The Punter's In-Play Blog: Bradley back in front in Colorado

• Langasque the play in Denmark

• Aberg the biggest danger to the frontrunner in Colorado

• Leaders could be vulnerable to a classy closer

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08:25 - August 25, 2024

After a steady one-under-par 35 on the front nine yesterday, pre-event 200.0199/1 chance, Lucas Bjerregaard, burst into life with a run of four birdies in five holes at the Danish Golf Championship on the DP World Tour and he heads into today's fourth and final round with a two-shot lead. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:15.

Lucas Bjerregaard -12 2.767/4
Romain Langasque -10 4.1
Jacob Skov Olesen -9 16.015/1
Frederic Lacroix -8 14.013/1
John Axelsen -9 23.022/1
Andrew Wilson -8 25.024/1
Adrien Saddier -7 30.029/1
Sam Jones -7 70.069/1
Martin Simonsen -7 80.079/1
Kristoffer Reitan -7 90.089/1
-6 and 60.059/1 bar

Bjerregaard, a two-time DP World Tour winner, is clearly the man to beat and on the only previous occasion he's held a clear advantage with a round to go, at the Portugal Masters back in 2017, he went on to win by four.

He has however been tied for the lead through 54 holes on three occasions without winning and given he's now plying his trade on the Challenge Tour, where he ranks 36^th on the Road to Mallorca standings, victory in his homeland today would be huge.

He had this to say after yesterday's bogey-free 66.

"I think I've been in a different position this year than I've been used to. I don't have very good status on the Challenge Tour, so I've been playing on invites and top-tens and so on.

"So, I haven't been able to plan very much so it's been one day at a time. And I think that's really what's been working well for me, so I'll try to do that again tomorrow.

"I just need to stay in the moment. I haven't been able to plan very well and that's been good for me. I'll just try and do a bit more of that. I've been struggling and had hard times the last couple of years, so everything is just one step at a time and trying to survive."

Bjerregaard came into the event in reasonable form following three straight top-tens on the Challenge Tour so this performance isn't out of the blue but it's hard to make a case for him being a value play at less than 2/13.00.

He's going to be under immense pressure with so much on the line and he looks one to swerve.

Romain Langasque is his closest rival and odds in excess of 3/14.00 look very fair about the Frenchman.

Langasque recently finished ninth in the BMW International Open and third at the Scottish Open so he's been in fair form. And his sole success to date on the DP World Tour came at the Wales Open back in 2020, at Celtic Manor, a track that incorporated the nine-hole Wentwood Hills Course which was designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr, the man responsible for this week's host course - Lübker Golf Resort.

Danish amateur, Jacob Skov Olesen, sits alone in third but as much as he's enjoying the home support, winning on the DP World Tour would be a massive step up and I can see why he's trading at as big as he is.

I'll be cheering on my halfway pick, Frederic Lacroix, who finished round three with three birdies in his last five holes to remain in touch, but I've also added fellow Frenchman, Langasque, who looks primed to take advantage of any nerves from the home contingent.

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Bradley back in front

The halfway leader, Adam Scott, set the tone for Moving Day at the BMW Championship yesterday when he drove out of bounds at the opening hole.

The veteran Aussie played his first four holes in four over par and on a consistently blustery day in Colorado, the leaderboard changed several times.

Ludvig Aberg was matched at a low of 1.9720/21 after a fast start but he made back-to-back bogeys after playing his first five holes in three-under-par and despite of a run of three straight bogeys from the 11^th, after finishing with a pair of birdies, the first-round leader, Keegan Bradley, ended round three back in front. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:20.

Keegan Bradley -12 3.65
Adam Scott -11 4.57/2
Ludwig Aberg -10 4.84/1
Alex Noren -10 8.27/1
Xander Schauffele -7 13.5
Wyndham Clark -7 25.024/1
Si Woo Kim -6 150.0149/1
Taylor Pendrith -6 150.0149/1
Rory McIlroy -5 90.089/1
Patrick Cantley -5 110.0109/1
-5 and 180.0179/1 bar

Bradley has led or been tied for the lead after three rounds six times previously on the PGA Tour. He's only successfully converted once, at the Travelers Championship last year, but we shouldn't expect him to yield easily given he's finished second on the other five occasions. He's gutsy and he knows how to scrap.

He has a great chance to win the title for a second time, having won it back in 2018, but my big concern remains to be his putting. Bradley ranks 19^th for Strokes Gained Putting after three rounds and that's the worst ranking of anyone inside the top eight places. He needs to start holing a few more if he's going to go on and justify favouritism with a round to go and that's my biggest concern.

Scott, Aberg and Alex Noren are the only three players within five strokes of the frontrunner and Aberg looks the most dangerous of the three.

Scott could bounce back after yesterday's roller-coaster round, but Aberg looks better value at slightly bigger given he trails Bradley by two and Scott by just one.

Noren finished his third round in style, birdying the last three holes to get to within two of the leader but the veteran Swede is yet to win on the PGA Tour and that has to be viewed as something of a negative.

It's a tough tournament to predict. We're bound to see plenty of volatility on the leaderboard and the door might just be opened wide enough for a chaser to come from off the pace and pinch the prize.

Xander Schauffele is back in the frame after a five-under-par 67 in round three and the home hero, Wyndham Clark, helped his cause greatly with an eagle at the 17^th hole yesterday to draw alongside the Open Champion.

Those two will be ready to pounce if the front four faff about and we can't rule out someone winning from even further back but I'm going to leave the event alone for now.

Having backed Schauffele after round one and Bradley and Clark at halfway, I've got chances heading into round four so I'm going to sit back and enjoy the show.

Castle Pines has been a great watch so far this week and I suspect we'll witness plenty of drama again today.

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11:15 - August 24, 2024

The wind picked up to such an extent yesterday afternoon that play had to be suspended for the day at the Danish Golf Championship with the final group having played only six holes of their second rounds.

The defending champion, Rasmus Hojgaard, was matched at a low of just 2.226/5 when he led by two after five holes of his second round but when play was suspended, he was one of five men tied for the lead.

Play resumed this morning with as many as 21 players within two of the lead but it's another Dane, Lucas Bjerregaard, that now shows the way at halfway.

Bjerregaard leads by two on -7 over a group of seven in a tie for second with ten players tied for ninth. It's a ridiculously tough tournament to predict but I'm happy to add a couple of in-play picks...

As highlighted in the preview, following the Olympics in Paris and David Ravetto's victory in Czechia last week, I had a hunch that the French contingent would continue to be inspired and that's been the case so far.

Adrien Saddier, Julien Guerrier, and Romain Langasque are amongst the group of seven tied for second, but I've chanced last week's third, Frederic Lacroix, who sits tied for ninth, and last week's winner, Ravetto, who sits four off Bjerregaard's lead.

The trio tied for second aren't great in-contention and Lacroix and Ravetto appear better value at 20.019/1 and 55.054/1 respectively.

Lacroix impressed last weekend when climbing from 34^th to third and Ravetto was an impressive winner.

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Over in Colorado, at the BMW Championship, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, and my pre-event pick, Hideki Matsuyama, dominated the market after round one but the world numbers one and two both failed to break par as the wind picked up in the afternoon and my man withdrew with a lower back injury. Not a nice way to do your dough!

Adam Scott, who missed the cut at this week's venue, Castle Pines, when playing in his first official PGA Tour event way back in 2000, and Sweden's Ludwig Aberg set the new course record with nine-under par 63s and they now dominate the market along with the first-round leader, Keegan Bradley. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:05.

Adam Scott -13 2.727/4
Keegan Bradley -10 8.415/2
Ludvig Aberg -9 5.39/2
Alex Noren -8 21.020/1
Taylor Pendrith -7 29.028/1
Corey Conners -6 34.033/1
Sungjae Im -6 34.033/1
Patrick Cantlay -5 27.026/1
Si Woo Kim -5 110.0109/1
Collin Morikawa -4 46.045/1
Wyndham Clark -4 48.047/1
-4 and 60.059/1 bar

Scott has a 50% strike-rate when holding a clear lead at halfway (9/18) but that dates all the way back to 2001 and it includes results on the DP World, Asian, and Australasian Tours, as well as the PGA Tour. And his recent record isn't great.

In the last ten years, he's held a clear advantage only three times and he hasn't impressed.

He did win the now defunct WGC Cadilac Championship by a stroke in 2016, having led by two at halfway, but he had to battle back on Sunday after a 73 in round three saw him trailing by three with a round to go and either side of that victory, there were a pair of poor performances.

He finished third in the Arnold Palmer Invitational ten years ago, having led by seven at halfway, and he finished fifth in this event two years ago having led by one after 36 holes.

Scott played beautifully yesterday morning without any pressure but I'm far from convinced he'll find everything so easy today and he looks opposable at the price.

Aberg is the biggest danger to the leader according to the market but like Scotty, Aberg needs to back up yesterday's low round and that's notoriously hard to do.

Given how things have gone here so far, I probably should just call it a day, but I felt compelled to have a small bet on Coloradan, Wyndham Clark, who is very capable of going super-low over the weekend.

He missed the cut at the Open but in four of his last five starts he's improved his position greatly over the last two rounds and I was happy to take a small chance at 55.054/1.

He finished ninth in the Travelers Championship, having sat 16^th after two rounds, 10^th in the Scottish Open, where he sat 47^th at halfway, he moved from 46^th to 14^th at the Olympics in Paris and only last week he finished seventh in the FedEx St Jude Championship having sat 27^th at halfway.

I'm happy to play Clark modestly at a juicy price but as highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, this venue has tended to suit the frontrunners so my idea of the best value at halfway is the gutsy US Ryder Cup captain, Bradley.

The surprise 2018 BMW winner is universally available at 11/26.50 and 6/17.00 on the High Street and that looks correct so the 8.415/2 available on the Exchange has some juice in it.

Bradley hasn't putted as nicely as the two market leaders, who rank first and second for Putting Average, but he ranks first for Greens In Regulation and second for Strokes Gained: Tee-to Green.

If Scott and Aberg do cool off today and Bradley holes one or two more putts, he might just find himself in a great position with a round to go.

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09:35 - August 23, 2024

Ranking at 50 in the FedEx Cup standings, the 2018 BMW winner, Keegan Bradley, was the last man into the field at the BMW Championship this week but he shows the way after a six-under-par 66 around Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado. Although he really should be tied at the top...

My pre-event fancy, Hideki Matsuyama, who drifted all the way out to a remarkable 27.026/1 before the off, had holed the longest put of his PGA Tour when he made his third birdie in-a-row from 73 feet on the fourth hole but after an irritating three-hour weather delay, he missed a two-foot birdie putt at the 18^th to tie Bradley at the top.

Coming in hot from downtown
@HidekiOfficial_ with his third-straight birdie from 73 feet on No. 4 @BMWChamps. pic.twitter.com/JvQCOtoq1m

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 22, 2024

At number one in the FedEx Cup standings, as well as number one in the world rankings, Scottie Scheffler trails by five following a one-under-par 71 and he trades at 7.413/2 this morning - the same price as Matsuyama - but injury may just hinder him over the next three days at a long and undulating venue.

Scheffler was feeling his back during round one and had this to say afterwards.

"I woke up just a little sore this morning. I had trouble kind of loosening it up," he said. "I was labouring most of the day to get through the ball. On 17, I was trying to hit a high draw, and that's a shot where I've really got to use a big turn, big motion. Really just felt it a little bit. But other than that, all good."

After a stress-free three-under-par 69, the man immediately behind Scheffler in the FedEx Cup standings and the World Rankings, Xander Schauffele, is the 5/16.00 favourite on the Exchange and that price is more than fair.

He's been playing nicely for months now, and he appeared calm, composed, and ready to move forward over the next three days when interviewed after his opening round yesterday.

With an eye on next week's Tour Championship, which has been won by the BMW Championship winner in two of the last three years and on five occasions in total, Schauffele looks worth chancing here.

He has a fabulous record at East Lake and he's yet to win the FedEx Cup. And that's something of a plus given Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy are the only players to win it more than once.

The second round of the Danish Championship is underway and afternoon starter and defending champion, Rasmus Hojgaard, still leads after yesterday morning's opening six-under-par 65 around the new venue - Lübker Golf Resort.

With nobody making a huge move this morning, the Dane has now been matched at a low of 3.9 but I'll be back at the halfway stage to look at that event.

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BMW Championship Pre-Event Pick:
Hideki Matsuyama @ 22.021/1

In-Play Picks:
Xander Schauffele @ 6.25/1
Keegan Bradley @ 8.415/2
Wyndham Clark @ 55.054/1

Danidh Championship Pre-Event Pick:
Nacho Elvira @ 90.089/1

In-Play Picks:
Frederic Lacroix @ 20.019/1
David Ravetto @ 55.054/1
Romain Langasque @ 4.216/5

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