invitational Tournament History

In existence since 1926, and originally known as the Los Angeles Open, the Genesis Invitational has always attracted a fantastic field and now that it's been elevated to Signature Event status the quality of the lineup is even stronger.

As many as 18 of the world's top 20 will head to Riviera Country Club which up until 12 months ago had been the host venue since 1999.

Following last January's wildfires in Pacific Palisades, the 2025 edition was staged at the South Course at Torrey Pines, but we're back to the event's usual venue this time around where Ludvig Aberg will attempt to defend the title.

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Venue

Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, California

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Course Details

Par 71, 7322 yards
Stroke index in 2024 - 70.1

Riviera has several interesting quirks. There's a bunker in the middle of the par three 6th green, the 10th is a drivable par four, and the fairways are blanketed in kikuyu - a tough strain of grass imported from Africa over 80 years ago.

Polo was a popular sport in LA back then and kikuyu was used on the polo grounds in the area, so it wasn't long before it invaded and took over Riviera. The kikuyu makes for perfect lies on the narrow fairways, perching the ball up high on its stiff leaves, but it's a different story if you find the rough. The grass grabs and buries the ball and control out of the thick stuff is often minimal.

Many of the holes are doglegs and the fairways are tough to find with regularity, as are the Poa annua greens that typically run at around 12.5 on the Stimpmeter.

Traditionally, these are often some of the hardest greens to find on the PGA Tour all season and in 13 of the last 15 editions here the scoring average has been over-par.

The 2022 scoring average of 70.46 was the lowest average since basic records began in 1984 but it played slightly easier again in 2023, averaging 70.1.

Riviera is a classic, traditional, and tough course.

The par four 10^th measures only 315 yards but there's only been 16 eagles made there during the last seven renewals. There was just one made in 2018, '19 and '21, four in 2020, five in 2022 and just two in both 2023 and 2024.

It averaged 3.82 two years ago so although short, it's far from simple.

In contrast, the par five opening hole is ridiculously simple. It averaged only 4.23 on the last occasion the event was staged here two years ago and there were 16 eagles recorded there throughout the week. 

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 14:30 on Thursday

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Prices

2025 - Ludvig Aberg -12 30.029/1 (Torrey Pines)
2024 - Hideki Matsuyama -17 110.0109/1
2023 - Jon Rahm -17 10.09/1
2022 - Joaquin Niemann -19 65.064/1
2021 - Max Homa -12 80.079/1 (playoff)
2020 - Adam Scott -11 40.039/1
2019 - J.B Holmes -14 250.0249/1
2018 - Bubba Watson -12 85.084/1
2017 - Dustin Johnson -17 9.617/2
2016 - Bubba Watson -15 29.028/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Genesis?

Although the rough is tricky to play from, the figures suggest hitting it straight of the tee isn't absolutely imperative here.

The last three course winners have ranked only 27^th, 63^rd and 58^th for Driving Accuracy and four of the five winners before 2022 ranked no better than 27^th, although the 2021 winner, Max Homa, ranked third.

Rahm ranked as high as sixth for Driving Distance in 2023 and Will Zalatoris, who finished fourth, and Keith Mitchell in fifth, ranked first and second for DD, but length is far from vital given the two winners before Rahm ranked 64^th and 59^th for DD. Matsuyama ranked 27^th two years ago.

The driving stats can largely be ignored and the two stats to consider are Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

The last eight course winners have ranked 2-14-1-7-2-1-5-6 for GIR and 3-1-2-2-11-3-3 for SG: T2G.

And on the greens, the last eight winners have ranked 7-2-16-13-6-15-1-6 for Putting Average and 12-26-3-21-1-27-7-3 for Strokes Gained: Putting.

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Is There an Angle In?

This is a fabulous venue and a tough examination so it's no surprise to see that major winners have a fantastic record. Riviera has hosted the event 61 times now and a major winner has won on 36 occasions, although the US Masters is far and away the major championship that correlates the best.

Jon Rahm followed his win here in 2023 with victory at Augusta less than two months later and Matsuyama won here in 2024 three years after winning the US Masters.

In total, 14 different US Masters winners have won 24 of the 61 renewals of the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.

Four-time Riviera winner, Macdonald Smith, was 44 when he played in the inaugural US Masters in 1934 (his only appearance) but he still finished seventh and although he never won the Masters, the only other man to win this title four times, Lloyd Mangrum, had an incredibly good record at Augusta.

Mangrum finished second there on debut in 1940 and he finished inside the top-ten for ten years in-a-row between 1947 and 1956. The fact that the tournament didn't even exist for the bulk of his career is the reason why Smith didn't win the Masters and the Second World War was a huge hinderance to Mangrum.

When he won here for the third time eight years ago, Bubba Watson became the fifth to win it at least three times, and Bubba, Ben Hogan, and Arnold Palmer, also won the US Masters more than once.

Phil Mickelson, Sam Snead, & Tom Watson have also won this event and the US Masters at least twice so Augusta really is a great guide.

Previous course form is a big plus. Niemann won on his fourth start here four years ago and James Hahn won here on his third Riviera start nine years ago but they're the only winners in the last 20 years to have played here less than four times previously.

Although Riviera and the PGA National Golf Club in Florida - home of the Cognizant Classic - aren't in the least bit alike, form at the two venues correlates nicely but Quail Hollow is the most interesting correlating course.

Following wins for Homa in 2021, J.B Holmes seven years ago and James Hahn in 2015, three of the last nine Genesis winners have also won the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow. And all three were matched at a triple-figure price before the off!

Homa was matched at a high of 120.0119/1, Holmes touched 400.0399/1 and Hahn was unconsidered 600.0599/1 chance.

Matsuyama hasn't won at Quail, but he traded at odds-on there during round four of the USPGA Championship there in 2017 and the man that beat him there nine years ago, Justin Thomas, really should have won here. He was matched at as low as 1.182/11 after he'd led the 2019 edition by four with a round to go.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Major winners may have won on many occasions but there's no getting away from the fact that outsiders can and do prosper here regularly. 

Matsuyama went off at a triple-figure price two years ago and the 2022 winner, Niemann, was well tipped up but he was matched at 100.099/1 when the market first opened.

The 2021 winner, Max Homa, was generally an 80.079/1 chance before the off but he too was matched at triple-figures, and the 2019 winner, Holmes, was generally a 250.0249/1 chance, having been matched at a high of 400.0399/1 before the off, despite having very respectable course form figures reading 51-7-6-3-12-8-MC-52-22-11-24-60. And even though he'd won two of the previous four renewals, Bubba Watson was an 80.079/1 chance eight years ago.

Scott Brown finished joint second 10 years ago, having been matched at 910.0909/1 before the off, and he was matched at 1000.0999/1 when finishing second again in 2020. Prior to Holmes' win, three of the previous eight winners were very difficult to spot, and it could very easily have been four from eight...

Hahn was an unconsidered 600.0599/1 shot 11 years ago. John Merrick was matched at 800.0799/1 before the off when he beat 1000.0999/1 shot, Charlie Beljan, in a playoff in 2013, very few will have picked out triple-figure priced Aaron Baddeley in 2011, and Jason Kokrak, who was matched at 510.0509/1 before the off a decade ago, led by two with four to play before losing out by a stroke to Bubba.

Despite the strength of the field now that it's a Signature Event, given the tournament's recent history, I wouldn't put anyone off throwing a few pounds at a couple of outsiders. 

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Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2025 - Ludvig Aberg - trailing by two 4.216/5 (Torrey Pines)
2024 - Hideki Matsuyama - trailing by six 170.0169/1
2023 - Jon Rahm - led by two strokes 1.42/5
2022 - Joaquin Niemann - led by three 1.434/9
2021 - Max Homa T2nd - trailing by two 9.28/1
2020 - Adam Scott tied for lead with two others 4.94/1
2019 - J.B Holmes T2nd - trailing by four 17.016/1
2018 - Bubba Watson led by a stroke 4.03/1
2017 - Dustin Johnson led by a stroke 2.265/4
2016 - Bubba Watson led by a stroke 4.131/10

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In-Play Tactics

Rahm was always inside the front three and never more than a stroke off the lead three years and Niemann won wire-to-wire four years ago. The three winners before Adam Scott in 2020 were also all up with the pace throughout but prior to 2022, Dustin Johnson in 2017 was the only 36-hole leader or co-leader to win since Phil Mickelson back in 2008. Scott trailed by eight in a tie for 65^th after round one in 2020 and he's far from the first to win here after a sluggish start.

Bubba Watson was so far back at halfway in 2014 (tied 40th) that he needed back-to-back rounds of 64 to win by two. He was eight strokes back at halfway and still four behind after three rounds and Matsuyama was also eight adrift at halfway and he was still six off the lead with just 18 to play.

Having been trading at 170.0169/1 after 54 holes, Matsuyama shot 62 on Sunday to win by three so you can clearly win from off the pace at Riviera.

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Rose the Riviera value

I've backed Scottie Scheffler again, this time at 4.77/2.

His putting has let him down on day one in his last two starts but it's only a matter of time before he gets into gear on Thursday and wins again so having backed him at the Phoenix Open and again last week, I'm hoping it's going to be third time lucky this week.

Scheffler is far more prolific than his pre-event odds suggest and as a two-time US Masters winner, it's probably only a matter of time before he wins here.

It took him a couple of starts to get to grips with the venue but that's the case with almost everyone that plays here so his course form numbers, reading MC-30-20-7-12-10, are perfectly respectable.

We've already seen Patrick Reed win twice on the DP World Tour and Chris Gotterup win twice on the PGA Tour so the fact that Justin Rose has just trotted up at the Farmers Insurance Open doesn't put me off the veteran Englishman.

He followed that win up with a 37^th place at Pebble Beach on Sunday but his stats were still good.

In his last two starts, he's ranked first and 28^th for Putting Average and first and seventh for Greens In Regulation and he's shown form here previously too, finishing ninth in 2011 and fourth in 2017.

Rose doesn't tick the US Masters winner box, but he's finished runner-up twice at Augusta, losing in extra time to Sergio Garcia in 2017 and again last year to Rory McIlroy.

His victory down the California coast at Torrey Pines at the start of the month was an incredible performance but the market appears to have forgotten it already.

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