BMW Championship: Matsuyama can win back-to-back at 21/1

• Hot putters set to shine in Colorado

• Matsuyama looks to double up

• Not a great event for longshots

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Tournament History

The BMW Championship was introduced to the PGA Tour schedule in 2007 when it replaced the Western Open to become the third leg of the brand-new FedEx Cup Playoff Series. The Western Open dated all the way back to 1899 and only the Open Championship and US Open date back further.

The format of the Playoff Series changed in 2019 with only three events instead of four so following the FedEx St Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, the BMW Championship is restricted to the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings only and following this event, the standings are recalculated again and only the top 30 advance to the series deciding Tour Championship at East Lake next week.

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Venue

Castle Pines Golf Club, Castle Rock, Colorado

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Course Details

Par 72, 8,130 yards

The Jack Nicklaus designed Castle Pines Golf Club officially opened in October of 1981.

With two nines both stretching to in excess of 4,000 yards, Castle Pines is a very long track and it's the longest ever used on the PGA Tour but situated some 30 miles south of Denver in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, at more than 6,000 feet above sea level, the course doesn't play anywhere close to its actual yardage, with the ball travelling around 10 to 15% further in the thin mountain air.

Castle Pines has large, fast bentgrass greens and three of its four par fives measure more than 600 yards long.

The course has been lengthened since it hosted a now defunct Modified Stableford event on the PGA Tour called the International between 1986 and 2006.

For more on the course, this hole-by-hole clip narrated by Jin Nantz is a must watch.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 19:00 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2021 - Viktor Hovland -17 21.020/1
2020 - Patrick Cantlay -14 22.021/1
2021 - Patrick Cantlay -27 (playoff) 27.026/1
2020 - Jon Rahm -4 (playoff) 12.011/1
2019 - Justin Thomas -25 16.015/1
2018 - Keegan Bradley -20 (playoff) 210.0209/1
2017 - Marc Leishman -23 55.054/1
2016 - Dustin Johnson -23 11.010/1

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What Will it Take to Win the BMW Championship?

It may not be too wise to give the results of the International too much credence but for what it's worth, a good week with the putter was nearly always key.

Like the Barracuda Championship (since 2012), the International used the Modified Stableford scoring system, which is very different to traditional stroke play. Points are awarded for birdies, eagles and albatrosses and points are lost for bogeys and double-bogeys and the system encourages an offensive style of play.

There were no stats produced before 2003 but looking at the last four editions of the International, way before Strokes Gained number were used, Putting Average was always the key stat.

The first three in 2003 ranked first, third and second for Putting Average and the first seven home in 2004 ranked third, ninth, 15^th, 23^rd, seventh, fifth, first and second.

Nobody putted better than the winner, Retief Goosen, in 2005 and the front four ranked first, fifth, 18^th and second and in the final edition of the event 12 months later, the front three ranked second, 17^th and ninth and the best putter for the week, Bubba Watson, finished tied for sixth.

Look to the best putters in the field and if they putt especially well on bentgrass greens, that's all the better.

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Is There an Angle In?

Last year's winner, Viktor Hovland, had finished the FedEx St Jude Championship nicely the week before, shooting 64-65-69 to finish 13^th, having sat 59^th after round one, but with form figures reading 19-29-25-13-13 since he'd won the Memorial Tournament in June, his current form wasn't typical of a BMW Championship winner.

Patrick Cantlay had finished only 57^th in the FedEx St Jude the week before he defended the title two years ago but prior to that he'd finished fourth in the Scottish Open, eighth in the Open Championship and second in the Rocket Mortgage Classic so he was in fair form overall.

He wasn't in great form in 2021, but he'd finished 11^th in the Northen Trust the week before he won (the first of the three Playoff events three years ago) and the front two were both in great nick in 2020.

Dustin Johnson came into the event having finished second to Collin Morikawa in the US PGA Championship and first in the Northern Trust the week before and Jon Rahm had finished sixth behind Johnson.

The 2019 winner, Justin Thomas, had finished inside the top 12 in each of his previous four starts and they were all big events, so he was bang in form. And in the old format, when this event was the third of four FedEx Cup Playoff Series events (up until 2018) all the winners had been in really good form.

Huge outsider, Keegan Bradley, took the title in 2018 having finished 42^nd at the US PGA, 34^th in the Northern Trust and 49^th at the Dell Technologies, in his three previous starts but he'd been fourth at the Canadian Open before that, so his win didn't come entirely out of the blue, and he's very much the outlier. In addition to Cantlay (twice), Rahm and Thomas, the first 11 winners of this event had all shown something recently.

Being in fair recent form has been almost essential and the first 11 tournament winners had all finished inside the top-ten in one of their two previous starts. That run ended in 2018 but given the winner here, JustinThomas, had finished ninth in the Scottish Open and Bradley had finished fourth in Canada, every single winner of this event, bar Cantlay in 2021 and Hovland 12 months ago, has recorded a top-ten in one of their four previous starts.

Strong current form looks key so those that have made it this far thanks to strong form earlier in the year might be worth swerving and after Hovland won both this event and the Tour Championship last year, we've now seen someone win two FedEx Cup Playoff events in nine of the last 11 years, and on a staggering 12 occasions in total. Can Hideki Matsuyama double up?

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Although major winners Retief Goosen, Davis Love, Rich Beem, Ernie Els, David Toms, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson and Lee Janzen won eight of the last 12 editions of the International, longshots fared well here in that event too.

Toms (125/1126.00) and Beem (200/1201.00) were both big outsiders and six of the last 11 winners went off at huge odds but I doubt we'll see a longshot win here in this event.

Keegan Bradley was very much a surprise winner six years ago, when the top-70 in the FedEx Cup standings still qualified. He came into the event ranking 52^nd in the standings and he was a 210.0209/1 chance before the off but he's the only big outsider to take the title so far.

Looking back over the events history, with the possible exception of Camilo Villegas 15 years ago, whose price I can't recall or find, we hadn't seen any wild outsiders before Bradley and seven of the last nine winners have been very prominent in the market.

Leishman was matched at 55.054/1 before the off seven years ago but the two winners before him were first and second favourites, Thomas was the third favourite in 2019, the second favourite, Rahm, beat the favourite, DJ, in extra time in 2020 and the last three winners have been priced at between 21.020/1 and 27.026/1.

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In-Play Tactics

Again, we need to be careful given the format of the now defunct International, but up with the pace was usually the place to be in that event.

The last two winners made up a bit of ground over the weekend but the 2004 winner, Rod Pampling, had sat second at halfway and when Davis Love took the title for a second time in 2003, he was the sixth halfway leader to win in seven years and the only 36-hole leader not to win in that period, 100/1101.00 shot, Steve Lowry, in 2002, went on to finish second.

I'll be back later today or tomorrow with a look at the market leaders and a summary of any pre-event selections.

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Market Leaders

Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are the two highest-ranked players in the Official World rankings and they sit one and two in the FedEx Cup standings so it's completely understandable that they head the market here. And they both look reasonably priced.

Scheffler is seeking his eighth victory in 14 starts so odds of around 4/15.00 in an event that tends to go to a well-fancied player look fair.

He finished fourth last week without ever really looking like winning but that was a reasonable effort given his course form figures reading - MC-43-15-14-MC-31 - suggested TPC Southwind wouldn't be one of his favourite tracks.

Schauffele, who was matched at a low of 2.89/5 last week before finishing toed for second behind Hideki Matsuyama, is also in cracking form and he's in search of his third win in his last nine starts. Odds in excess of 7/18.00 look reasonable.

Rory McIlroy makes little appeal after a poor performance in Memphis last week and the fourth favourite, Collin Morikawa, is finding it tough to get his head in front when it matters, although he does have a very strong record at Jack Nicklaus designed courses.

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Selection

As highlighted above, it's common to see someone win more than one FedEx Cup playoff event and previous results at this venue suggest a hot putter is essential so I'm more than happy to play last week's winner, Hideki Matsuyama, at 22.021/1 given he topped the Strokes Gained: Putting stats in Memphis last week.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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