Canadian Open: Rory a very fair price at 11/2

• Brand-new TPC venue awaits

• Will Rory rack up the hattrick?

• Read my KLM Open preview here

Tournament History

The Canadian Open dates all the way back to 1904. It's the third oldest national open and prior to the establishment of the PGA Tour it was one of the most prestigious tournaments in the world - often referred to as the fifth major. 

It's a nomadic event and this year we take in a brand-new venue - the TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley - and before a ball's even been struck at this year's renewal, the impressive looking new Home of Canadian Golf, has already been confirmed as the tournament's venue in 2026.

Venue

The North Course, TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, Caledon, Ontario

Course Details

Par 70, 7, 389 yards

The TPC Toronto is Canada's first Tournament Players Club and this week's host course, the North Course, is one of three at the public facility hosting the event for the very first time.

The North Course was originally designed by Doug Carrick in 2001 but after joining the TPC network in 2018, the course was extensively renovated by Ian Andrew (who used to work for Carrick) in 2023, with an ethos of focusing on transforming the course from being a public course where a championship could be held to a championship course that the public could play.

The North Course is a parkland course with wide Bentgrass/Poa Annua fairways and greens.

The Canadian Open website here is excellent with lots of information about the course, detailing every hole.

Taylor Pendrith, who won the Byron Nelson CJ Cup last year, has lots of experience of the venue and the video below provides a great feel for what looks like a fabulous new host course.

The North Course is a par 70 with just two par fives - the opening hole and the finishing hole.

The course was used for the final event on the PGA Tour Americas Tour in September last year when Will Cannon took the title with a five-under-par total.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports Golf all four days, starting at 17:00 on Thursday.

Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Robert Macintyre -16 110.0109/1
2023 - Nick Taylor -17 (playoff) 95.094/1
2022 - Rory McIlroy -19 11.010/1
2020 & 2021 cancelled due to the pandemic
2019 - Rory McIlroy -22 13.012/1
2018 - Dustin Johnson -23 7.413/2
2017 - Jhonattan Vegas -21 (playoff) 180.0179/1
2016 - Jhonattan Vegas -12 150.0149/1
2015 - Jason Day -17 10.09/1 

What Will it Take to Win the Canadian Open?

Given we're at a brand-new venue, we don't have any previous course form to ponder and last year's Fortinet Cup doesn't provide any clues either.

No stats were produced at that event, and we can't really gauge much from the winning score of just -5.

The tournament was played out in windy conditions, and the course was playing fast and hard in late summer.

There won't be a premium on driving accuracy this week and expect the tournament to be decided on and around the greens.

Will we witness another home win?

Prior to Nick Taylor's victory two years ago, no Canadian had won this event since Pat Fletcher way back in 1954, but the locals often contend and one or two often finish the week in the places.

Corey Connors finished sixth from off the pace three years ago, Adam Hadwin began the final round trailing by just a stroke six years ago but faded to finish sixth, and Mackenzie Hughes was eight in 2018.

Mike Weir was matched at 1.041/25 in-running back in 2004, having led by three with a round to go, so taking on the Canadians had been a profitable exercise up until 2023. But Taylor's victory may change how the home contingency fare going forward.

Pendrith knows the course very well and a couple of Canadians contended again 12 months ago. Connors finished sixth and Hughes seventh so a second home win in three years can't be discounted.

Will Rory rack up the hattrick?

Rory McIlroy has been given a bit of flak for swerving another Signature Event.

He didn't make it to Harbour Town for the RBC Heritage after winning the US Masters in April and he plumped for playing here instead of playing in the Memorial Tournament last week ahead of next week's US Open at Oakmont. I can see why he made the decision.

The world number two has form figures at Muirfield Village (home of the Memorial) reading 10-5-MC-57-15-4-8-MC-32-18-18-7-15 so it's a venue that doesn't really suit his eye, but he has a fabulous recent record in this event, with event figures reading 1-1-9-4.

He's cooled off a bit after completing the major grand slam at Augusta, but this venue should suit him nicely and he's going to be the man to beat this week.

In-Play Tactics

If the single result at the venue can be believed, a slow start can be overcome here. The winner, Will Cannon, sat tied for 50^th and eight off the lead after round one and he was still four adrift at halfway.

Michael Brennan led by one over Luke Long with a round to go, with Cannon three off the pace in third, but the front two shot rounds of 74 and 73 on Sunday, so Cannon's one-under-par 69 was enough to see him win by one over the fast-finishing Sandy Scott.

Scott shot 66 in round four to move up from tied 14^th place and seven off the lead to solo second.

Whether we can give that one result too much credence is debatable, especially given the event was played out in windy conditions.

Rory a very fair price

Rory McIlroy is no bigger than 9/25.50 on the High Street and that price is perfectly fair, so I was more than happy to take 6.411/2 on the Exchange.

As highlighted above, he clearly enjoys this event and swerving last week's Memorial Tournament should prove to be a good decision.

Rory has a very fair recent record in events played prior to a major championship and on the two occasions he won this event previously - in 2019 and 2022 - he did so one week before the US Opens at Pebble Beach and Brookline, where he went on to finish ninth and fifth.

Currently a 9.89/1 chance on the Exchange, with recent US Open figures reading 9-8-7-5-2-2, Rory is highly likely to be a contender at Oakmont next week. He has a strong chance of lining up there having chalked up his fourth PGA Tour victory of the year following wins at Pebble Beach, Sawgrass and Augusta.

Given its position in the schedule, following last week's Signature Event and ahead of next week's US Open, this is not a strong renewal, and Rory is only a point bigger than he was to win the US PGA Championship last time out.

He was never at the races in last year's edition of the Canadian Open, sitting tied for 30^th and 10 off the lead at halfway, but he still finished fourth.

He signed off 2024 with an impressive victory at the DP World Tour Championship in November and he has a 30% strike-rate in 2025. Odds of above 5/16.00 are very fair.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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